Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.623 | EURUSD 1.21486 | AUDUSD 0.78408 | NZDUSD 0.72684 | USDCAD 1.21013 | USDCHF 0.90357 | GBPUSD 1.41406 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21512 | 1.21157
USDJPY 108.909 | 108.597
GBPUSD 1.41478 | 1.41081
USDCHF 0.90584 | 0.90291
AUDUSD 0.78524 | 0.77865
NZDUSD 0.72779 | 0.72278
USDCAD 1.21321 | 1.2093
EURCHF 1.09820 | 1.09749
EURGBP 0.85972 | 0.85836
EURJPY 132.098 | 131.875
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the highs for the day, the Cable held just below the 1.4150 area through to the Tokyo session before starting a steady drift through the session to test to just below the 1.4110 level for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 1.4100 level and then continuing in the same vein through the 1.4050 level with slightly stronger congestive bids through into the 1.4000 area with weak stops likely to open a move through into the low 1.39 handle before finding some congestive bids into the 1.3950-1.3900 levels, Topside offers light through to the 1.4200 area where stronger offers are likely to be waiting possible stronger stops through the 1.4220 area possible and opening the possibility of moving through to the 1.4280-1.4300 area before hitting stronger offers.
- JPY: USD buying through the session, moving off a patchy opening with the market testing below the 108.60 level from the opening before moving into Tokyo and a steady stream of buying through to the 108.90 level fand holding around the 108.85 area into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Holding around the 0.7840 area opening into the Tokyo session before USD buying and testing steadily through to the 0.7785 area for the low of the session before finding some buying to hold the market above the 0.7780 for the grey hour, downside weak stops through the 0.7780 area and possible sellers joining the market on a move through to test through to the 0.7740-60 area for weak congestion before stronger bids into the 0.7720 levels and stops again appearing around the 80 levels through 0.7700, Topside offers light through to the 0.7850 area with light offers then through to the 0.7900 area and stronger congestion with weak stops through the 0.7920 level however, stronger congestion then continues through to the 80 cents area and is likely to increase in size the high it goes.
- EUR: Drifting from the 1.2150 highs and falling back steadily on the move into the Tokyo session to steadily push through to the 1.2115 area before finding some bids through into the 1.2100 level, Downside bids likely to be limited on a dip through to the 1.2110 area and opening up the possibility of stronger stops through the 1.2080 level with weakness continuing through to the 1.2000 before finding a little stronger bids. Topside offers through the 1.2160 area and increasing into the 1.2200 level with weak stops likely to be absent and congestion through to the 1.2220 level before hopping any possibility of testing the highs of the year through 1.2300 and stronger stops still likely to slow any further movement.
Overnight News
USD:
California announces whopping $75b budget surplus – AXS
SEC warns of volatility, lack of regulation in Bitcoin market – BBG
AUD:
Frydenberg’s $29b tax cut surprise – AFR
Today’s Data
AUD Building Approvals MoM A 17.4% | P 21.6%
0700 GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q1) (P) A | P 5.9%
0700 GBP GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A | C -6.1% | P -7.3%
0700 GBP GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C -1.6% | P 1.3%
0700 GBP Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
0700 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (MAR) A | C 1.0% | P 1.3%
0700 GBP Trade Balance (MAR) A | C -14.40b | P -16.44b
0700 GBP Trade Balance (MAR) A | C -3.50b | P -10.73b
0700 EUR German CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
0855 EUR ECBV’s Enria Speaks
1000 GBP Gov. Bailey Speaks
Tentative CNY New Loans A | P 2,730.0b
1000 EUR Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A | C 0.7% | P -1.0%
1330 USD Core CPI YoY (APR) A | C 2.3% | P 1.6%
1330 USD Core CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
1330 USD CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.2% | P 0.6%
1400 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A | P -1.5%
1400 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.817m | P -7.990m
1700 USD WASDE Report
1800 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1830 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
1900 USD Federal Budget Balance (APR) A | C -220.0b | P -660.0b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Generally, a quiet day with the market opening around the 1.4120 level and ranging through into the Tokyo session and basing along the 1.4115 area through into London and unable to push beyond the 1.4125 level until the London session had shown a weak move to the lows around the 1.4105 area and a steady rise from there to push above the 1.4150 into the NYK session for the first time, there was several pushes through the NYK session with the high extended through the 1.4165 level in limited push before drifting back for the move to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 108.80 area with a move through into the Tokyo session holding around the level through to the Tokyo fix where buying towards the 108.95 area for the first time before drifting back to the opening, the move through the grey hour saw the market again testing towards the 109.00 level before heading into the London session and a steady move through the early part of London and dipping through the NYK opening testing the 108.35 level before finding a little bit of buying and recovering to finish the day around the 108.60 level.
- AUD: A quiet range through the day with the market centring around the 0.7840 area through the day, opening around the 0.7830 area with the market ranging around that point through into the grey hour, dipping towards the 0.7820 area the market pushed from the London opening to test above the 0.7840 and ranged through the balance of the session through into NYK where sellers initially made the low on the 0.7820 level before bouncing through to push above the 0.7845 and an ever decreasing range to hold around the 0.7840 into the close.
- EUR: Limited range through the Asian session with the market rising from the opening around the 1.2130 level to test through the 1.2140 for the Tokyo session before drifting a little for the move through the Tokyo fix testing through to the 1.2125 level, a light recovery pushing this time through to the 1.2150 area before heading into the grey hour holding the 1.2140 before early London tested through to the low 1.2120’s for the lows of the day moving a little quicker for the London opening to test through to above the 1.2160 level and a tight range through to NYK, opening in NYK saw a quick test of the 1.2180 level before dropping quickly to the 1.2150 level again rising to range in the 1.2160-70 area until the London close before drifting to finish the day just below the 1.2150.
Premier Results
GBP BRC retail Sales Monitor YoY (APR) A 39.6% | P 20.3%
JPY Household Spending YoY (MAR) A 6.2% | C 1.5% | P -6.6%
CNY CPI MoM (APR) A -0.3% | C -0.2% | P -0.5%
CNY CPI YoY (APR) A 0.9% | C 1.0% | P 0.4%
CNY PPI YoY (APR) A 6.8% | C 6.5% | P 4.4%
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (MAY) A -40.1 | C -41.3 | P -48.8
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (MAY) A 84.4 | C 72.0 | P 70.7
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (MAY) A 84.0 | P 66.3
USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR) A 8.123m | C 7.500m | P 7.526m
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -2.533m | C -2.250m | P -7.688m
Best Regards
Andy
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