Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.703 | EURUSD 1.20706 | AUDUSD 0.77246 | NZDUSD 0.71617 | USDCAD 1.21338 | USDCHF 0.90902 | GBPUSD 1.40549 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20885 | 1.20687
USDJPY 109.787 | 109.484
GBPUSD 1.40777 | 1.40513
USDCHF 0.90947 | 0.90768
AUDUSD 0.77580 | 0.77169
NZDUSD 0.71782 | 0.71498
USDCAD 1.21356 | 1.21037
EURCHF 1.09769 | 1.09670
EURGBP 0.85932 | 0.8583
EURJPY 132.535 | 132.332
For Today
- GBP: A light push through to the 1.4070 area from the 1.4055 opening level saw the market moving into the Tokyo session and a dip for the fix to make the low around the 1.4050 area, a steady rise from that point through to just short of the 1.4080 level and a slow drift from there for the move to the grey hour unchanged on the day, downside bids through the 1.4000 level quickly run into weak stops and congestive bids competing through to the 1.3950 area and increasing bids from there to the 1.3900 level and stops then beyond the area opening a deeper move, topside offers through to the 1.4150 level and increasing into the 1.4200 level with weak stops likely on a push through Feb’s highs around the 1.4220 area. Opening the market to the next leg through to the 1.4400 area.
- JPY: Limited day with the market moving to the highs during the Tokyo fix to test towards the 109.80 area before dipping back through the 109.65 opening levels on its way to test the 109.50 area, from there it was a slower grind through to the 109.75 area to hold just below through into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Very quiet and limited movement rising from a nervous opening only to dip on the Tokyo fix to the 0.7720 level and then a slow rise through to the 0.7745 area for the high, the market then drifted from there pushing back through the 0.7730 opening level, Topside offers light through to the 0.7880 area and likely to be strong offers continuing through to the 0.7920 area before weak stops appear and the market then running into further resistance once it starts projecting through the 0.7960 area with increasing offers the closer to the significant sentimental levels into 80 cents, downside bids into the 0.7700 area and weak stops on an extension through the 0.7680 area but quickly running into supportive bids into the 0.7650 area and continuing through to 0.7600 level with some possibly decent bids mixed with weak stops.
- EUR: Very light rise from the opening lows around the 1.2070 area to push gradually towards the 1.2090 area for the movement into the midsession before slowly drifting back to the low opening area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2160 area and increasing into the 1.2200 level with weak stops likely to be absent and congestion through to the 1.2220 level before hopping any possibility of testing the highs of the year through 1.2300 and stronger stops still likely to slow any further movement. Downside bids light through to the 1.2020 area and then stronger bids starting to form in the area, weak stops on a move through the 1.1980 area opening a chance of a quick break back to the 1.1900 level before stronger bids appear.
Overnight News
AUD:
Australia’s robust fiscal performance reduces rating risk – BBG
NZD:
Tomatoes and Cucumbers drive up April food price – GO6
GBP:
BoE’s Haldane sees UK inflation above 2% target by year end – BBG
Today’s Data
CHF Holiday Ascension Day
GBP RICS House Price Balance (APR) A 75% | C 62% | P 59% | R 62%
JPY Current Account n.s.a. (MAR) A 2.650t | C 2.796t | P 2.917t
1300 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1330 USD Core PPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.7%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 490k | P 498k
1330 USD PPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.3% | P 1.0%
1600 CAD BoC Gov. Macklem Speaks
1700 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1800 USD FED Waller Speaks
2100 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
2330 NZD Business NZ PMI (APR) A | P 63.6
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow drift through the Asian session with USD buying moving through and the Cable testing through into midsession pushing the 1.4115 area before recovering for the move into the grey hour, a quiet range through London holding around the around the 1.4135 area before dipping for the opening in NYK testing quickly to the 1.4080 level bouncing back to make the high above the 1.4150 before steadily dropping back through to the London close pushing towards the 1.4050 level and a long run out to the close remaining just above the low.
- JPY: Opening on its lows the market moved off the 108.60 area into the Tokyo session and pushing through to the 108.90 area into mid-Tokyo then holing in a tight range through to the grey hour, a slow drift through the London morning saw the market falling back towards the 108.65 area only and once the NYK session moved in the market sparked a little higher with CPI numbers pressuring the USD higher through to the 109.60 level before levelling off and a run to the close testing the 109.70 areas.
- AUD: As with others opening on its highs and holding in a tight range through into the Tokyo session, a steady decline through into midsession in Tokyo saw the AUD holding around the 0.7785 area and holding through into the London session ranging around the 0.7800 area through to the NYK session and after a bit of a bounce to and from the 0.7760 area back to the 0.7800-10 area and then sliding steadily off through to the 0.7720 area and a limited range through to the close.
- EUR: Opening towards the highs the market drifted through the Tokyo session testing back to the 1.2115 area for the move through midsession, a light recovery for the grey hour and slow range in London only saw the market moving once the NYK session opened, dipping to the 1.2070 low area before bouncing and extending the opening highs to touch just through the 1.2150 level before dropping steadily back again and running through to the London close pushing the 1.2065 area low of the day and holding quietly around the 1.2075 for the close.
Premier Results
AUD Building Approvals MoM A 17.4% | P 21.6%
GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q1) (P) A -11.9% | P 5.9%
GBP GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A -6.1% | C -6.1% | P -7.3%
GBP GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -1.5% | C -1.6% | P 1.3%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A 2.1% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (MAR) A 1.8% | C 1.0% | P 1.3%
GBP Trade Balance (MAR) A -11.71b | C -14.40b | P -16.44b | R -10.51b
GBP Trade Balance non-EU (MAR) A -6.55b | C -3.50b | P -10.73b | R -5.14b
EUR German CPI MoM (APR) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
EUR ECBV’s Enria Speaks
GBP Gov. Bailey Speaks
CNY New Loans A 1,470.0b | P 2,730.0b
EUR Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A 0.1% | C 0.7% | P -1.0% | R -1.2%
USD Core CPI YoY (APR) A 3.0% | C 2.3% | P 1.6%
USD Core CPI MoM (APR) A 0.9% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
USD CPI MoM (APR) A 0.8% | C 0.2% | P 0.6%
GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A 1.3% | P -1.5%
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -0.427m | C -2.817m | P -7.990m
USD WASDE Report
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD Federal Budget Balance (APR) A -226.0b | C -220.0b | P -660.0b
Best Regards
Andy
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