Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.889 | EURUSD 1.22231 | AUDUSD 0.77901 | NZDUSD 0.72499 | USDCAD 1.20614 | USDCHF 0.89776 | GBPUSD 1.41882 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.22352 | 1.22173
USDJPY 109.074 | 108.832
GBPUSD 1.42001 | 1.41802
USDCHF 0.89843 | 0.89719
AUDUSD 0.78091 | 0.77785
NZDUSD 0.72486 | 0.72275
USDCAD 1.20800 | 1.20619
EURCHF 1.09802 | 1.09703
EURGBP 0.86214 | 0.86104
EURJPY 133.325 | 133.056
For Today
- GBP: A quiet session with the market opening around the 1.4190 level making a brief push through the 1.4200 level before drifting through to test the 1.4180 and end up unchanged for the move into the grey hour, Topside offer through the 1.4200 level with weak stops likely to open a test through to the 1.4250 before stronger offers start to appear through to the 1.4300 level and a long term trend line likely to have attracted option barriers, a break here does however likely see stronger stops appearing and the market opening to a larger move towards the 1.47-1.48 area. Downside bids light into the 1.4100 with weak stops on a move through the level to test quickly through weak sentimental 1.4050 and stronger bids then appearing for any test of the 1.4000 level.
- JPY: Rising slightly for the move into the Tokyo session with the market then dipping on supply for the Tokyo fix and a test towards the 108.80 area before slowly pushing through the 109.00 level but never quiet making the 109.10 area, the market then gave it back and moved into the grey hour unchanged, Downside light through the 109.00 level with weak stops below the 108.80 and opening the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: An unsteady opening saw the high of the day around the 0.7805 area before dipping quickly back to the 0.7790 area and light trading through into the Tokyo session, slow drift through to base around the 0.7780 area before recovering for the grey hour to the 0.7790 area. Downside bids light through the 0.7750 area and stronger bids likely continue through to the 0.7700 area before weak stops appear below the 0.7680 and a stronger 0.7650 area then holds the downside, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79 cent level.
- EUR: Eventually ranging higher however, a very quiet start to the session saw the opening around the 1.2225 level holding through deep into Tokyo before testing lightly above the 1.2230 area only to slip back to just below the 1.2220 level and a longer steady rise through into the grey hour pushing the 1.2235 level and yesterdays high, Topside offers strong through the 1.2250 level and increasing on a push above the 1.2300 level all the way to the 1.2350 before weak stops are joined by buyers on the move through the highs of the last couple of years, downside bids light through the 1.2200 area and weak stops likely on a dip through the level and opening a quick move through the 1.2150 area and towards 1.2100 where stronger bids are likely.
Overnight News
AUD:
Too many Australians are hesitant to get vaccinated – SYH
USD/CNY:
US delays China investment ban as Biden team aims to clarify policy scope – SMP
CNY/USD:
China Military opposes US destroyers Taiwan strait transit – BBG
GBP/AUD:
Tariff free imports from Australia a complete betrayal of British Farmers – TEL
EUR/Moody’s:
Moody’s: In Southern EU recovery funds will boost growth and cut debt, but long term benefits are more uncertain
EUR/CNY:
EU Parliament to vote to freeze China investment pact – BBG
Today’s Data
NZD PPI Input QoQ (Q1) A 2.1% | P 0.6% | R 0.1%
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment A -4.8% | P 6.2%
AUD Wage Price Index QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A | P 2.2%
0700 GBP CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.6% | P 0.3%
0700 GBP CPI YoY (APR) A | C 1.4% | P 0.7%
0700 GBP PPI Input MoM (APR) A | C 1.1% | P 1.3%
Tentative EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (APR) A | C 0.8% | P 0.9%
1000 EUR CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.6% | P 0.9%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (APR) A | C 1.6% | P 1.3%
1330 CAD Core CPI YoY (APR) A | P 1.4%
1330 CAD Core CPI MoM (APR) A | P 0.3%
1330 CAD CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C 1.623m | P -0.427m
1635 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Having opened around the 1.4140 level the market slowly pushed through to the 1.4175 for the move into the grey hour, with London continuing to buy through to the 1.4220 area before the first show of resistance however having made the move the market then held through London and into NYK around the 1.4200 area and then holding 1.4185 through to the close.
- JPY: A slow steady USD selloff through the day saw the early gains from the opening 109.20 level wiped out once the Tokyo Fix ended and with the 109.30 level the high for the day, the move through to the grey hour saw the market holding the 109.10 level in very quiet trading however the move through into the grey hour and then London opening saw the USDJPY pushing through to the 108.85 area and eventually dipping a pip or two lower for the days low into the NYK opening, a slow range through to the close holding sub 109 in a long run.
- AUD: After a messy opening the market returned to the 0.7770 level from the low just through the 0.7760 area and then once into the Tokyo session pushing gradually through the fix demand in Tokyo to hold around the 0.7790 area through to the grey hour, London were buyers from sitting down at their desks to push through the 0.7810 level for the high of the day, steady range through the balance of the session saw the market settling back below the 78 cents figure area for the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2155 area the Euro saw limited movement through the Tokyo session however, the move into the grey hour saw strong buying from the 1.2165 levels to push initially to the 1.2185 area and then grinding through to push the 1.2235 level with a little spike on the move into NYK opening, a slow drift through to the London close and then returning from the 1.2200 level to the 1.2225 area again for the close.
Premier Results
JPY GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -1.3% | C -1.2% | P 2.8%
JPY GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A -5.1% | C -4.6% | P 11.7% | R 11.6%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A 1.1% | P 0.3%
GBP Average Earnings Index + Bonus A 4.0% | C 4.5% | P 4.5%
GBP Claimant Count Change (APR) A -15.1k | P 10.1k | R -19.4k
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (MAR) A 84k | C 50k | P -73k
GBP Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 4.8% | C 4.9% | P 4.9%
EUR GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A -1.8% | C -1.8% | P -1.8%
EUR GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -0.6% | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
EUR Trade Balance (MAR) A 15.8b | P 17.7b | R 23.0b
USD Building Permits MoM (APR) A 0.3% | P 2.3% | R 1.7%
USD Building Permits (APR) A 1.760m | C 1.770m | P 1.759m | R 1.755m
USD Housing Starts MoM (APR) A -9.5% | P 19.4% | R 19.8%
USD Housing Starts (APR) A | C 1.71m | P 1.739m
CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.