Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.148 | EURUSD 1.21925 | AUDUSD 0.7743 | NZDUSD 0.72919 | USDCAD 1.21217 | USDCHF 0.89796 | GBPUSD 1.41205 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21972 | 1.21756
USDJPY 109.208 | 109.042
GBPUSD 1.41244 | 1.40919
USDCHF 0.89845 | 0.89725
AUDUSD 0.77454 | 0.77235
NZDUSD 0.72937 | 0.72664
USDCAD 1.21414 | 1.21202
EURCHF 1.09451 | 1.09386
EURGBP 0.86416 | 0.86282
EURJPY 133.126 | 132.938
For Today
- GBP: Long weekend saw USD buying appearing and paring back of positions, Tokyo saw the market moving away from the early 1.4125 level high to steadily dip through to the 1.4090 area before slowly recovering on a move through to the grey hour just short of the opening 1.4120 level, Topside offers light through the 1.4200 level however, very few stops and stronger offers starting to appear through to the 1.4250 level and then increasing through to the 1.4310 area before weakness and stops appear for a break through to the 1.44 level before sentimental offers increase, downside bids light through to the 1.4100 level before stronger bids appear for any move beyond the 1.4050 level as congestion and sentimental levels appear, further bids through the 1.4000 area are quickly covered with stops on a break through and then stronger bids through 1.3950 to the 1.3900 levels with limited stops
- JPY: Early USD buying from the Tokyo opening saw the market rise from the 109.15 opening area to test lightly through the 109.20 area and hold around the level for an hour or so not quiet triggering any weak stops and then dipping through into the midsession testing through to the 109.05 level before holding in the area through to the grey hour, Downside light through the 108.50 before opening the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Same pattern with the Oz dipping on the move into the Tokyo session through to the 0.7722 area before slowly recovering through the balance of the session to recapture the 0.7740 area open and just off the high for the move into the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79 cent level. Downside bids light through the 0.7750 area and stronger bids likely continue through to the 0.7700 area before weak stops appear below the 0.7680 and a stronger 0.7650 area then holds the downside
- EUR: Same pattern and same results really with the market more or less flat on the day so far having opened around the 1.2190 level testing to the 1.2195 and then dipping through into the Tokyo session to the 1.2175 area and then slowly recovering through to the grey hour unchanged, Topside offers congested through to the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.
Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr: Think we may be able to tighten mid to late 2022
Orr: Rates may rise next year if things evolve as expected
Orr: We have time, we need to be patient
Orr: Ongoing stimulus needed to meet policy goals
Orr: Some current inflation pressures will abate
Orr: Some extreme downside risks have abated
Orr: Labour market has been very resilient
Orr: Global economic outlook has continued to improve
Orr: RBNZ still willing to cut interest rates if needed
USD/CNY:
Biden’s Asia Czar Campbell says Era of engagement with Xi’s China is over – ICYMI
AUD:
Victoria state to enter 7-day lockdown on virus – BBG
Today’s Data
AUD Private New Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q1) A 6.3% | C 2.0% | P 3.0%
0700 EUR GfK Germany Consumer Climate (JUN) A | C -5.2% | P 8.8
0730 CHF Employment Level (Q1) A | P 5.135m
1045 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1200 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
1300 EUR German BuBa President Pres. Weidmann Speaks
1330 USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (APR) A | C 0.8% | P 2.3%
1330 USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (APR) A | C 0.7% | P 1.0%
1330 USD GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C 6.5% | P 6.4%
1330 USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C 4.1% | P 4.1%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 425k | P 444k
1400 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
1500 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (APR) A | C 0.8% | P 1.9%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Ranging around the 1.4150 for most of the day the market having opened in the area slowly pushed through deep into the Asian session before testing through to the 1.4170 level only to slowly drift through into the grey hour to test through to 1.4135, London were steady buyers to make the high just above the 1.4175 area only to fall back again on the move into the NYK session and while there was a brief move through the 1.4150 it ended up being the last time and dropped quickly back to drift to the 1.4115 level for the low of the day and hold quietly around the 1.4120 level to the close.
- JPY: A day of steady USDJPY buying with the market opening just below the 108.80 level and then struggling through the early part of the Tokyo session testing lightly below the 108.75 area before moving through midsession starting a slow recovery, the move through the grey hour saw the market testing above the 108.90 level and ranging around the level deep into the London session with the NYK opening taking it quickly above the 109.00 level and then repeating the move this time to the 109.10 area and a steady range around the 109.15 area and unable to push beyond the 109.18 area too the close.
- AUD: Early gains after the NZD no change but a more hawkish commentary as stimulus paragraph was removed from the communique from RBNZ, rising from the opening around the 0.7750 area the Oz managed a push through to the 0.7795 area before stalling and slowly drifting through to the London opening holding around the 0.7780 area, the NYK opening saw USD buying moving through the market in general and the Oz slipped back to the opening level initially, London close saw further selling and the market dipped through to the 0.7730 area low before holding the 0.7740 area to the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2250 level the market struggled through to the 1.2260 area pushing just above for the move into the grey hour before London started the selling to take the market off those highs to holding just above the 1.2230 level through to the NYK opening and the USD buying, drifting initially through to the 1.2220 level and a brief resurgence before dropping quickly through to the 1.2200 area before briefly holding and then dipping to the low of the day just above the 1.2180 level to hold 1.2190 area for the close.
Premier Results
NZD Trade Balance MoM (APR) A 338m | P 33m | R 39m
NZD Trade Balance YoY (APR) A 730m | 1,690m | R 1,700m
AUD Construction work Done QoQ (Q1) A 2.4% | C 2.2% | P -0.9%
JPY BoJ Board Member Suzuki Speaks
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 0.25| C 0.25% | P 0.25%
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -1.662m | C -1.050m | P 1321m | R -0.426m
CAD Gov. Council Member Lane Speaks
USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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