Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.492 | EURUSD 1.2173 | AUDUSD 0.77379 | NZDUSD 0.71993 | USDCAD 1.21156 | USDCHF 0.89686 | GBPUSD 1.41536 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21852 | 1.21711
USDJPY 109.515 | 109.405
GBPUSD 1.41682 | 1.41458
USDCHF 0.89770 | 0.89592
AUDUSD 0.77445 | 0.77333
NZDUSD 0.72034 | 0.71896
USDCAD 1.21172 | 1.21031
EURCHF 1.09200 | 1.09169
EURGBP 0.86040 | 0.85962
EURJPY 133.363 | 133.204
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.4150 level and a steady climb through to just below the 1.4170 area before slipping back to hold in the 1.4150 area again for the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 area with some congestion increasing on any move to the 1.4300 and stronger offers in the area, a break above the 1.4310 area will likely see weak stops and breakout stops coinciding and the topside open to a quick squeeze through the 1.4350 level and an attempt on the possibly weak 1.4400 area and stronger stops again through the level. Downside bids likely to increase on a move through to the 1.4100 with a couple of weeks of congestion building up in the area with weak stops on a break through the 1.4090-80 area and opening to the 1.4000 level with very little support other than limited sentimental bids, however, the move through will then start to see stronger bids into the 1.3950-1.3900 area limiting any further loses.
- JPY: Making the high from the opening to test lightly above the 109.52 before drifting through to the lows testing the 109.40 area in very quiet trading, a slow recovery to the opening level again for the move into the grey hour, Downside light through the 109.20-00 with increasing bids into the 108.50 this opens the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Very narrow range with the market opening in the high 0.7730’s dipping to the 0.7735 and then testing into the Tokyo session to push eventually towards the 0.7745 area and then giving it all back for the move to the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79-cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7700 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7680 area however, stronger bids then start to show through into the 0.7650 and ultimately the 0.7600 area and likely to continue in that fashion through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: A slow move through into the Tokyo session holding just above the 1.2170 level before slowly winding up for a move into the 1.2185 area and hold the 1.2180 for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers congested through to the 1.2220 area before weak stops appear and the market opens for a renewed push to the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.
Overnight News
CNY:
Factory gate prices hit 3 year high as manufacturers pass on surging material prices – SMP
China Commerce Ministry says, cannot be blindly optimistic about China’s foreign trade this year – RTR’s
CCM says will step up foreign trade firm’s ability to cope with Forex risks – RTR’s
AUD/CNY:
China Coal: Australia Jan-Apr thermal coal exports down 10.5% on year – WE6
AUD:
RBA’s Kent: Have been surprised by strength of rebound in economy
Kent: Haven’t had surprises on the wage and inflation fronts
Kent: Good prospects for growth and faster inflation
RBA is likely to dismantle elements of QE in July Edwards said – BBG
USD:
Senate passes bill that targets China and chips in 68-32 vote – DJ
Senate passes sweeping bill to help US compete with China – BBG
NZD:
Heavy traffic gauge fell as economy faces supply issues – ANZ
Today’s Data
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks
AUD Westpac consumer sentiment A -5.2% | P -4.8%
CNY CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P -0.3%
CNY CPI YoY (MAY) A 1.3% | C 1.6% | P 0.9%
CNY PPI YoY (MAY) A 9.0% | C 8.5% | P 6.8%
0700 EUR German Trade Balance (APR) A | C 16.3b | P 14.3b
1500 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.036m | P -5.080m
Tentative CAD BoC Press Conference
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A steady decline through the day into NYK before buyers really started to appear, Opening just off the highs the market lightly tested towards the 1.4185 level before heading into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.4170 area having tested the high for the second time during the Tokyo fix, a slow dip to the 1.4150 level for the move into the grey hour held initially pushing into the 1.4160’s for the London opening before dipping again through to the 1.4130 level and a slow move through the London session and into the NYK opening for the move to the low just above the 1.4120 and then a steady recovery testing again above the 1.4160 level and a slow drift to the close.
- JPY: Light USD buying through the day saw the market move into the Tokyo session pushing off the low of the day around the 109.20 level to quickly push through the 109.25 opening and testing through to the 109.45 level before dipping slightly and ranging around the 109.40 level through into the grey hour pushing slowly higher, the move into the London opening saw the market test the 109.55 level with a limited range over the next couple of hours slowly pushing above the 109.55 level a little only to fall back and repeat the dip into the NYK session into the 109.25 area, a slow grind through the balance of the session saw most of the gains retaken and holding around the 109.50 level to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7755 level with a little test to just above the 0.7760 level before making the high on the Tokyo fix to the 0.7764 area, steady selling from that point through into the grey hour testing the 0.7735 level and generally forming a base in that area through to the close slowly finding a closer range the closer it moved to the close.
- EUR: A very limited range for the Euro, opening quietly around the 1.2190 and holding into the Tokyo fix making the high around the 1.2194 level and then dipping slowly through into the grey hour initially holding the 1.2180 area before testing the 1.2165 level quickly into the London opening, a slow channelled range through to the highs again into the NYK session before drifting to the close in a long move.
Premier Results
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MAY) A 18.5% | P 39.6%
JPY Adjusted Current Account A 1.55t | P 1.70t
JPY Current Account n.s.a. (APR) A 1.322t | C 1.50t | P 2.65t
JPY GDP YoY (Q1) A -3.9% | C -4.8% | P 11.7%
JPY GDP QoQ (Q1) A -1.0% | C -1.2% | P 2.8%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAY) A 20 | P 26 | R 17
EUR German Industrial Production MoM (APR) A 01.0% | C 0.5% | P 2.5% | R 2.2%
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (JUN) A -9.1 | C -27.8 | P -40.1
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUN) A 79.8 | C 86.0 | P 84.4
EUR GDP QoQ (Q1) A -0.3% | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
EUR GDP YoY (Q1) A -1.3% | C 1.8% | P -1.8%
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUN) A 81.3 | P 84.0
USD Exports A 204.99b | P 200.03b | R 202.67b
USD Imports A 273.89b | P 274.48b | R 277.69b
USD Trade Balance (APR) A -68.90b | C -69.0b | P -74.4b | R -75.0b
CAD Trade Balance (APR) A 0.59b | C -0.70b | P -1.14b | R -1.35b
GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
USD Jolts Job Openings (APR) A 9.286m | C 8.30m | P 8.123m | R 8.288m
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -2.108m | P -5.360m
Best Regards
Andy
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