As the new week gets going, the global macro & FX landscape is fairly stable, with neither sharp moves nor major policy surprises dominating the tape.
The pound’s sharp rebound—up two big figures in under 48 hours—has traders scratching their heads, despite UK August GDP hitting the expected 0.1% gain but with July revised lower to -0.1%.
The US dollar eased overnight after Fed Chair Powell signaled a 25bps rate cut later this month — despite shutdown data gaps—citing labor risks, sticky inflation, and tariff pressures.
The Dollar Index surged overnight due to significant selling of the Yen and Euro, driven by political developments in Japan and France. In Japan, Sanae Takaichi’s unexpected victory in the LDP leadership election, making her the new Prime Minister, sparked Yen weakness as her pro-stimulus policies are seen as a barrier to Bank of Japan […]
A U.S. government shutdown, potentially lasting weeks due to a deadlock over health care subsidies, threatens economic disruptions, including delayed key data releases like the upcoming jobs report and possible federal worker layoffs, as warned by President Trump.
The threat of a U.S. government shutdown is creating uncertainty, with President Trump planning a bipartisan meeting with top congressional leaders on Monday to avoid a closure by Tuesday night.
The U.S. dollar eased slightly from its recent gains, which had been driven by Federal Reserve speakers’ reluctance to support significant short-term interest rate cuts. This pullback was likely due to market adjustments or anticipation of key data.
The US dollar strengthened in Asian trading, reaching a ten-day high, though European traders later sold off some of those gains. This week’s US economic data includes key releases like Thursday’s jobless claims and Tuesday’s flash PMIs, with Friday’s Core PCE Price Index drawing less attention.
The U.S. dollar briefly rallied after the Federal Reserve’s 25bps rate cut to a 4%–4.25% range but retreated as markets anticipated further easing, with two more cuts projected for 2025.
Today, two significant interest rate decisions are anticipated. The Bank of Canada is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, a move supported by recent weak Canadian labor and inflation data, despite some variation in forecasts. Meanwhile, the Fed is also projected to cut rates by 25 basis points, though strong U.S. […]
