Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 82.51 | EURUSD 1.30062 | EURJPY 107.318 | AUDUSD 1.0529 | NZDUSD 0.8385 | USDCAD 0.98621 | EURCHF 1.21254 | USDCHF 0.93229 | GBPUSD 1.61138 | EURGBP 0.8071 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia saw buyers in Euro’s appear late into the session with a rapid rise from the 1.2930 area lows just below the opening area rising quickly to above 1.2960, suspected Asian CB or Middle east interest however, once the rush was over we settled to the same downward slow trend we’d seen in the early part of the session, the Euro was helped high from the release of German and Eurozone sentiment numbers moving us steadily higher to just below the 1.3000 area pre NYK, and once the NYK market opened and bearish sentiment for the USD kicked in we finally broke through to touch the mid-teens above 1.3000 we stalled and have been pretty static just above the 1.3000 area since.
·        GBP: A quiet session in Asia saw the market rally from the opening 1.6070 level to hmm, the 1.6085 level, we dropped back to the starting area in time for the London opening and traded sideways until we reached the NYK session when the market took impetus from the Euro to rise to above 1.6120, since we moved up above the 1.6100 level we’ve traded sideways in a quiet market holding on to the greater part of the gains, the cross suffered again as GBP was unable to contend with the decent sentiment numbers and the EURGBP rose some 30 tics on the day to finish just above the 0.8070 level.
·        JPY: USDJPY held its own throughout the Asian session with very little of note appearing in the market as we approach the elections we moved from the 82.35 area in a tight range with bids around the 82.30 area holding the market up and offers at 82.50 keeping it from moving too high in a quiet session, once we moved into London we saw the top end taken out and some minor stops triggered as London seemed to have the will to clear out some of the weak orders in the market, the rise was short lived and once the top was cleared it looked set to try the downside for a clearance this time we failed and the bottom side held as we moved into the NYK session where fresh buying appeared with EURJPY being the preferred choice taking the USDJPY too fresh 82.57 highs, we’ve since held onto most of the gains and look to be settling at the 82.50 level.
·        AUD: A steady rise for the Oz as gamma plays held the market in a tight range in the Asian session however, once the sellers had finished the buying was steady throughout the day and we rose slowly to above the 1.0530 level for the first time this month, as with everything not USD it held onto the better part of the gains and settles towards those highs moving into the new session.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Nov A 2.10% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Nov A -9.00% | C -5.00% | P -7.00%Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Nov A -9 | P -1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Dec A 5.7 | C 6 | P 5.4Â
EUR       German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec  A 6.9 | C -11.5 | P -15.7             Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec A 7.6 | C 0.1 | P -2.6Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct A -42.2B | C -$42.6B | P -$41.5BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) Oct A -0.2B | C -1.2B | P -0.8BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Oct A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 1.10%
For today
USDJPYÂ
Topside: 82.80-83.10 decent buy stops 83.20-83.50 medium buy stops 83.50-83.80 decent buy stopsÂ
Downside: 81.20-81.50 light bids 81.70-82.00 light sell stops 82.00-82.30 light bidsÂ
EURUSDÂ
Topside: 1.3020-1.3050 medium buy stops 1.3050-1.3080 medium buy stops 1.3090-1.3120 light offersÂ
Downside: 1.2960-1.2990 light sell stops 1.2920-1.2950 medium sell stops 1.2880-1.2910 light sell stopsÂ
EURJPYÂ
Topside: 107.50-107.80 light buy stops 108.00-108.30 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 106.70-107.00 light bids 106.30-106.60 medium sell stops AUDUSDÂ
Topside: 1.0540-1.0560 medium buy stops 1.0570-1.0600 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.0480-1.0510 light bids 1.0440-1.0470 light bids
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USD:
Obama’s reduced revenue demand unacceptable -Boehner spokesman
KRW:
North Korea Launches Rocket in Defiance of Global Sanctions
USD/KRW:
U.S. “notes” N.Korea rocket launch, monitoring situation
CNY:
China 2013 Exports May Rise About 8%, Government Report Says
SGD:
Economists Lower Expectations for Singapore 2013 Growth -MAS
TWD/CNY:
Taiwan CB: Bank of China hopes to begin RMB clearing business
JPY:
Japan Oct Core Machinery Orders +2.6% on Mo; Expected +3.0%
JPY:
Japan Nov wholesale prices fall 0.9 % YoY
AUD:
Australia consumer sentiment suffers surprise dip in Dec
Australia’s RBA Troubled by Global Capital Flows
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·        EUR: A very quiet day for range wise but some decent volume going through with what looked like attempts to get amongst the stops above the market and failing to get there as we quickly turned on each failure to move back to the starting levels of 1.3005 from the 1.3014 area. With nothing on the wires as I’ve seen seems strange to see so much volume doing little damage.
·        GBP: A tight quiet range for the Cable with very little action seen we opened around 1.6110 and managed to sneak down to 1.6107 before rising quickly to above 1.6120 and back again and that has been the sum of the ranges today.
·        JPY: A steady climb higher with a better machine order number than previous but less than expected moving the market from the 82.52 area to above 82.68 on the day and holding in an otherwise quiet market.
·        AUD: Gamma players continue to rule the Oz in the Asian time zone although we did see some carry trade buying today with the Oz moving from the 1.0527 area to above the 1.0540 level triggering some minor stops on the way up but once we reached that level we drifted back lower over the course of the session as consumer confidence numbers came in a lot lower than previous, Moving back to the starting levels.
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Dec A -4.10% | P 5.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Oct A 2.60% | C 3.00% | P -4.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Oct A -0.10% | C -0.40% | P 0.30%Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Nov A -0.90% | C -0.90% | P -1.00%Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Nov (F) C -0.10% | P -0.10%Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Nov (F) C 1.90% | P 1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Change Nov C 5.0K | P 10.1KÂ Â Â Â Â Â
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Oct C 7.90% | P 7.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) Dec P -27.9
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct C 0.00% | P -2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Nov C -0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.4MÂ Â Â
17:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%Â
19:15    USD      Fed’s Bernanke Press Conference                          Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.695 | 82.49
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3015 | 1.2997
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.51 | 107.27
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0541 | 1.0523
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8398 | 0.8386
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9865 | 0.9859
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2127 | 1.2107
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9326 | 0.9315
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6120 | 1.6108
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80725 | 0.80675
Good luck
Andy