Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.81 | EURUSD 1.13348 | AUDUSD 0.72274 | NZDUSD 0.67383 | USDCAD 1.32087 | USDCHF 1.00547 | GBPUSD 1.29747 |
LMAX Highs  Ranges 6am GMT
Highs Lows
EURUSD 1.13303 | 1.13076
USDJPY 114.052 | 113.819
GBPUSD 1.29464 | 1.28916
AUDUSD 0.72372 | 0.72114
USDCHF 1.00711 | 1.00503
USDCAD 1.32075 | 1.3183
NZDUSD 0.67506 | 0.67231
EURGBP 0.87729 | 0.87487
EURCHF 1.13978 | 1.13805
EURJPY 129.183 | 128.862
For today
- GBP: With a US bank holiday markets were thin, the fact that dissension inside the UK’s government persists is not surprise, with whomever, caught the golden chalice of Brexit likely to have suffered the same fate, opening lower from the weekend/Friday news the market held in early trading around the 1.2925 levels having seen a pre-market mishit a big figure lower but generally accepted as being around the 1.2920 levels, the market moved slightly higher through into the Tokyo session with a light push through to the 1.2945 levels before holding quietly deep into the session before dropping quickly back to test the 1.2890 area for the move into the grey hours, Downside congestion into the 1.2880 area will likely then see weak stops on a move through to the 1.2850 level with stronger congestion likely to appear on any move through the level towards the 1.2800 area, weak stops below however, stops through the level opening a deeper move whether today without the NYK session be the day remains to be seen however, into the 1.2750 and 1.2700 area expect stronger support. Topside offers weak with the quick move lower and weak stops likely through the opening levels of today and the market quickly able to make the 1.3000 area however, through this level there may be some offers appearing in the market to slow any ascent with congestion through the level, so potential for movement.
- JPY: USDJPY opened a little stronger, the market held around the opening levels in the 113.85 area and the move into the Tokyo session started to see USD buying appearing with the market slowly regaining the 114.00 area and holding above the level through to the grey hour, topside offers through the 114.00 level with possibility of weak stops on a push through the 114.20 areas and increasing congestion on any move through to the 114.50 level and especially to the 1.14.60 old trendline and highs from last month dominating the topside, downside bids light through to a very congested 113.40 area with bids likely to increase through to the 113.00 level, weak stops through the 112.80 level are possibly going to be absorbed by strong congestion all the way through to the 112.20 level where better bids are likely.
- AUD: Opening a little below the Friday close the market filled the gap in the first couple of hours for the move into the Tokyo session and slowly tested through to the 0.7235 levels before moving towards the grey hour drifting back off to hold the opening lows round the 0.7215 area, topside offers into the 0.7300 areas with weak stops likely to appear just through the level or possibly more sentimental through the 0.7320 areas and opening up a limited gain to the 0.7350 areas before further offers appear. Downside bids light through to the 0.7210 areas and likely to increase into the figure level, weak stops is likely to find little support until dipping through to the 0.7150 areas and better support.
- EUR: Not a great deal to speak of during the weekend for Europe, the market opened a little lower and was unable to fill the gap testing the 1.1330 level deep into the session before dropping off quickly through the later part of the session to test the 1.1310 levels for the grey hours in quiet trading. Decent downside bids into the 1.1300 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.1275 areas and opening the downside through to the 1.1200 level with possibly limited bids in the area to slow any descent however, a push through the 1.1275 level does open a deeper intraday move through to the 1.1150 areas before strong stops appear. Topside offers limited through to the 1.1400 areas before the market sees some opening to the topside with congestion just above the 1.1440 level and increasing through the level on any push through to the 1.1480 level and stronger offers through to the 1.1500 areas.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ Gauge shows non-tradeable inflation pressure persist ANZ
GBP:
My Brother is right, PM May’s deal biggest statecraft failure since Suez crisis say’s Boris Johnson UKT
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPY: Domestic CGPI YoY Oct A 2.90% | C 2.80% | P 3.00%
JPY: Machine tool orders YoY Oct (P) A -1.10% | P 2.90%
Weekend News
GBP:
Change tack or face defeat, Brexit critics tell British PM Reuters
May under fire from all sides over Brexit – PA
OIL:
OPEC edges closer to production cut as Saudis signal intent
AUD:
Second Australian Iron ore train derailed in less than a week
USD:
Trump’s China cold war yields hard look at global supply chains BBG
CNY:
Traders eye Yuan proxies as China intervention risks loom large BBG
EUR:
Germany’s Seehofer intends to give up interior min. post – DPA
NZD:
NZ Oct retail card spending rise 0.1% MoM est. 0.6%
Harry Hindsight
-
- GBP: With Brexit on/off the Cable again found a day of drifting with even remoaners quitting the government front benches appalled by the current offering from May, from the opening around the 1.3060 levels the market headed slowly lower through the Asian session to base into the grey hours holding the before dropping on the already known news that the Cabinet meeting to formalise the Brexit plan that is 95% done was to be cancelled, early London sold the market to the 1.3010 level and held through to the official opening, the market drifted a little and held through too early in the session before slowly rising through into the NYK session testing towards the 1.3050 level, the end of the London session saw the market in terminal decline after the rumour was confirmed and the market dipped through to the 1.2975 levels to hold through to the close with the market just finishing off the low of 1.2960.
- JPY: A reasonably quiet day for the USDJPY with early selling dropping the market from the opening just above the 114.05 areas and testing into the Tokyo session pressing the 113.90 areas, the move through to the Tokyo session saw little relief and the market continued into mix session fall into the 113.80’s before finding light buyers for a move back to the 113.95 area, the move through to the London session saw the market continued the weak trading slipping to new lows through the 113.800 level before holding quietly in the 113.85 area, NYK were limited buyers into the opening and saw the market pushing for the 114.00 level and then on the opening falling again and again testing through the previous lows and bouncing off the 113.65 level to hold around the 113.70 areas and recover marginally to above the 113.80 into the close.
- AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with the market Initially pushing through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7270 level before starting a slow steady fall back through the early part of the session testing the 0.7250 and eventually slipping through to range in the 0.7240-50 areas deep through the day and into the NYK session before late selling forced it down to range in the 0.7220 areas closing just off the 0.7220 low.
- EUR: Limited highs just after the opening saw the market dropping back from the 1.1370 level and slowly slipping through early Tokyo through to the 1.1350 areas, some minor stops forced the market lower through to hold into the grey hours around the 1.1345 area however, the slow selling reappeared into the London session and the low was extended to the 1.1330 level and for much of the day this formed the base for the Euro breaking lower on the NYK option cut to test through the 1.1320 levels and a slow steady rise through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPY: Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Oct A 2.70% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
AUD: RBA Monetary Policy Statement
AUD: Home Loans M/M Sep A -1.00% | C -1.10% | P -2.10% | R -2.20%
CNY; CPI Y/Y Oct A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
CNY: PPI Y/Y Oct A 3.30% | C 3.40% | P 3.60%
GBP: Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep A -9.7B | C -11.4B | P -11.2B
GBP: Industrial Production M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBP: Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A 0.00% | C 0.50% | P 1.30% | R 1.00%
GBP: Manufacturing Production M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P -0.20%
GBP: Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 1.30%
GBP: Construction Output M/M Sep A 1.70% | C 0.20% | P -0.70%
GBP: GDP M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
GBP: GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.40%
GBP: Index of Services 3M/3M Sep A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
USD: PPI M/M Oct A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USD: PPI Y/Y Oct A 2.60% | C 2.70% | P 2.60%
USD: PPI Core M/M Oct A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USD: PPI Core Y/Y Oct A 2.60% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
USD: Wholesale Inventories M/M SEP (F) A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
USD: U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov (P) A 98.3 | C 98 | P 98.6
          Â
Stay lucky
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.