Euro to Fresh 2018 Low, US Dollar Extends Run

Next 24 hours: The Buck Didn’t Stop There

Today’s report: Euro to Fresh 2018 Low, US Dollar Extends Run

The US Dollar continues to find good demand into dips and is right back on the bid in the early week. The moves haven’t been anything dramatic, and it’s more about the Dollar’s persistence than anything else. A lot of this comes from the lure of the Buck as both a yield play and safety play at the same time.

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Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

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EURUSD – technical overview

The Euro sits at a critical inflection point right now, trying to figure out whether it wants to hold up into dips for the start to a resumption of that bullish breakout from back in 2017 that led to a +3 year high earlier this year, or if it wants to keep extending this run of declines. A lot of this will hinge on how the market trades around 1.1300 in the sessions ahead. Any sustained break below 1.1300 could open another downside extension that targets the 1.0800 area. But if the market can hold up above 1.1300 on a daily close basis, we could see the start to a much bigger bullish move.

  • R2 1.1369 – 9Nov high – Medium
  • R1 1.1331 - 12Nov high – Medium
  • S1 1.1269- 12Nov/2018 low – Medium
  • S2 1.1200 – Figure – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

Another round of 2018 lows for the Euro, as stops are tripped up below 1.1300 early Monday. The latest weakness has come from a number of fronts, none unfamiliar, with dovish leaning Draghi comments, some downgraded EU growth forecasts, Italian budget drama and a post Fed Dollar rally all working there way into the mix.  Still, there has been an added downside pressure in the aftermath of the US midterm elections, with soft US Dollar policy losing momentum as the Democrats gain more control. As far as today's docket goes, there is no first tier data on the schedule.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

On a medium to longer term basis, the outlook is still looking constructive off the +30 year low from 2016, with a higher low sought ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and through the current 2018 high. Right now, the major pair will need to hold up into the latest round of setbacks, ideally above 1.2800 on a daily close basis, and push back through critical resistance in the form of the September high at 1.3300 if it wants to strengthen bullish prospects.

  • R2 1.3000 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 1.2947 – 12Nov high – Medium
  • S1 1.2800 – 2Nov low – Medium
  • S2 1.2761 – 1Nov low  – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

It's been a lot of back and forth on the Brexit front and after a week of positives, we're back to the negatives, with all hope for an imminent deal looking lost and uncertainty right back at the forefront. This has opened early weakness in the Pound, while accompanying broad based demand for a US Dollar that is looking quite attractive, both on yield and safety, has fueled additional weakness. Looking at the calendar, there is no first tier calendar risk on Monday.

GBPUSD - Technical charts in detail

USDJPY – technical overview

Rallies continue to be very well capped on a medium-term basis, with the outlook still favouring lower tops and lower lows. Look for yet another topside failure ahead of 114.00, in favour of the next major downside extension towards key support around 109.75. Ultimately, only a break back above 114.75 would negate the bearish outlook.

  • R2 114.56 – 5Oct high  – Strong
  • R1 114.22 – 12Nov high – Medium
  • S1 113.48 – 8Nov low – Medium
  • S2 112.95 – 7Nov low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The combination of broad based US Dollar demand and some stabilisation in the equity markets, have been behind this latest jump in the major pair back above 114.00. Dealers are reporting sizable stop built up above 115.00, though offers are also reported in size ahead of the psychological barrier. Looking at the calendar, there is no first tier risk to speak of.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market has been in the process of recovering out from a 2018 low coinciding with critical support in the 1.1200 area. However, at this stage, there is no clear directional bias, with the price action deferring to a neutral state. Back above 1.1560 would get some bullish momentum going for a push to 1.2000, while back below 1.1200 would be quite bearish.
  • R2 1.1560– 8Aug high – Strong
  • R1 1.1502 – 22Oct high – Medium
  • S1 1.1313 – 27Sep low– Medium
  • S2 1.1224– 18Sep low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation between now and year end, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.

AUDUSD – technical overview

Technical studies are stretched on a medium term basis, though the market has been unable to make any meaningful recoveries out from its lowest levels since February 2016. At this stage, the market will need to establish back above 0.7316 to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Until then, risk remains for fresh downside below the 0.7000 psychological barrier, which defends against a retest of the 2016 low down at 0.6830.

  • R2 0.7316 – 26Sep high – Strong
  • R1 0.7303 – 8Nov high – Medium
  • S1 0.7200 – Figure – Medium
  • S2 0.7160 – 17Oct high – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Overall, a lot of what happens here will likely hinge on the outlook for global trade and risk sentiment. Economic data out of Australia has been better of late, which has helped to rally Aussie out from a +2.5 year low against the Buck, though Aussie will continue to face headwinds from yield differentials that favour the US Dollar and flight to safety bids that also work in the Buck's favour. Looking ahead, there is no first tier data scheduled for the remainder of the day.

USDCAD – technical overview

The market has been consistently sold into rallies since topping out in June, which could still invite a deeper decline before the next upside extension gets underway. Still, look for any weakness to be well supported ahead of 1.2500 with only a break back below this psychological barrier to negate the bigger picture constructive outlook.

  • R2 1.3291 – 20Jul high – Strong
  • R1 1.3234 - 9Nov high – Medium
  • S1 1.3088 – 8Nov low– Medium
  • S2 1.3049 – 2Nov low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has been a clear laggard over the past week. A lot of this is a function of a sharp pullback in the price of OIL, with the commodity slide extending beyond 20% from the October peak, and some softer data reads out of Canada in recent days. Into Monday, there has been some relief for the Loonie, at least when compared to other currencies, with the Canadian Dollar getting some help from a bounce in the price of OIL after Saudi Arabia announced production cuts. Looking ahead, there is no first tier data scheduled on the Monday calendar.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market has been in the process of recovering out from +2.5 year lows and is looking to extend the correction following the latest break back above consolidation resistance around 0.6725. This sets the stage for a push that could extend back towards the psychological barrier at 0.7000 before the market considers the legitimacy of the recovery and prospect for a more significant bullish structural shift or bearish resumption.

  • R2 0.6860 – 9Jul high – Strong
  • R1 0.6818 – 7Nov high – Medium
  • S1 0.6713 – 7Nov low – Medium
  • S2 0.6633 – 5Nov low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar is coming off a week of outperformance, with the currency getting a boost from a number of fronts including solid employment data, risk on price action in the aftermath of the US midterm elections, and better than expected China trade data. However, the outlook for risk markets is still very much in question, as the weight of Fed policy normalisation starts to resonate with investors, and global trade uncertainty hangs around in the background. Looking ahead, there is no first tier data scheduled for the remainder of the day.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

A market that has been extended on the monthly chart is at risk for a major correction, with the possibility for a massive topping formation. Any rallies should now continue to be very well capped ahead of 3000, in favour of renewed weakness back below the 2530 area yearly low (neckline) and towards a retest of strong longer-term resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. Only a weekly close above 3000 would negate the outlook.

  • R2 2824 – 17Oct high – Strong
  • R1 2800 – Figure – Medium
  • S1 2603 – 29Oct low – Strong
  • S2 2594 – 3May low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Investor immunity to downside risk is not as strong these days. The combination of Fed policy normalisation, US protectionism, ongoing White House drama and geopolitical tension are all warning of capitulation ahead, despite this latest run to record highs. The Fed has also finally acknowledged inflation no longer running below target in 2018, something that could very well result in even less attractive equity market valuations given the implication on rates. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as this could be something that inspires a more aggressive decline in the fourth quarter.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The market has been showing signs of wanting to turn back up after establishing back above the daily Ichimoku chart. There are also signs that we could be seeing the formation of a more significant medium to longer-term structural shift that would be confirmed if this latest recovery can extend back through big resistance in the form of the 2016 high at 1375. Look for setbacks to be well supported ahead of 1200, with only a close back below 1150 to compromise the constructive outlook. A daily close above 1250 will strengthen the outlook.

  • R2 1266 – 9Jul high – Strong
  • R1 1244 – 26Oct high – Medium
  • S1 1200 – Psychological – Medium
  • S2 1160 – 16Aug/2018 low  – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

BTCUSD – technical overview

Considering the intensity of declines already seen this year, if the market does break to the topside, it could be a bullish signal that gets the trend moving up again. But we would need to see a break above the July lower top at around 8,500 for confirmation. Until then, a bearish continuation back towards the September 2017 low around 2,975 can not be ruled out.

  • R2 7,000 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 6,648 – 21Oct high – Medium
  • S1 6,213– 12Oct low –Medium
  • S2 6,000 – Psychological  – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

Overall, Bitcoin is doing its best to try and hold up above $6,000 in 2018 after undergoing a massive decline off the record high from December 2017. At the moment, the market has found some stability around the $6,000 barrier, with buyers stepping in on the view that the regulatory challenges will eventually work themselves out, leaving a very bullish picture for a technology with tremendous potential and increasing adoption. Still, there has been concern in the shorter-term on account of regulatory challenges in the space and downside pressure in global equities.

BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

The market remains under pressure in 2018, extending its run of intense declines to fresh 2018 lows. Medium term studies are however stretched, which could warn of the start to a recovery. Still, it would take a break back above 255 right now to take the pressure off the downside and suggest that the market could be starting to turn bullish again.

  • R2 321 – 18Aug high – Strong
  • R1 255 – 22Sep high – Medium
  • S1 188 – 12Oct low – Medium
  • S2 165 – 12Sep/2018 low  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

Overall, we've seen quite a bit of weakness in the price of Ether in 2018 and there's still legitimate risk for deeper setbacks, given technical hurdles within the protocol, ongoing regulatory challenges and a global macro backdrop exposing risk correlated projects on the Ethereum blockchain. Monetary policy normalisations around the globe and an anticipated reduction in global risk appetite are placing a tremendous strain on ERC20 projects that have yet to even produce proper use cases and proof of concept. At the same time, longer term prospects are looking quite bright and after a drop of well over 70% off the record high, the market is starting to find some stability.

Peformance chart: 5-Day Performance v. US dollar

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