Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.709 | EURUSD 1.13352 | AUDUSD 0.70905 | NZDUSD 0.68035 | USDCAD 1.32327 | USDCHF 1.00097 | GBPUSD 1.3039 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13420 | 1.13303

USDJPY                 110.811 | 110.623

GBPUSD               1.30555 | 1.30208

USDCHF               1.00165 | 1.0006

AUDUSD              0.71120 | 0.70826

USDCAD               1.32422 | 1.3212

NZDUSD               0.68160 | 0.6758

EURCHF                1.13544 | 1.13313

EURGBP               0.87014 | 0.86888

EURJPY                 125.587 | 125.391

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet session with the Cable slowly drifting from the opening areas around the 1.3040 level and drifting from those highs through to just below the 1.3030 for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.3100 level with limited congestion through the figure and some weak stops likely through the level and the market open a little through to the 1.3150-60 areas where the market starts to increase on any move through to the 1.3200-20 areas with likely stronger stops on a break through that level, downside bids light through to the 1.2950 level with limited congestion and weak stops likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2900 congestive areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 110.65 levels and probing a couple of times through the level before starting a slow rise through to the 110.80 area and a steady range through to the grey hours, topside offers through to the 111.20 areas a strong push through the level could see weak stops joined by breakout moves and the market quickly testing through to the 111.50 areas before congestive offers reappear, however, the market could see a move through those levels and test towards the 111.80 levels and stronger offers appearing. Downside bids light through to the 110.00 areas with stronger bids around the level and likely to remain congestive through the level with weak stops possibly being absorbed, with stronger bids then returning on any move through the 109.60 levels.
  • AUD: Surprisingly stable Oz for the day with early buyers pushing the market from the 0.7090 level through to the 0.7115 area to make the highs before slowly drifting off back through to hold the 0.7085 areas for a long and quiet run to the grey hours, downside bids into the 0.7080-60 level with some weak stops expected in that area however, any push through the 0.7050 level is likely to find some sellers reappearing in the market and the 70 cents level quickly under pressure, a break below is likely to see a mixture of stops and sentimental bids through to the 0.6950 areas however, those levels are likely to be weak and a lot of room to the downside is likely to open. Topside offers likely to be weak and a test back through the 0.7100-20 area could see a short squeeze appearing but less likely than yesterday a quick test towards 0.7160 areas.
  • EUR: A quiet rise through to the 1.1340 levels and then ranging for the bulk of the session in the 1.1330-40 areas through to the grey hours in light volumes, topside congestion through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1380-1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.

 

Overnight News

NZD:

RBNZ says bank capital increase could lead to eventual rate cut

CAD:

BoC Poloz says rate hike path highly uncertain

EUR/GBP:

EU is closing down Brexit impasse options deputy DUP leader TWT

EUR:

Germany braces for Kurzarbiet Job shock from no deal Brexit Telegraph

Franco-German Fragility, Crisis smoulders between Berlin and Paris Speigel

AUD:

RBA has studied QE in case of extreme scenario Debelle says

CNY:

China economists see pause, not halt, to Trump’s higher tariffs – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.70%

07:00     EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) C 0.00% | P 0.00%

09:00     EUR        German IFO Business Climate Feb C 98.9 | P 99.1

09:00     EUR        German IFO Expectations Feb C 94.2 | P 94.2

09:00     EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Feb C 103.9 | P 104.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan (F) C 1.10% | P 1.10%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Jan C -1.10% | P 0.00%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan (F) C 1.40% | P 1.60%

13:30     CAD       Retail Sales M/M Dec C -0.30% | P -0.90%

13:30     CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Dec C -0.30% | P -0.60%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3050 areas the market was driven mostly by the AUD cross through the session with initial selling of GBPAUD cross on the back of employment numbers however, this was quickly reversed from the 1.3025 areas and rising back to the opening levels, the market held through to close to the grey hours when news that Dalian port has banned imports of coal for the foreseeable future and the Oz in full rout lower and early GBPAUD sellers quickly reversed there positions and Cable dipped initially with drag effect, the move into the early London saw Cable rising quickly through triggering weak stops on the move through the 1.3050 level and testing through to the 1.3090 areas before running into offers, a choppy move through to the NYK session, dropping quickly and then rising just as quickly as early NYK moving the market through the previous highs and testing just short of the 1.3100 level to make the highs, the move through to the close was a long quiet affair with the market drifting through to finish the day just a little shy of the days lows.
  • JPY: USDJPY saw similar flows, with the market initially drifting into the Tokyo session before strong selling moved in for the Tokyo fix before moving off the 110.60 low and testing back to the opening levels on the initial AUD dip, the market then drifted through into the London session in a slow move from the 110.85 levels and into the NYK session holding around the 110.70 level, NYK were quick sellers to create the low just below the 110.60 level before spending a few hours slowly rising back to the opening levels for the London close and a slow drift through to the close.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7160 level the release of better employment numbers rising quickly through the 72 cents level before Westpac hit the news from both sides with the main news being that they were expecting at least to rate cuts through this year, the early buyers were instantly squeezed out as the market dipped back through to the 0.7150 level and held close through to just before the grey hours, at this point news that Coal exports would no longer be accepted saw the market in another strong dip and briefly held the 71 cents before lightly dipping through, the rest of the day while very limited did see the lows extended through to the 0.7070 level before pushing back to the 71 cents level on the opening in Sydney and holding quietly just below the figure to the close.
  • EUR: Very limited range through the day, opening around the 1.1340 level some light movement in line with the AUD movements but remaining in a 20 pip range before dipping through into the grey hours to make the lows just off the 1.1320 level, Euro numbers mixed but tending to the poor side saw the market moving higher on the better German services number and the market pushing for the first time through the 1.1360 level and the range was almost defined, the move into the NYK session saw the topside tested again, pushing through to the 1.1365 and new high before drifting through the session to the close testing the lows and finishing just above the 1.1330 level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       CBA PMI Services Feb (P) A 49.3 | P 51

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Feb (P) A 48.5 | P 50.3

AUD       Employment Change Jan A 39.1K | C 15.2K | P 21.6K

AUD       Unemployment Rate Jan A 5.00% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Dec A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P -0.30%

EUR        German CPI M/M Jan (F) A -0.80% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Jan (F) A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 51.4 | C 51 | P 51.2

EUR        France Services PMI Feb (P) A 49.8 | C 48.5 | P 47.8

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 47.6 | C 49.9 | P 49.7

EUR        Germany Services PMI Feb (P) A 55.1 | C 52.9 | P 53

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 49.2 | C 50.3 | P 50.5

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Feb (P) A 52.3 | C 51.3 | P 51.2

GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing Jan A -15.8B | C -11.1B | P 2.1B

EUR        ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

CAD       Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Dec A 0.30% | C -0.30% | P -1.00% | R -1.10%

USD       Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Feb A -4.1 | C 14.8 | P 17

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 16) A 216K | C 230K | P 239K

USD       Durable Goods Orders Dec (P) A 1.20% | C 1.80% | P 0.70% | R 1.00%

USD       Durables Ex Transportation Dec (P) A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.40% | R -0.20%

USD       US Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 53.7 | C 55 | P 54.9

USD       US Services PMI Feb (P) A 56.2 | C 54.3 | P 54.2

USD       Leading Index Jan A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%

USD       Existing Home Sales Jan A 4.94M | C 5.01M | P 4.99M | R 5.00M

USD       Natural Gas Storage A -177B | C -164B | P -78B

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 3.7M | C 2.9M | P 3.6M

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.