Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.384 | EURUSD 1.13704 | AUDUSD 0.7094 | NZDUSD 0.68087 | USDCAD 1.31758 | USDCHF 0.99797 | GBPUSD 1.32621 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13753 | 1.1364

USDJPY                 111.771 | 111.325

GBPUSD               1.32663 | 1.32531

USDCHF               0.99864 | 0.99703

AUDUSD              0.71093 | 0.7086

USDCAD               1.31756 | 1.31568

NZDUSD               0.68213 | 0.68073

EURCHF                1.13570 | 1.13409

EURGBP               0.85789 | 0.85719

EURJPY                 127.088 | 126.61

For Today

  • GBP: Slow trading for the Asian session with the Cable holding around the 1.3260 level with minor dips into the 1.3250 areas and barely scraping above the 1.3265 level to set up the range for the day, rumour mill has estimated 20 members of the Brexit MP’s talking about leaving as suspected which would be balanced by the remainder MP’s probably just as keen to flex muscles and likely the reason for yesterdays dip back, Topside offers weak through to the 1.3300 level with possible light offers through the level and increasing on any push for the 1.3350 level and possibly stronger congestion beyond, downside bids light through to the 1.3220 levels with some bids then appearing through to the 1.3200 levels, weak stops on a move through the area will see minor buying through to the 1.3150 level and stronger congestion then appearing.
  • JPY: Opening quietly around the 111.40 level the market moved into the Tokyo session and started a steady rise through to the 111.75 level before finding sufficient offers to curb further buying, and holding in the area through to the grey hours, topside offers into the 111.80 areas with congestion likely to continue through the level too the 112.00 levels with limited congestion continuing higher and that stronger congestion then continuing through the 112.50 areas. Downside bids light back through the 111.00 levels with stronger congestion into the 110.80 levels and likely to continue deep into the 110.40 before weakness appears, weak stops on a move through and limited congestion into the 110.00 level.
  • AUD: Moving from the opening 0.7095 levels the market moved a little higher through the 71 cent level before drifting back again once Tokyo moved in and the market still holding the 0.7090 level, better CNY numbers helped the Oz quickly push to the highs around the 0.7110 level before dropping back again as the market moderated its response given that exporting coal has nothing to do with better numbers in China and more a thawing of tensions, the market tested lightly through to the 0.7085 level for the low and set the early range for the day before running to the grey hours holding around the 0.7090 level.
  • EUR: As with the others a very quiet Asian session for the Euro, trading along the 1.1370 level for the most part the market dipped a little to the 1.1365 area to make the lows before rising back to the opening level and trading quietly in the 1.1370-75 level through to the grey hours, topside congestion reappears through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.

 

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China P2P lender Dianrong closing 60 stores, laying off 2K employees Source

KRW/USD:

  1. Korea offers more talks after nuclear no deal in Hanoi

Trump sides with Kim on tortured American, sparking firestorm

USD:

Persistent slow growth cuts US wages in half  – Fed’s Powell

GBP/EUR:

EU Brexit negotiator says UK decision more important than extra time

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Feb A 54 | P 52.5

NZD       Building Permits M/M Jan A 16.50% | P 5.10% | R 5.40%

NZD       Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q4 A -3.00% | C -1.00% | P -0.30% | R -0.10%

JPY         Jobless Rate Jan A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

JPY         Capital Spending Q4 A 5.70% | C 4.50% | P 4.50%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Feb (F) A 48.9 | C 48.5 | P 48.5

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Feb A 49.9 | C 48.7 | P 48.3

JPY         Consumer Confidence Feb A 41.5 | C 41.6 | P 41.9

07:00     EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Jan C 1.90% | P -4.30%

07:30     CHF        Retail Sales Real Y/Y Jan C 0.40% | P -0.30%

08:30     CHF        PMI Manufacturing Feb C 53.6 | P 54.3

08:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Feb C 47 | P 47.8

08:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) C 51.4 | P 51.4

08:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) C 47.6 | P 47.6

08:55     EUR        German Unemployment Change Feb C -5K | P -2K

08:55     EUR        German Unemployment Claims Rate Feb C 5.00% | P 5.00%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) C 49.2 | P 49.2

09:30     GBP       Mortgage Approvals Jan C 63K | P 64K

09:30     GBP       Money Supply M4 M/M Jan C 0.30% | P 0.40%

09:30     GBP       PMI Manufacturing Feb C 52 | P 52.8

10:00     EUR        Italian Annual GDP (2018) C 0.80% | P 1.50%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jan C 7.90% | P 7.90%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Feb C 1.50% | P 1.40%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb (A) C 1.10% | P 1.10%

13:30     CAD       GDP M/M Dec C 0.00% | P -0.10%

13:30     USD       Personal Income Jan C 0.30% | P 0.20%

13:30     USD       Personal Spending Dec C 0.10% | P 0.40%

13:30     USD       PCE Deflator M/M Dec C 0.00% | P 0.10%

13:30     USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Dec C 1.70% | P 1.80%

13:30     USD       PCE Core M/M Dec C 0.20% | P 0.10%

13:30     USD       PCE Core Y/Y Dec C 1.90% | P 1.90%

14:30     CAD       Manufacturing PMI Feb P 53

14:45     USD       Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) C 53.7 | P 53.7

15:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Feb C 56 | P 56.6

15:00     USD       ISM Prices Paid Feb C 52 | P 49.6

15:00     USD       ISM Employment Feb P 55.5

15:00     USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb (F) C 95.8 | P 95.5

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: The start of the day saw the market spiking through the 1.3320 level in a weak attempt to trigger any stops however, for the most part the market moved through into the Tokyo session holding just below the 1.3320 levels and then a slow drift through the Asian session and the market drifting initially through to the 1.3300 level to hold quietly through into the grey hours, early sellers appeared in the run to London opening and the market pushing lightly through to the 1.3270 areas before recovering on the opening and pushing again to the 1.3320 level, NYK saw the market dropping through to make new lows as news of another Minister rising from Government and the market pushed lightly through the 1.3270 level before bouncing around with stronger GDP figures for the USD, choppy short period through to the London close and the market collapsing from the end of London falling through to the 1.3260 areas before remaining in close proximity to the level to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY drifted through the Asian session with the market falling slowly from the 111.00 level to hold the 110.85 areas through to the grey hours, early sellers through to the London opening saw the market pushing through to the 110.70 areas to make the lows for the day and the run through to NYK holding around the 110.80 areas, US GDP numbers helped the market regain the 111.00 areas and after a brief pause a strong push through to the 111.40 areas and a slow 111.40-50 range with the market making the highs towards the end of the session.
  • AUD: An early spike into the Tokyo session saw the highs of the day to the 0.7165 level then dropping back again  to trade around the 0.7135 level and hold in a tight range through to deep into the London session before finally breaking lower after the US numbers were released falling initially to the 0.7120 level and then continuing after a brief pause running to just below the 71 cent level for a long run through to the close holding in a narrow range around the 0.7095 areas.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1370 level the market ran to the 1.1380 level and the market held in that range into the grey hours, early London were solid buyers in the market and the Euro pushed steadily through to the 1.1420 level before hitting strong offers after reasonable numbers for the region, the move into the NYK session saw the market dropping quickly after the better GDP numbers and the market quickly testing the 1.1380 area and after a pause a further drop to make the lows into the 1.1360 level before bouncing and then drifting to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Jan (P) A -3.70% | C -2.50% | P -0.10%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Jan A 0.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.30%

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence Feb A -30.9 | P -24.1

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Feb A -13 | C -15 | P -14

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure Q4 A 2.00% | C 1.00% | P -0.50% | R 0.00%

AUD       Private Sector Credit M/M Jan A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%

CNY        Manufacturing PMI Feb A 49.2 | C 49.5 | P 49.5

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Feb A 54.3 | C 54.5 | P 54.7

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Jan A 1.10% | C 10.30% | P 2.10%

CHF        GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P -0.20% | R -0.30%

EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Jan A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P -1.30%

EUR        French GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Feb A 92.4 | C 96 | P 95 | R 96.2

EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (P) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P -0.80%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) A 1.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.40%

CAD       Current Account Balance Q4 A -15.48B | C -$14.01B | P -$10.34B | R -10.11B

CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Jan A -0.30% | C 0.30% | P -0.70% | R -0.80%

CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jan A 3.80% | C 4.10% | P 3.80%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 23) A 225K | C 221K | P 216K | R 217K

USD       GDP Annualized Q/Q Q4 (A) A 2.60% | C 2.50% | P 3.40%

USD       GDP Price Index Q4 (A) A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%

USD       Chicago PMI Feb A 64.7 | C 57.8 | P 56.7

USD       Natural Gas Storage A -166B | C -172B | P -177B

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.