Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.299 | EURUSD 1.12916 | AUDUSD 0.69232 | NZDUSD 0.65889 | USDCAD 1.31922 | USDCHF 0.98182 | GBPUSD 1.2703 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13092 | 1.12879
USDJPY 107.367 | 107.053
GBPUSD 1.27250 | 1.26992
USDCHF 0.98240 | 0.98085
AUDUSD 0.69377 | 0.6917
USDCAD 1.31955 | 1.31635
NZDUSD 0.66041 | 0.65721
EURCHF 1.10982 | 1.10660
EURGBP 0.88945 | 0.8885
EURJPY 121.287 | 120.966
For Today
GBP: A slow rise from the opening levels but stalling again around the 1.2725 areas before drifting back to a quiet range around the 1.2710 level for the move through to the grey hour, Topside congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2760 areas before weak stops appear and the market opens to a quick push at sentimental offers into the 1.2800 level and further weakness on a break through there with limited congestion around the 50’s and figure area. Downside light bids through to the 1.2600 level with some support likely to be building in the area, a break opens up the 1.2550 with possibly light bids and stronger bids into the 1.2500 level with strong stops likely on a dip through the level.
JPY: Opening around the 107.35 areas the market held deep into the Tokyo session before dropping back and then drifting from the 107.15 area for the move into the grey hour, Congestion likely through the downside with weak stops on a break through the 106.80 areas and support are likely to start appearing on any push through to the 106.20-00 areas and the congestion then increasing on any attempt to break through to the 105.80 levels. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops likely on a break above the 108.30 areas and opening a move through to the 108.80-109.00 level where better offers are likely to appear.
AUD: A slight dip from the opening to touch below the 0.6920 level before starting a slow rise through the early part of Tokyo to test above the 0.6935 level and the high for the session before dipping back and holding quietly around the 0.6930 areas. Congestion on the topside starts to increase on a move through the 0.6950 level and becoming stronger the closer the market moves beyond the 0.6970 level with strong offers around the 70 cents level, a breakthrough will likely see strong stops appearing and a possible run to the 0.7050 areas before stronger offers reappear. Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
EUR: A very quiet session with the market slowly rising to test towards the 1.1310 level before holding quietly around the 1.1300 areas through to the grey hour, Topside congestion continues through the 1.1310 level and increasing on any test towards the 1.1350 area before weakness to the topside appears, downside bids lightly congested through to the 1.1200 areas and increasing through the level and into the 1.1180 areas, weak stops possible through the level and further congestion through to the 1.1150 level and stronger bids.
Overnight News
EUR/TRY:
Juncker: EU commission will propose measures against Turkey
Juncker: EU proposals against Turkey will not be soft
JPY:
Fitch ratings explores the major risks and trends for Japanese
NZD:
Westpac now expects RBNZ to cut interest rates in August BBG
CHF:
SNB’s old threat returns as Fed reserve, ECB go dovish BBG
Metals/AUD:
End of the iron ore age as exports slump AFR
AUD:
Westpac caves into APRA fury AFR
GBP:
Johnson and Hunt go head to head in race to be next UK leader – BBG
USD:
Fed pivot, oil surge jump starts inflation expectations BBG
USD/IRR:
US FAA bans all US flights over Tehran controlled airspace
Trump approves strikes on Iran, but then abruptly pulls back
HKD:
Hong Kong students resume protests, snarling downtown traffic – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY National CPI (YoY) (MAY) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.9%
JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.9%
JPY Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (JUN P) A 49.5 | P 49.8
05:30 JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (MAY) P -1.1%
07:00 CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAY) P 3.5%
07:15 EUR Markit France Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) C 50.9 | P 50.6
07:15 EUR Markit France Services PMI (JUN P) C 51.6 | P 51.5
07:15 EUR Markit France Composite PMI (JUN P) C 51.4 | P 51.2
07:30 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) C 44.6 | P 44.3
07:30 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN P) C 55.3 | P 55.4
07:30 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN P) C 52.5 | P 52.6
08:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) C 48.0 | P 47.7
08:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN P) C 53.0 | P 52.9
08:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN P) C 52.0 | P 51.8
08:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (MAY) P -7.1b
08:30 GBP Central Government NCR (MAY) P -9.8b
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAY) C 3.2b | P 5.0b
08:30 GBP PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAY) C 4.2b | P 5.8b
12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) C 0.2% | P 1.1%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (APR) C 0.4% | P 1.7%
13:45 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) C 50.5 | P 50.5
13:45 USD Markit US Services PMI (JUN P) C 51.0 | P 50.9
13:45 USD Markit US Composite PMI (JUN P) P 50.9
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MAY) C 5.25m | P 5.19m
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) C 1.2% | P -0.4%
Harry Hindsight
GBP: Opening around the 1.2645 level the market slowly rose through the Asian session to push into the grey hour testing the 1.2700 area, some strong buying in early London pushed the market through the figure but struggling with the 1.2730 level before dipping back a little into the NYK session to drift through to the 1.2675 areas before slowly rising back to the figure level through the balance of the session to close just above the 1.2700 area.
JPY: Holding quietly the move into Tokyo saw a quick move from the 108.15 areas to trade down to the 107.50 level and holding quietly around the 107.60 level for the move through into the London session, light buying moved it away from the downside support level and retraced to the 107.85 areas before drifting off for the move through into the NYK session with the steady selling saw the market push through eventually with a quick move to the 107.20 areas and holding quietly for the run to the close.
AUD: Moving off the 0.6880 level the move into the Tokyo session saw the Oz rising to just above the 0.6905 areas before drifting back to pressure the lows again and to start the climb again only once it moved through into the London opening, and the steady rise increased pushing through to the 0.6920 level and then grinding through the early part of the NYK session testing the 0.6935 level before drifting off a little and heading to a quiet run to the close.
EUR: Suspicious? Comments from Trump and the Euro started a slow steady rise through the day pushing from the 1.1230 level and increasing its speed of rise through to the 1.1265 level before slowing for the move through to the grey hour holding around the 1.1270 area, London opening saw the market push through the 1.1275 and slowly pushing initially to the 1.1300 area moving into the NYK session and pushing through to the 1.1315 level before halting and then drifting back through to the London close testing the 1.1275 level in the other direction, the market slowly rose to the 1.1290 level and then held quietly for several hours to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD GDP (YoY) (1Q) A 2.5% | C 2.4% | P 2.3%
NZD GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q) A 0.60% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
JPY BOJ Rate Decision (JUN 20) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target (JUN 20) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
CNY FX Net Settlement – Clients CNY (MAY) A 31.8b | P -53.1b
AUD RBA Governor Lowe Gives Speech in Adelaide
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (APR) A 0.9% | C 0.70% | P -0.40% | R 0.3%
CHF Exports (MoM) (MAY) A -1.2% | P -0.6%
CHF Imports (MoM) (MAY) A 0.7% | P 1.5%
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY F) -27.3% | P -27.3%
EUR ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin
GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY) A -0.3% | C -0.5% | P -0.2% | R -0.3%
GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY) A 2.2% | C 2.4% | P 4.9% | R 4.7%
GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P 0.0% | R -0.1%
GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY) A 2.3% | C 2.7% | P 5.2% | R 4.7%
GBP Bank of England Bank Rate (JUN 20) A 0.75% | C 0.75% | P 0.75%
GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN) A 435b | C 435b | P 435b
USD Current Account Balance (1Q) A -$130.4b | C -$125.0b | P -$134.4b | R 143.9b
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 15) A 216k | C 220k | P 222k
USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (JUN) A 0.3 | C 10.4 | P 16.6
USD Continuing Claims (JUN 8) A 1662k | C 1680k | P 1695k | R 1699k
USD Leading Index (MAY) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P 0.2%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN A) A -7.2 | C -6.5 | P -6.5
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUN 14) A 115 | C 105.65 | P 102
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