Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.099 | EURUSD 1.12261 | AUDUSD 0.68828 | NZDUSD 0.65413 | USDCAD 1.32808 | USDCHF 0.99419 | GBPUSD 1.26417 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12733 | 1.12261
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.138 | 107.551
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26888 | 1.26348
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99382 | 0.98986
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69054 | 0.68805
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32881 | 1.32373
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65815 | 0.65348
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11476 | 1.11631
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88857 | 0.88769
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.499 | 121.118
For Today
- GBP: A more active session with good volume moving through, Cable opened on its lows and put in a quiet rise from the opening around the 1.2640 areas to push into the Tokyo session pushing through to just above the 1.2650 level, the rally continued with a quick push above the 1.2660 level and then slowly but surely pushing through to the 1.2675 areas and peaking at just below the 1.2690 as the market settled down to a slow range around the 1.2685 area to the grey hour, Downside bids weak back through the 1.2600 levels with weak stops possibly lurking just below the level and then better bids and congestion through to the 1.2550-1.2500 level, topside offers congested through the 1.2700 level and while there maybe some weak stops the congestion is likely to extend through to the 1.2750 level and probably would need some strong impetus or a slow steady grind to clear the 1.2765 level with weak stops and the market opening to a quick move to the 1.2800 with sentimental sellers only in the area.
- JPY: USDJPY moved quietly through into the Tokyo session topping around the 108.15 level however, once the rate news was out of the way the market started a reasonably quick dip through to the 107.55 area before stabilizing and basing along the line in a quieter period of the session to the grey hour, downside bids into this 107.50 level and possibly fairly strong with the potential for a quick move through to the 107.00 level before congestion starts to appear in depth with bids through to the 106.50 level with only limited stops through the level. Topside offers weak through the 108 level with light congestion all the way to the 108.50 before the market opens a little through to the 109.00 areas and strong stops just beyond and stronger congestion into the 109.30-50 areas.
- AUD: More chatter about further cuts from Lowe and early buyers had to close out, the market rose from the opening just above the 0.6880 areas to push through the 69 cents lightly and dip from the 0.6905 areas to move back to the lows and range from there into the grey hour holding just above the 0.6890 level. Topside offers through to the 0.6920 level with weak stops on a move through the level however, congestive offers are likely to reappear on any move into the 0.6940-60 level and a possible struggle to push through given the shape of the market, downside bids light back through to the 0.6870 levels with possible stops appearing on a push through the 0.6850 level and again opening a test towards the 68 cents levels, through the level would likely see congestion building through to the 0.6750.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1230 level the market saw a slow but steady rise through the day pushing into the Tokyo session pushing the 1.1240 level and then increasing its rise through to the 1.1260 area with little trouble, the market started then slowed and started a period of ranging through to the grey hour holding around the highs of 1.1270, Topside congestion continues through the 1.1300 level and increasing on any test towards the 1.1350 area before weakness to the topside appears, downside bids lightly congested through to the 1.1200 areas and increasing through the level and into the 1.1180 areas, weak stops possible through the level and further congestion through to the 1.1150 level and stronger bids.
Overnight News
IRR/USD:
Iran state news says Revolutionary Guard shoots down US drone in Hormozgan area ABC
US Military declines to immediately comment ABC
SAR:
Saudi plant struck by missile, apparently from Yemen DJ
JPY:
BoJ: Japan economy is expanding moderately as a trend although exports, output affected by overseas slowdown keeps assessment unchanged
BoJ: Japan’s economy likely to continue expanding moderately as a trend
BoJ: Decision on yield curve control made by 7-2 vote, board members Harada, Kataoka dissent
BoJ: Maintains Balance rate at -0.1%
BoJ leaves forward guidance for policy rates unchanged
Japanese investors to be wary of unhedged foreign debt – BBG
AUD:
Growing urgency in Australia to cut gain Market talk DJ
RBA renews call for help from Canberra; paves way to cut DJ
RBA Governor Lowe: structural policies also needed to boost jobs
Lowe: Possibility of lower interest rrates remains on the table
Lowe: Recent data suggest not making inroads into spare capacity
Lowe: Still considerable spare capacity in labour market
Lowe: Not unrealistic to expect further cut in cash rate
Australia may have to ditch budget surplus if trade tensions worsen – DJ
USD:
Trump says he’ll be briefed on Pittsburgh terror plot arrest BBG
Trump believes he has the authority to replace Powell at Fed BBG
US official refuses to say if Trump has authority to strike Iran after Pompeo lays out red line ABC
Global:
Currency war is the next phase of Global conflict and Europe, the chief parasite is defenceless
GBP:
Johnson’s backers’ eye early UK election, despite Brexit crisis BBG
USD/CNY:
Romney pushes to stop Trump from using Huawei to get trade deal – BBG
EUR:
ECB actively thinks about emergency plans Knot to Volkskrant RTRS
ECB’s emergency plans in case growth doesn’t pick up Knot – RTRs
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Â Â Â Â Â GDP (YoY) (1Q) A 2.5% | C 2.4% | P 2.3%
NZD Â Â Â Â Â GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q) A 0.60% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
JPY BOJ Rate Decision (JUN 20) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target (JUN 20) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
CNY FX Net Settlement – Clients CNY (MAY) A | P -53.1b
AUD RBA Governor Lowe Gives Speech in Adelaide
05:30Â Â Â Â JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (APR) C 0.70% | P -0.40%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHF Exports (MoM) (MAY) P -0.6%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHF Imports (MoM) (MAY) P 1.5%
06:00Â Â Â Â JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY F) P -27.3%
08:00Â Â Â Â EUR ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY) C -0.5% | P -0.2%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY) C 2.4% | P 4.9%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY) C -0.5% | P 0.0%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY) C 2.7% | P 5.2%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBP Bank of England Bank Rate (JUN 20) C 0.75% | P 0.75%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN) C 435b | P 435b
12:30Â Â Â Â USD Current Account Balance (1Q) C -$125.0b | P -$134.4b
12:30Â Â Â Â USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 15) C 220k | P 222k
12:30Â Â Â Â USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (JUN) C 10.4 | P 16.6
12:30Â Â Â Â USD Continuing Claims (JUN 8) C 1680k | P 1695k
14:00Â Â Â Â USD Leading Index (MAY) C 0.1% | P 0.2%
14:00Â Â Â Â EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN A) C -6.5 | P -6.5
14:30Â Â Â Â USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUN 14) P 102
23:00Â Â Â Â AUD CBA Australia PMI Mfg (JUN P) P 51.0
23:00Â Â Â Â AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (JUN P) P 51.5
23:00Â Â Â Â AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (JUN P) P 51.5
23:30Â Â Â Â JPY National CPI (YoY) (MAY) C 0.7% | P 0.9%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY) C 0.7% | P 0.9%
23:30Â Â Â Â JPY Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY) C 0.5% | P 0.6%
Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: Light trading through the Asian session saw the market lifting away from the 1.2550 lows to move steadily through to the London session rising through to the 1.2580 with a slow morning session the market once again started to rise after the inflationary news to push through the 1.2600 level and triggering weak stop tested to the 1.2640 level for the move into the NYK session, NYK picked up the ball and slowly pushed through to the 1.2680 area before drifting a little into the close.
- JPY: A slow drift from the 108.40 areas and testing lightly through to the 108.30 area before slowly recovering into the grey hour, the London session did very little early on and only once the NYK session opened did the market dip through to the 108.00 areas holed through to the close in light trading.
- AUD: A long steady drift through the Asian session with the market opening around the 0.6880 area and then trading in a tight 0.6880-70 level, early London were quick sellers sending the Oz to the 0.6855 area before starting a slow recovery to the previous range, NYK numbers saw the market spike to above the 0.6900 level testing towards the 0.6910 area before dropping back and then a slow rise through to the close back below the 69 cents level.
- EUR: A slow steady rise through the day and the lows of the day around the 1.1190 level to push into the London session pushing lightly through the 1.1200 level and testing the 1.1210 area deep into the session, the market eventually but slowly pushed through the level to push into the NYK session and a quick push from the 1.1220 through to the 1.1250 level before drifting to the close in an uneventful end to the day.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD Â Â Â Â Â BoP Current Account Balance (1Q) A 0.675B | C 0.160B | P -3.492B
NZD Â Â Â Â Â Current Account GDP Ratio YTD (1Q) A -3.6% | C -3.5% | P -3.8%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (MAY) YEN A -609.1B| C -1207.0B | P 60.4B
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (MAY) A -967.1B | C -806.9B | P -110.9B
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Exports (YoY) (MAY) A -7.8% | C -8.4% | P -2.4%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Imports (YoY) (MAY) A -1.5% | C 1.0% | P 6.4%
AUD Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY) A -0.08% | P -0.09% | R -0.05%
AUD Â Â Â Â Â Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (MAY) A -0.7% | P -1.6%
NZD Â Â Â Â Â Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAY) A 53.7% | P 53.9%
EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI (MoM) (MAY) A -0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.5%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI (YoY) (MAY) A 1.9% | C 2.2% | P 2.5%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CPIH (YoY) (MAY) A 1.9% | C 1.9% | P 2.0%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.6%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI (YoY) (MAY) A 2.0% | C 2.0% | P 2.1%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI (YoY) (MAY) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.8%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI (MAY) A 289.2 | C 288.8 | P 288.2
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 1.1%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI (YoY) (MAY) A 3.0% | C 2.9% | P 3.0%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (MAY) A 3.0% | C 2.9% | P 3.0%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.0% | C 0.2% | P 1.1%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) A 1.3% | C 0.8% | P 3.8%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) A 1.8% | C 1.8% | P 2.1%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.2%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) A 2.0% | C 2.0% | P 2.2%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index (YoY) (APR) A 1.4% | C 1.1% | P 1.4%
EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â European Commission President Juncker Speaks in Sintra
EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (APR) A -0.8% | P -0.3% | R -0.4%
EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (APR) A 3.9% | P 6.3% | R 5.8%
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders (JUN) A -15 | C -12 | P -10
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUN) A 4 | C -3 | P -1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 14) A -3.4% | P 26.8%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (MAY) 0.5% | P 0.0%
CAD Â Â Â Â Â Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (MAY) A 0.7% | P 1.2%
CAD Â Â Â Â Â Teranet/National Bank HP Index (MAY) A 223.26 | P 222.22
CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.4% | C 0.1% | P 0.4%
CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) A 2.4% | C 2.1% | P 2.0%
CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (MAY) A 136.6 | C 136 | P 136
CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAY) A 1.8% | C 1.9% | P 1.8%
CAD Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median (YoY) (MAY) A 2.1% | C 1.9% | P 1.9%
CAD Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trim (YoY) (MAY) 2.3% | C 2.1% | P 2.0%
EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB President Draghi Gives Closing Remarks at Sintra Forum
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 14) A -3106K | P 2206k
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUN 14) A 642K | P 764k
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (JUN 19) A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (JUN 19) A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (JUN 20) A 2.35% | C 2.35% | P 2.35%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Fed Chair Powell Holds Press Conference After FOMC Meeting
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