Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.522 | EURUSD 1.11063 | AUDUSD 0.68584 | NZDUSD 0.66085 | USDCAD 1.30553 | USDCHF 0.97326 | GBPUSD 1.30673 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11110 | 1.11023
USDJPY 109.598 | 109.456
GBPUSD 1.30838 | 1.3061
USDCHF 0.97360 | 0.97253
AUDUSD 0.68796 | 0.6851
USDCAD 1.30689 | 1.30539
NZDUSD 0.66233 | 0.6603
EURCHF 1.08134 | 1.08069
EURGBP 0.85003 | 0.84918
EURJPY 121.765 | 121.58
For Today
- GBP: A quiet session with the market running initially to the 1.3070 level holding then into the Tokyo session before testing back to the 1.3060 area before returning to the highs again, the move towards the grey hours saw the market rise through to test just beyond the 1.3080 level before holding quietly on the run to the London session, Downside bids into congestion to the 1.3050 level and stronger bids into 1.3000 with the market then opening to a deeper move. Topside offers light through to the 1.3200 level with some limited offers through to the 1.3220 area with possible light stops on a move through, with stronger offers likely to increase on a test through to the 1.3300 level with stops above.
- JPY: A very limited USDJPY through the session with the market dipping from the opening to make early lows around the 109.45 level and then early Tokyo managing to take the market to the 109.58 level for the range of the day and a slow quiet range through to the grey hours holding in the mid 109.50’s, Downside stops likely on a move through the 107.80 area and the market then open to the 107.50 level with some congestion and an old trendline suggesting some support and better bids congested below through to the 107.00 level, Topside offers stronger through to the 109.50 area with congestion holding the market however, beyond that the market again thickens on a push through to the 110.00 level with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening a larger move.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6855 level a slow test towards the 0.6850 level saw Tokyo appearing and the market jumping to the 0.6870 area before settling back again and then slowly pushing through to late into the session just above the 0.6870 level and holding through to the grey hours, Topside offers from the 0.7000 area through to 0.7020 where strong offers are likely to appear and while that topside should see weak stops the offers are likely to absorb any buying and continue through to the 0.7060 areas, downside bids now again building around the 0.6850 areas and congestive bids likely to support the market for the short term through to the 0.6800 level before weakness again starts to appear on a dip through the 0.6780 areas.
- EUR: Moving slowly around the opening 1.1150 level the market moved into the Tokyo session quickly testing towards the 1.1170 level before drifting back through to the 1.1155 level into the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.
Overnight News
USD/CNY:
Trump tweets China deal should be signed shortly after Jan 15 – TWT
AUD:
Australian shoppers return in November, but signs are bleak for Q4
USD/JPY/KRW:
Pompeo to meet Japan, S. Korea on N. Korea tensions
JPY:
Household spending falls for 2nd straight month in November
USD/IRR:
Iran retaliated, now may come the covert proxy revenge – HAA
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index A 48.7 | P 53.7
JPY Overall Household Spending YoY (NOV) A -2.0% | C -2.0% | P -5.1%
JPY Coincident Index (NOV P) A 95.1 | C 95.2 | 95.3
JPY Leading Index CI (NOV P) A 90.9 | C 90.9 | P 91.6
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate (DEC) C 2.5% | P 2.3%
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC) C 2.3% | P 2.3%
1200 MXN Industrial Production NSA YoY (NOV) C -1.6% | P -3.0%
1330 CAD Net Change in Employment (DEC) C 25.0k | P -71.2k
1330 CAD Unemployment Rate (DEC) C 5.8% | P 5.9%
1330 CAD Full Time Employment Change (DEC) C 21.4k | P -38.4k
1330 CAD Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees C 4.2% | P 4.4%
1330 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (DEC) C 160k | P 266k
1330 USD Unemployment Rate (DEC) C 3.5% | P 3.5%
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (DEC) C 3.1% | P 3.1%
1330 USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (DEC) C 34.4 | P 34.4
1330 USD Change in Private Payrolls C 152k | P 254k
1800 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (JAN10) P 796
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session to hold around the 1.3115 area and contained towards that level through into the grey hours before slow buyers tested lightly through the 1.3120 area before slowly sliding into the London session, BoE governor Carney’s speech while upbeat over Brexit didn’t help the Cable and the market dropped quickly through to the 1.3020 level before finding some stability and stronger bids to hold the market at the 1.3015 level and a slow grind into the NYK session and a slow rise through to the 1.3070 levels and a long run to the close.
- JPY: A slow but steady recovery for the USD across much of the complex with USDJPY quickly rising from the early lows just above the 109.00 area to test the 109.20 on the Tokyo opening and then after several hours of holding quietly starting a slow push higher on the move into the grey hours, steadily pushing through the early hours of London to test to the 109.50 level the market paused for the move into the NYK session before again starting a slow rise through to the 109.60 levels and then holding in a long run through to the close.
- AUD: Another day of holding in a narrow range with the AUD initially rising with the help of a weaker JPY to make the highs just through the 0.6880 level before ranging for the most part in the 0.6875-70 area through to the London session, the market quickly dipped from the opening as USD buying moved in and tested through to the 0.6855 level bouncing only slightly to hold just above the 0.6860 level for much of the session into the NYK session before finally testing back to the 0.6850 areas again for the long run to the close.
- EUR: A quiet Asian session running in a narrow range from the 1.1190 level and never quiet challenging the 1.1200 level, the move into the grey hours saw the market breaking a little lower and the market drifting through to the London opening testing the 1.1170 level before dropping again on German IP numbers again negative before bouncing a little for the move into the NYK session where sellers steadily sold the market through to the end of London to test the 1.1130 areas and the lows for the day, a limited run through to the close saw the market rise only to the 1.1150 area.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD Trade Balance A 5800m | C 4100m | P 4075m
CNY CPI YoY (DEC) A 4.5% | C 4.7% | P 4.5%
CNY PPI YoY (DEC) A -0.5% | C -0.4% | P -1.4%
CHF Preliminary data on SNB Annual result
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a./w.d.a. YoY (NOV) A -2.6% | C -3.6% | P -5.3% | -4.6%
EUR German Trade Balance (NOV) 18.3b | C 21b | P 21.5b
CHF Retail Sales YoY (NOV) A 0.0% | P 0.7%
GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks in London
EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (NOV) A 7.5% | C 7.5% | P 7.5%
MXN CPI YoY (DEC) A 2.83% | C 2.76% | P 2.97%
CAD Housing starts A 197.3k | C 211.9k | P 201.3k
CAD Building Permits MoM (NOV) A -2.4% | C 1.0% | P -1.5%
USD Continuing Claims (DEC 28) A 1803k | C 1719k | P 1728k
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 4) A 214k | C 221k | P 222k
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