Special report: US Jobs Report Preview
Today’s report: Stocks do what they do
We’re set to close out the week with the US equity market easily managing its way through yet another wave of downside risk, extending the run of record gains. There was barely a moment of weakness on the escalation of tension between the US and Iran, and now that this risk has calmed, stocks are right back to the business of doing what they do.
- Healthy data
- GBPUSD BOE Carney comments hit Pound
- jobs report
- tougher battle
- retail sales
- BoC Poloz
- NZDUSD Cross-related selling against Aussie
- more sensitive
- hard asset
- institutional demand
- traditional markets
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
EURUSD – technical overviewThe downtrend off the 2018 high is looking exhausted and the prospect for a meaningful higher low is more compelling. A higher low is now sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Only a weekly close back below 1.0800 would compromise this outlook. Back above 1.1412 will strengthen the view.
- R2 1.1250 – 6 August high – Strong
- R1 1.1239 - 31 December high – Medium
- S1 1.1093 - 9 January low – Medium
- S2 1.1066 – 20 December low – Strong
EURUSD – fundamental overviewIt was back to some more solid data for the Euro on Thursday and overall, a good round of reads out of the zone this week. Still, the Euro was under pressure on the back of some broad based US Dollar demand. But dealers continue to report heavy demand into dips from medium and longer term accounts. Looking ahead, the only standout of note on the Friday calendar comes in the form of the US monthly jobs report.
EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overviewThe market has seen a recovery out from the lowest levels since 2016, with the price now pushing back above the weekly Ichimoku cloud to signal a bullish structural shift. Ultimately, only back below the 1.2500 handle would compromise the newly established constructive medium and longer-term outlook. Next key resistance comes in the form of the monthly high from September 2017 at 1.3658, with setbacks expected to be well supported ahead of 1.2800.
- R2 1.3300 – Figure – Strong
- R1 1.3285 – 31 December high – Medium
- S1 1.3013 – 9 January low – Medium
- S2 1.2905 – 23 December low – Strong
GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound was already suffering this week from a wave of broad based US Dollar demand, before taking an added hit on Thursday from outgoing BOE Governor Carney comments. The central banker said UK economic growth has 'slowed below potential', and the central bank was 'debating the merits of near-term stimulus and 'had the equivalent of 250 basis points of policy space'. Still, there is plenty of demand reported for the Pound into dips from medium and longer term players. In other news, Boris Johnson's Brexit bill cleared its final hurdle in the House of Commons. Looking ahead, the only standout of note on the Friday calendar comes in the form of the US monthly jobs report.
USDJPY – technical overviewDespite rally attempts, the longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact. Rallies should continue to be well capped below 110.00 on a monthly closes basis, with deeper setbacks anticipated towards a retest of the yearly low, below which exposes critical support in the form of the 2016 low at 99.00 further down. Next major support comes in the form of the October 2018 low at 106.48.
- R2 110.00 – Psychological – Strong
- R1 109.73– 2 December high – Strong
- S1 108.64 – 7 January high – Medium
- S2 107.65 – 8 January low – Strong
USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe deescalation of tension between the US and Iran has been having a clear impact on the major pair this week, with risk appetite picking back up and bringing USDJPY with it. Looking ahead, the only standout of note on the Friday calendar comes in the form of the US monthly jobs report.
EURCHF – technical overviewThe market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A break back above 1.1060 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Below 1.0800 exposes the 1.0600 area.
- R2 1.1060 – 17 October high – Strong
- R1 1.0906 – 27 December high – Medium
- S1 1.0783 – 8 January/2019 low – Medium
- S2 1.0700 – Figure – Strong
EURCHF – fundamental overviewThe SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of risk liquidation in 2020, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.
AUDUSD – technical overviewThe market has been under pressure over the past several months, but has also been well supported on dips. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7100 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported above 0.6700 on a weekly close basis.
- R2 0.7032 –31 December high – Strong
- R1 0.6958 – 6 January high – Medium
- S1 0.6850 – 8 January low – Medium
- S2 0.6838 – 17 December low – Strong
AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has done a good job recovering into the end of the week, getting a lift from Thursday's trade data and Friday's above forecast retail sales. Earlier in the week, there was concern about soft job ads that had the market thinking about RBA rate cuts. Aussie has also been working through downside pressure that had come from broad based US Dollar strength and risk off flow from US tension with Iran. Looking ahead, the only standout of note on the Friday calendar comes in the form of the US monthly jobs report.
USDCAD – technical overviewThe downturn in late 2019 has resulted in a medium-term shift in the trend, with the pressure back on the downside. The break back below major psychological support at 1.3000 now exposes deeper setbacks towards the 1.2782 low from September 2018. At this stage, the market would need to push back above the November 2019 high at 1.3328 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.
- R2 1.3182 – 20 December high – Strong
- R1 1.3105 - 9 January high – Medium
- S1 1.3000 – Psychological – Strong
- S2 1.2952 – 31 December/2019 low – Strong
USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has come back under pressure after recently pushing up to a multi-month high against the Buck. The move correlates with this week's sharp reversal in the price of OIL, after the commodity had rallied up to its highest levels in 8 months. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz was also not a help to the Canadian Dollar after saying the most recent economic data have been 'mixed', and the damage inflicted on the global economy from ongoing trade tensions is 'likely permanent'. Looking ahead, Friday is all about the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US.
NZDUSD – technical overviewThere's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market rallying out from longer-term cycle low area around 0.6200. As such, look for setbacks to be well supported in the days ahead, in anticipation of a continued recovery. Only a weekly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6800 strengthens the outlook and takes the medium to longer-term pressure off the downside.
- R2 0.6756 – 31 December high – Strong
- R1 0.6700 – Figure – Medium
- S1 0.6600 – Figure – Medium
- S2 0.6554 – 18 December low – Strong
NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThings have been quiet on the domestic front for the New Zealand Dollar and the currency has spent most of its time tracking with the bigger picture themes. We have seen some cross related demand for a beaten down AUDNZD rate, which could be weighing a little on Kiwi's recovery attempt against the Buck. Looking ahead, the only standout of note on the Friday calendar comes in the form of the US monthly jobs report.
US SPX 500 – technical overviewThere have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of a major correction targeting an eventual test of the 2018 low at 2339. The initial level of major support comes in at 3070, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A monthly close above 3300 would be required to compromise the outlook.
- R2 3300 – Psychological – Strong
- R1 3285 – 10 January/Record high – Strong
- S1 3200 – Psychological – Medium
- S2 3070 – 3 December low – Strong
US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewAlthough we've seen the market extending to fresh record highs, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run, on easy money policy incentives, should no longer be as enticing to investors as it once was. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front and geopolitical risk, should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment into 2020, despite any signs that would suggest otherwise. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1650 (measured move extension target), while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1400.
- R2 1650 – Measured move target – Strong
- R1 1612 – 8 January/2019 high – Medium
- S1 1500 – Psychological – Medium
- S2 1445– 12 November low – Strong
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.
BTCUSD – technical overviewSetbacks should be very well supported in the 6,000 area, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,750 would compromise the constructive outlook. Back above 10,468 further encourages bullish prospect.
- R2 10,468– 26 October high – Strong
- R1 8,435 – 8 January high – Medium
- S1 7,000 – Psychological – Strong
- S2 6,430 – 18 December low – Strong
BTCUSD – fundamental overviewBitcoin demand is expected to pick up in 2020, with market forces to likely make a stronger argument for the emerging cryptocurrency. In a world where rates are at historic lows and the equity market looks to be inching closer to major capitulation, the idea of owning a decentralised, limited supply currency, becomes increasingly attractive as a store of value. Moreover, there is plenty of development going on in the decentralised technology space, which should only add to the draw.
BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overviewThe market is in the process of a major correction after a surge in the second quarter of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above of previous resistance turned support at 100 on a weekly close basis, in favour of the next major higher low and bullish resumption back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 100 would compromise the outlook.
- R2 225 – 19 September high – Strong
- R1 200 – Psychological – Medium
- S1 117 – 18 December low – Medium
- S2 102 – 6 February/2019 low – Strong