Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.810 | EURUSD 1.22703 | AUDUSD 0.7767 | NZDUSD 0.72452 | USDCAD 1.26887 | USDCHF 0.88537 | GBPUSD 1.35642 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.22745 | 1.22352
USDJPY 103.999 | 103.772
GBPUSD 1.35728 | 1.35387
USDCHF 0.88709 | 0.88486
AUDUSD 0.77769 | 0.77398
NZDUSD 0.72680 | 0.72399
USDCAD 1.27018 | 1.26765
EURCHF 1.08675 | 1.0846
EURGBP 0.90451 | 0.90341
EURJPY 127.428 | 127.226
For Today
- GBP: Quiet session holding around the 1.3565 area opening into the Tokyo session initially testing just above the 1.3570 level before drifting through to the 1.3540 area to make the early lows then recovered steadily to trade around the 1.3560 area to the grey hours, light offers through to the 1.3620 area with some light congestion likely to continue through to the 1.3650 area before some limited offers through to the stronger 1.3700 level and weak stops above the level with stronger offers then ahead. Downside bids through to the 1.3500 level likely to be a little light and improving into the figure with weak stops on a move below the figure before stronger bids around the sentimental 1.3450 area.
- JPY: Ranging for the most part around the opening 103.80 area before moving into the Tokyo session testing through to the 104.00 area before drifting back off and holding through to the grey hours, Offers through the 104.00 level with likely weak stops on a move to the 104.20 area and the with congestion around the 104.40-60 area and then increasing into the 104.80 level with strong offers through the 105.00 area, Downside bids light through to the 103.00 level before stronger bids start to appear and increase through to the 102.50 area with very little in the way of stops on a dip through with likely increasing bids to the 102.00 areas and likely to see stronger bids continuing from importers.
- AUD: A quick stab lower testing the 0.7750 area before returning to the 0.7760 area and rising slowly to the Tokyo session pressing the 0.7770 area and Tokyo before quickly dropping back through to the 0.7740 area, the road back was a longer time arriving testing through to the 0.7775 areas for the grey hours. Topside offers through the 0.7800 area with weak stops likely to be through the 0.7820-30 areas with light offers through to the 0.7850 area before better offers appear on any move for the 79 cents level, Downside bids light through to the 0.7740 area with some light weakness before stronger bids starts to appear through to the 77 cents level with weak stops on a break through the 0.7680 level.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2270 area moving through into the Tokyo session holding quietly USD buying saw the Euro quickly dip through to the 1.2235 area before slowly recovering through to the 1.2260 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.2340-60 area with a little weakness above however, the market is likely to find increasing offers through the 1.2400 area with weak stops likely above the 1.2420 levels with heavy offers, downside bids light through to the 1.2200 area with limited bids in the sentimental areas before opening up only on a dip through the 1.2150 area but unlikely today.
Overnight News
AUD:
UK virus strain triggers lockdown in Australia’s Brisbane – AFR
Australia tightens border controls on UK Covid strain threat – BBG
RBA shouldn’t relent in jobs pursuit – AFR
Vaccine scepticism among medics sparks alarm – AFR/FT
USD/CNY:
MSCI cuts China Telcos from indexes after Trump ban – shares fall – BBG
Additional list of securities to be deleted from the MSCI ACWI indexes following US executive order – BBG
MSCI indexes to drop China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom – BBG
Pompeo angers China with Hong Kong threat, plan to send envoy to Taiwan – RTRs
USD/KRW:
Apple may team up with Hyundai for cars – BBG
USD:
More states are detecting the highly contagious virus variant – NYT
Carried interest tax break restricted in new IRS regulations – BBG
JPY:
Honda Motor will reduce vehicle production due to a supply crunch in semiconductors – Nikkei
GBP:
UK Job market strengthened in Dec for first time in three months – RTRs
CNY:
Beijing’s Coldest spell since 1966 is spurring energy prices – BBG
Today’s Data
JPY Household Spending YoY (NOV) A 1.1% | C -1.5% | P 1.9%
JPY Household Spending MoM (NOV) A -1.8% | C -1.3% | P 2.1%
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (DEC) A | C 3.4% | P 3.3%
0645 CHF Unemployment s.a. (DEC) A | C 3.5% | P 3.4%
0700 EUR German Industrial Production MoM (NOV) A | C 0.7% | P 3.2%
0700 EUR German Trade Balance (NOV) A | C 18.0b | P 18.2b
0830 GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY A | P 7.6%
0830 GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (DEC) A | C 0.5% | P 1.2%
0930 GBP Labour Productivity (Q3) A | P -1.8%
1000 EUR Unemployment Rate (NOV) A | C 8.5% | P 8.4%
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (DEC) A | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (DEC) A | C 4.4% | P 4.4%
1330 USD NonFarm Payrolls (DEC) A | C 71k | P 245k
1330 USD Participation Rate (DEC) A | P 61.5%
1330 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (DEC) A | C 98k | P 344k
1330 USD Unemployment Rate (DEC) A | C 6.8% | P 6.7%
1330 CAD Employment Change (DEC) A | C -27.5K | P 62.1k
1330 CAD Unemployment Rate (DEC) A | C 8.6% | P 8.5%
1600 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 351
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A reasonably choppy day with the market opening around the 1.3610 areas and after a stuttering first hour the market moved off the 1.3600 level and rose through into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.3630 level before drifting back a little, USD Buying moved through the market with the Cable dropping quickly through to 1.3570 areas before starting a slow recovery through to late in the sessions, a dip through to the grey hours saw the lows extended slightly and then London opening took the market quickly above the 1.3620 areas before sliding off through to the NYK session and a jump higher and then after a brief push to the 1.3600 level tell back again through to the 1.3540 area before holding quietly around the 1.3560 level to the close.
- JPY: Opening quietly just above the 103.00 level and the move through to the Tokyo session saw the market dipping through to the 102.95 areas for the lows of the day, a slow rise through to the 103.25 area before pausing through to the grey hours, a slow push through the grey hours through to the 103.50 area for the opening in London and continued USD buyers taking the market into the NYK session testing the 103.75 areas dipping and then running again once the full market was in play test towards the 103.95 area before holding quietly just off those levels.
- AUD: Early trading saw the highs of the day with the Oz heading into the Tokyo session pushing lightly through the 0.7815 area before dropping quickly back testing towards the 0.7790 areas holding for the most part through to late in the session, the move through into the grey hours again slipping lower testing the 0.7775 level before bouncing for the London opening but unable to push the 0.7800 area and the failure saw the market dipping bouncing lightly on the 0.7770 area before running again this time in a tight channelled move to the 0.7730 level with those lows extended into the NYK session before slowly recovering to the 0.7770 area.
- EUR: A similar pattern with early buyers setting the highs above the 1.2340 level before slowly drifting through to the grey hours pushing the 1.2315 area, the move into the London session saw USD buying moving the Euro through to the 1.2250 area to form the base for the day with light moves through the levels before running quietly on a long drawn out range around the 1.2270 level to the close.
Premiership Results
AUD Building Approvals MoM (NOV) A 2.6% | C 2.5% | P 3.8%
AUD Trade Balance (NOV) A 5.022b | C 6.000b | P 7.458b
EUR German Factory Orders MoM (NOV) A 2.3% | C -1.2% | P 2.9% | R 3.3%
CHF Retail Sales YoY (NOV) A 1.7% | P 3.1% | R 4.3%
EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (DEC) A 47.1 | P 45.6
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
GBP Construction PMI (DEC) A 54.6 | C 55.0 | P 54.7
EUR Core CPI YoY (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
EUR CPI YoY (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.2% | P -0.3%
EUR Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A -6.1% | C -3.4% | P 1.5% | R 1.4%
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
USD Exports A 184.2b | P 182.0b
USD Imports A 252.3b | 245.10b
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 787k | C 800k | P 787k | R 790k
USD Trade Balance (NOV) A -66.1b | C -65.20b | R -63.10b
CAD Trade Balance (NOV) A -3.34b | C -3.50b | P -3.76b | R -3.73b
USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (DEC) A 48.2 | P 51.5
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 57.2 | C 54.6 | P 55.9
CAD Ivey PMI (DEC) A 46.7 | C 54.7 | P 52.7
USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.