Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 103.754 | EURUSD 1.22056 | AUDUSD 0.77736 | NZDUSD 0.71917 | USDCAD 1.27133 | USDCHF 0.88647 | GBPUSD 1.36661 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.22208 | 1.22022

USDJPY                103.813 | 103.525

GBPUSD              1.36924 | 1.36558

USDCHF              0.88711 | 0.88565

AUDUSD              0.77818 | 0.77593

NZDUSD              0.72397 | 0.72209

USDCAD              1.27203 | 1.27045

EURCHF               1.08228 | 1.08184

EURGBP              0.89329 | 0.89238

EURJPY                126.748 | 126.443

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A quiet rise from the opening around the 1.3665 area to push through into the Tokyo session testing 1.3680 area, a brief pause before pushing slowly through to peak just above the 1.3690 area before drifting a little for the move into the grey hours around the 1.3675 area, Topside offers through the 1.3700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 1.3720 area to quickly test through to the 1.3750 area and some limited offers likely and increasing offers through to the 1.3800 area and stronger congestion likely from there on, downside bids light back through the 1.3600 level with weak stop light through the level and light bids through the sentimental levels before stronger bids appear around the 1.3450 level.
  • JPY: Opening a touch higher the market spiked to the 103.84 area before holding around the 103.80 area through into the Tokyo session slowly dipping through to the 103.55 area not quiet stretching to the 103.50 level before slowly moving into the mid 103.60’s for the move into the grey hours, topside congestion around the 104.40-60 area and then increasing into the 104.80 level with strong offers through the 105.00 area, Downside bids light through to the 103.00 level before stronger bids start to appear and increase through to the 102.50 area with very little in the way of stops on a dip through with likely increasing bids to the 102.00 areas and likely to see stronger bids continuing from importers.
  • AUD: Moving from the opening 0.7775 a light drift through into the Tokyo session slipping to 0.7770 before Tokyo moved through to push the market through the 0.7780 area for the high of the session and an ever decreasing range on a move through to the grey hours pushing towards the 0.7760. light bids into the 0.7700 area and then a little patchy through to the 0.7660-40 area with stronger bids on a move through to the 0.7620 level with weak stops likely through into the 0.7580 area and the market then congested through sentimental levels. Topside offers into the 0.7780 area likely to be quite strong through to the 0.7820 area before option barriers are likely to be cleared and break out stops join weak stops for a strong move through to the 0.7850 area however, congestion is likely to kick in from there through to the 0.7880 area and increasing into the 79 cents level before the topside opens up for a move towards the 80cents level, downside bids light through the 77 cents area with weak stops likely through the 0.7680 area and opening weakness through to the 76 cents where congestion is likely to be waiting to slow any descent, stronger bids through to the 0.7550 likely to be limiting.
  • EUR: A limited session with the market rising from the low 1.2205 area to push lightly through to the 1.2215 area ranging around the level peaking just above the 1.2220 area before drifting back to the 1.2210 for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through the 1.2220 area and continuing lightly through to the 1.2250 area where the market starts to thicken a little on the offer and the closer the market moves to the 1.2280 area the stronger the offers, a push through the 1.2300 area will likely see stronger offers building with short term sellers likely joining the queue with weak stops on a strong push through the 1.2320-30 areas opening only to the 1.2350 areas. Downside bids getting stronger the closer the market gets to the 1.2120 area with likely stronger congestion through the area and strong stops on a push through the 1.2080 area with very limited bids to support the market through to the 1.20 handle.

 

 

Overnight News

 

CNY:

China said to tell financial firms to limit debt raised offshore – BBG

GBP:

Economy faces darkest hour, warns Bailey, as Negative rates split emerges – TEL

CNY/AUD:

China-Australia relations, breaking free of dependency on Australian iron ore, but where is China looking – SCMP

CNY/INR:

China pulls 10k troops from India border – SMP

NZD:

ANZ Bank no longer sees need for RBNZ to take cash rate negative – BBG

JPY:

Overview of Japan carmakers halting output due to chip shortage – BBG

USD/EUR:

US tells European companies they face sanctions risk on Nord Stream pipeline – RTR’s

 

Today’s Data     

0900      EUR       ECB Lagarde Speaks

1000      EUR       Industrial Production MoM (NOV) A | C 0.2% | P 2.1%

1330      USD       Core CPI YoY (DEC) A | C 1.6% | P 1.6%

1330      USD       Core CPI MoM (DEC) A | C 0.1% | P 0.2%

1330      USD       CPI MoM (DEC) A | C 0.4% | P 0.2%

1430      USD       FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

1530      USD       Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.266m | P -8.010m

1800      USD       FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

1900      USD       Beige Book

1900      USD       Federal Budget Balance (DEC) A | C -200.0b | P -145.0b

1900      USD       FOMC Member Harker Speaks

2000      USD       FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

2145      NZD       Building Consents MoM (NOV) A | P 8.8%

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: opening around the 1.3525 area and lifting off the 1.3510 area in early Tokyo to set the lows for the day, the move through to the grey hours saw the market breaking out of the tight range to push through to the 1.3550 level flirting with the levels for awhile before testing to the 1.3570 areas and after a brief dip quickly moved higher through to the 1.3600 level and a tight range for several hours before again stepping swiftly through to the 1.3620-30 area to hold again through to the close of London and then starting a slow climb through to the 1.3670 level for a run to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY ranged from the 104.10 level through to the 104.30 area to make highs just above the level, moving from the 104.10 level area open the market eased through the 104.30 area and continued to hold area through to the lead in to the grey hours before drifting back off through into early London to test towards the 104.10 area again, NYK made the high just beyond 104.30 however, having done that the sellers steadily took the market through to the lows for the move to the close testing the 103.72 area.
  • AUD: Tight range around the opening level of 0.7700 area rising into early Tokyo testing the 0.7710 area and slowly drifting back to the opening level, eventually dropping through the level to push the 0.7690 level a short period around the opening level again before making the lows of the day just through the 0.7690 level, the move to the grey hours saw the market recovering as the AUD recovered a little with a weaker USDJPY testing through into the London session push through the 0.7730 area before dipping a little and running for the 0.7740 area to range through to the NYK session, NYK saw some sellers testing back to the opening level before starting a slow but steady climb through the balance of the session as USD sellers entered the market through to the highs around the 0.7775 area.
  • EUR: A quiet range through most of the day before the FED members started talking for the second day to justify their employment as Biden waits in the wings, rising a little from the open pushing from the 1.2150 to test lightly above the 1.2160 area however, the move deeper into the Tokyo session saw some weak EURJPY selling and a dip through to the 1.2140 area and the base for the day, then moving through the grey hours through to push above the 1.2170 areas for the London opening, with London moving a little choppily through to test the 1.2180 area before slowly drifting for the move into NYK to range through to the London close around the 1.2150 area, USD sellers saw the Euro gradually gaining the 1.2200 level to hold just below the 1.2210 area for the close.

 

Premiership Results

JPY         Adjusted Current Account A 2.34t | P 1.98t

JPY         Current Account n.s.a. (NOV) A 1.878t | C 1.551t | P 2.145t

GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (DEC) A 4.8% | P 7.7%

CNY       New Loans (DEC) A 1,260.0b | C 1.220.0b | P 1,430.0b

USD       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

USD       FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

USD       JOLTs Job Openings (NOV) A 4.59% | P 6.652m

USD       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

USD       FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

USD       FOMC Member Mester Speaks

USD       GOMC Member George Speaks

USD       API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -2.700m | P -1.663m

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.