Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.56 | EURUSD 1.19616 | AUDUSD 0.76003 | NZDUSD 0.71506 | USDCAD 1.28246 | USDCHF 0.90438 | GBPUSD 1.36711 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19768 | 1.19521
USDJPY 105.698 | 105.460
GBPUSD 1.36900 | 1.36623
USDCHF 0.90463 | 0.90362
AUDUSD 0.76087 | 0.75829
NZDUSD 0.71650 | 0.71364
USDCAD 1.28323 | 1.28137
EURCHF 1.08200 | 1.08109
EURGBP 0.87521 | 0.87423
EURJPY 126.394 | 126.168
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise from the opening lows around the 1.3665 area and a steady push through to the 1.3690 area before ranging for a short period in the 80-90 area before dipping back to the opening level and a quiet range into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3750 area with weak stops covered by stronger offers the closer the market pushes towards the 1.3800 area, weak stops through the level on a move through and likely to continue only a short distance before weakness appears and the topside opens up through to the 1.40 handle with sentimental offers limited. Downside bids through the 1.3600 area and stops losses through the level and a light run through to the 1.3550 area and strong bids start to appear and continue to increase into the 1.3500 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 105.55 area before spiking through the 15.65 area before moving into the Tokyo session dipping quickly through the 105.50 level and then trading around the level in a steady move to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 106.00 area with congestion through the level with weak stops likely on a move through to the 106.20 area and then further strong congestion into 106.50 area, increasing offers through the 106.70 area and continuing into the 107.00 level with stronger offers on a further test higher into the 107.50 area. Downside bids light back through the 105.00 level with increasing bids into the 104.50 level with bids beginning to fill the market around the level and stronger bids into the 104.00-20 areas and stronger bids below the 103.60 levels.
- AUD: RBA sentiment starts to play on the market with the AUD drifting from the early attempt at the 0.7610 area to step lower through to the 0.7580 area before recovering to mid-0.7690’s for the move into the grey hours, downside bids light through to the 0.7560 area and bids likely to be strong through to the 0.7550 areas and increasing on any move into the 0.7500-0.7480 area with strong stops through the level and opening stronger downside potential, topside bids light through the 0.7650 area and limited build of offers around the 77 cents level sees limited stops and the market then starting to increase resistance on any move through the 0.7750 level.
- EUR: Early trading saw the market rising to the 1.1970 level for the move into the Tokyo session before dropping a little into midsession holding quietly in the 1.1955 area for the move into the grey hours, Downside strong sentimental levels 1.1950 and through to the 1.1900 level with stronger bids likely until the 1.1880 breaks and weak stops appear, Topside offers into and through the 1.2080 area continuing to the 1.2120 area before weakness appears and light weak stops open the 1.2150 area for a test, from there though topside offers start to increase into the 1.2200 level and above to limit any sudden moves,
Overnight News
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe: Doesn’t expect rate rise before 2024, possibly later
Lowe: expects continued solid jobs growth over next few months
Lowe: when job keeper ends in March, RBA sees some job losses
Lowe: Wants to see house lending standards remain strong
Lowe: RBA does not and should not target house prices
Lowe: Estimate bond purchases lowered long-term yields by 30bps
Lowe: Bank will consider extending TFF if conditions worsen
Lowe: No decision yet on whether to shift YCC target to NOV 24
Lowe: Before raising rates, RBA wants CPI sustainably 2% to 3%
Lowe: Interest rates will be low for quite a while yet
RBA to set off raging bull markets – AFR
Australia calls for UN access to Xinjiang amid fresh Uighu abuse claims – AFR
RBA’s Ellis: Businesses are resuming hiring where staff needed
RBA warns wages freeze may chill Covid-19 economic recovery – AUB
RBA goes hard as Morrison government goes timid – AFR
USD:
Trump refuses to testify in unconstitutional impeachment trial – AFP
GOP puts minimum wage, School reopening in Covid-19 aid spotlight DJ
Today’s Data
AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
JPY Household Spending YoY (DEC) A -0.6% | C -2.4% | P 1.1%
JPY Household Spending MoM (DEC) A 0.9% | C -1.9% | P -1.8%
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
AUD Retails Sales MoM (DEC) A -4.1% | P -4.2%
0700 EUR German Factory Orders MoM (DEC) A | C -1.0% | P 2.3%
0830 GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY A | P 6.0%
0830 GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (JAN) A | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
1130 EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
1330 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (JAN) A | C 5.1% | P 5.1%
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (JAN) A | C 0.3% | P 0.8%
1330 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN) A | C 50k | P -140k
1330 USD Participation rate (JAN) A | P 61.5%
1330 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN) A | C 50k | P -95k
1330 USD Trade Balance (DEC) A | C -65.70b | P -68.10b
1330 USD Unemployment Rate (JAN) A | C 6.7% | P 6.7%
1330 CAD Employment Change (JAN) A | C -47.5k | P -62.6k
1330 CAD Trade Balance (DEC) A | C -3.00b | P -3.34b
1330 CAD Unemployment Rate (JAN) A | C 8.9% | P 8.6%
1330 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1500 CAD Ivey PMI (JAN) A | P 46.7
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 378
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: As diplomacy starts to leave the arena the day is mired with the threat of Article 16 being used again this time from the side of the UK as it turns out that UK soil is not allowed in some parts of the UK under the terms struck by the then PM May, the fact that potatoes are not allowed to be shipped into the supermarkets in N. Ireland or for that part the N. Ireland farmers can’t replace there aging tractors just in case they’ve been driven across some naked soil sends EU monitors scurrying home and a blanket ban issued, Initially the USD saw steady buying as is want on a Thursday with the market testing into the Tokyo session pushing above the 1.3650 area before drifting through into the London session pushing through the 1.3600 level and continuing on a steady tight range through to the 1.3575 area, the move through into the Tokyo session saw strong EURGBP selling with the GBP recovering its losses quickly as those across the pond saw opportunities for a stronger GBP and no worries about Brexit becoming a no deal Brexit, quickly hitting the original highs around the 1.3650 level the market paused only for a brief period before running for a second move through to just below the 1.3700 level before drifting back and holding for a couple of hours around the 1.3660 level and then rise through to the 1.3670 area and then finish just off the level.
- JPY: Opening just above the 105.00 area dipping a little through into the high 104.90’s, Tokyo came in buying steadily through the day with the first uninterrupted rally through to the 105.20 level ranging through the grey hours and then breaking steadily through to the 105.30 area for the opening in NYK, another rally through to the 105.45 area seemed to limit the market for a couple of hours and then forced its way through to the close around the 105.55 area.
- AUD: After a short quiet period the AUD started a small move through to the Tokyo session testing through into the 0.7635 area from the 0.7620 opening, a light dip and then ran through steadily to the high of the day around the 0.7648 areas, RBA continued the dovish chatter after a strong trade balance given current situation with China, the market then dipped through into the midsession holding around the 0.7630 area and then ranging around the level with minor runs to the 0.7620 area, the move into the grey hours saw very little movement and even London opening was unassuming in manner, midmorning in London eventually found some gaps and the market tipped below the 0.7610 area bouncing once then running to the downside level trading through to the NYK Option cut holding around the 0.7590 area for a slow move to the figure level for the close.
- EUR: USD buying through the Tokyo session having opened around the 1.2035 area and testing lightly above the 1.2040 into Tokyo, from there though it was all one way in steady selling with Euro’s doing worse than the other pairs, moving through to the grey hours holding the 1.2010 area before tipping over to the 1.1990 level from the London opening and then running in a tight range through the session, the move into the NYK session saw mixed fortunes for the USD with EURGBP sellers forcing the Euro through to the end of London testing the 1.1960 area before ranging quietly through to the close.
Premiership Results
NZD Building Consents MoM (DEC) A 4.9% | P 1.2%
USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A 14 | P -10 | R -8
AUD Trade Balance (DEC) A 6.785b | P 5.022b
CHF SECO Consumer Climate (Q1) A -15 | P -30 | R -13
EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (JAN) A 46.6 | P 47.1
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
GBP Construction PMI (JAN) A 49.2 | C 52.9 | P 54.6
EUR Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A 2.0% | C 1.6% | P -6.1% | R -5.7%
GBP BoE MPC Vote (FEB) A 9 | C 9 | P 9
GBP BoE QE Total (FEB) A 875b | C 875b | P 875b
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 779k | C 830k | P 847k
USD Non-Farm Productivity QoQ (Q4) A -4.8% | C -2.8% | P 4.6% | R 5.1%
USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q4) A 6.8% | C 4.0% | P -6.6% | R -7.0%
USD Factory Orders MoM (DEC) A 1.1% | C 0.7% | P 1.0%
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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