Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.567 | EURUSD 1.21201 | AUDUSD 0.77389 | NZDUSD 0.7234 | USDCAD 1.26921 | USDCHF 0.89232 | GBPUSD 1.38153 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21298 | 1.21088
USDJPY 104.711 | 104.513
GBPUSD 1.38272 | 1.38032
USDCHF 0.89313 | 0.89147
AUDUSD 0.77431 | 0.77255
NZDUSD 0.72433 | 0.72233
USDCAD 1.27101 | 1.26934
EURCHF 1.08186 | 1.08131
EURGBP 0.87756 | 0.87686
EURJPY 126.901 | 126.604
For Today
- GBP: Opening a touch lower the market struggled to fill the gap before moving into the Tokyo session drifting through to test towards the 1.3800 figure level before recovering off the lows to push through to the 1.3828 area and into the offers to hold into the grey hours, Topside congestion through the current levels increasing through the 1.3850 area and through to the 1.3900 level before weak stops appear however the congestion is likely to continue through the 2017/18 ranges with some weakness on the 1.40 handle, downside bids light through the 1.3800 area and weak stops likely on a strong dip through to the 1.3750 area opening a quick squeeze through the 1.3700 level before stronger bids are likely to appear.
- JPY: A reasonably quiet session for the USDJPY with early Tokyo moving off the lows around the 104.50 area to push steadily to the 104.70 area before drifting back for the move into the grey hours pressing the 104.50 areas again. Downside bids through to the 104.40 level before some lighter bids appear, stronger bids through the 104.20-103.80 area will likely see weak stops however, strong bids are likely to appear on any test of the 103.50 area and continuing through to the 103.00 level, Topside offers light through the 105.00 level and increasing into the 105.40-60 area however, strong resistance remains in the 105.80-106.00 level with congestion likely to continue through the 106.70-107.00 areas.
- AUD: A slightly weaker start saw the market running through the 0.7740 area from the low 0.7730’s the move into the Tokyo session testing the 0.7742 area and drifting through to the 0.7725 area and then slowly recovery through to the 0.7740 highs for the move into the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7750 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
- EUR: Like the other pairs a quiet start to the day with the market drifting a little through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 1.2110 area before slowly rising through to the 1.2130 level before ebbing a little for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
EUR/GBP:
Banning of shellfish from UK because its from dirty water sets off another row
EU seeks to delay application of post-Brexit trade deal – AFP
AUD/CNY:
Australia has a great chance to engage in trade diplomacy with China and it must take it – SMP
WHO/CNY:
Virus most likely spread from animal, not lab leak – SMP
USD:
$15 Minimum wage would cut employment, reduce poverty, CBO study finds – DJ
Johnson and Johnson CEO says people may need annual Covid vaccine shots for the next several years – CNBC
NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr Says many Covid-related economic risks remain – BBG
Orr: Leverage rules head off growing Financial stability Risks – BBG
GBP:
UK Vaccine drive shows Pfizer shot gives two-thirds protection – BBG
JPY:
BoJ Policymaker highlights cost of huge asset buying signals tweak in March review RTRs
Today’s Data
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A 1.9% | P -4.5%
CNY CPI MoM (JAN) A 1.0% | C 1.0% | P 0.7%
CNY CPI YoY (JAN) A -0.3% | C -0.1% | P 0.2%
CNY PPI YoY (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P -0.4%
0700 EUR German CPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.8% | P 0.5%
GBP NIESR GDP Estimate A | P 1.5%
1300 EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
1300 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
1330 USD Core CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 1.5% | P 1.6%
1330 USD Core CPI MoM (JAN A | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
1330 USD CPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.3% | P 0.4%
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C 0.985m | P -0.994m
1630 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
1700 GBP Gov. Bailey Speaks
1730 USD US Federal Budget A | P -430.0
1900 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
1900 USD Fed Budget Balance (JAN) A | C -150.0b | P -144.0b
2145 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | P 19.2%
2330 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment A | P -4.5%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Light trading pre-Tokyo saw the market start to break higher through to the 1.3760 level pausing for a short period before breaking through to teat to the 1.3780 area for a long ranging run through into the London session, the move through London saw no difference in the median but with an extended movement through into the NYK session before starting to rise steadily through to the 1.3800 level with a small move through to the 1.3810 area and a slow rise to finish the high of the day around the 1.3820 level.
- JPY: Quiet move through into the Tokyo session saw the market start a slow drift from the 105.25 highs through to midsession testing the 104.85-80 area before breaking lower on the move into the London opening pushing through to test towards the 104.50 area before finding a base and ranging around the 104.60 level in a long run from early morning London to the close of the day.
- AUD: A steady rise through the early part of the Tokyo session as USD selling filtered through, pushing from just above the 77 cents level to test to the 0.7730 area and a slow range through into the London session before dipping back to the 0.7710 and finding a base for the day, the move through into the Tokyo session saw a long static period around the 0.7720 area before running through to make the 0.7740 level for the high into the close.
- EUR: Light USD selling seemed to be the name of the game through the day with the Euro holding quietly around the opening 1.2050 level through into the Tokyo session before slowly rising to the 1.2065 level then pushing quickly through to the 1.2075 area before pausing for a long period through into the London session, rising again after the London opening this time to push through to the 1.2115 area before pausing and drifting through to the NYK session and indeed continued through to London close before resuming its gradual climb to finish the day around the 1.2120 level for the close.
Premiership Results
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (JAN) A 7.1% | P 4.8%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (JAN) A 10 | P 4
NZD Inflation Expectations QoQ A 1.9% | P 1.6%
EUR German Trade Balance (DEC) A 16.1b | C 15.9b | P 16.4b | R 16.0b
USD JOLTs Job Openings (DEC) A 6.646m | C 6.5m | P 6.527m | R 6.572m
USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -3.500m | P -4.261m
Best Regards
Andy
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