Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.922 | EURUSD 1.21202 | AUDUSD 0.77605 | NZDUSD 0.72192 | USDCAD 1.26909 | USDCHF 0.89189 | GBPUSD 1.38539 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21402 | 1.21167
USDJPY 105.142 | 104.885
GBPUSD 1.39023 | 1.38486
USDCHF 0.89247 | 0.89062
AUDUSD 0.77876 | 0.77594
NZDUSD 0.72469 | 0.72105
USDCAD 1.26916 | 1.26628
EURCHF 1.08160 | 1.08086
EURGBP 0.87559 | 0.87259
EURJPY 127.531 | 127.226
For Today
- GBP: A steady rise from the opening just above the 1.3850 area saw the market moving through into the Tokyo session pressing through the 1.3870 level and continuing in steps through to the 1.3900 for the run through midsession and into the grey hours holding around the figure level, weak stops possible just above the highs however, congestion likely to continue through to the 1.4000 area with 2018 ranges playing out, a push through is likely to see option plays and strong resistance likely sentimental levels will be concentrated with congestion through to the 1.4100 levels, downside bids light through to the 1.3800 area with weak stops on a move through the level and very little support through to the 1.3700 area and stronger bids then start to appear.
- JPY: Opening a little higher around the 104.95 area and then ranging for the first hour holding in the area with the market testing to the 104.90 area and then running through to the 105.10 area and eventually pushing through to the 105.15 area before returning to the figure level and holding the 105.00-10 area through into the grey hours, strong bids are likely to appear on any test of the 103.50 area and continuing through to the 103.00 level, Topside offers light through the 105.00 level and increasing into the 105.40-60 area however, strong resistance remains in the 105.80-106.00 level with congestion likely to continue through the 106.70-107.00 areas.
- AUD: As with the USDJPY a slow rise from the opening 0.7760 level and forming the base for the early part of the session, the move into the Tokyo session slowly rising through to the high 0.7780’s and not quiet able to push through the 0.7790 level for the move into the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7800 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
- EUR: Opening just above the 1.2124 area before drifting through to the 1.2116 level filling the small gap and slowly trading through to the grey hours pushing the 1.2140 area as USD sellers moved through the Asian session, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
LME:
Copper hits highest level amid concerns over supplies – BBG
EUR:
Catalan separatists on for majority in regional vote, poll shows – BBG
AUD:
ABC.net: Why Australia’s property prices will continue to soar – NS6
USD:
US Stock market cap is now double GDP – TWT
CNY:
China’s overseas investment is falling just when the global economy needs it most – SMP
NZD:
Auckland goes into snap lockdown – BBG
Today’s Data
JPY GDP QoQ (Q4) A 3.0% | C 2.3% | P 5.3%
JPY GDP YoY (Q4) A 12.7% | C 9.5% | P 22.9%
Holiday USD Presidents Day
Holiday CAD Family Day
Holiday CNY Spring Festival
JPY Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A -1.0% | P -1.6%
1000 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1000 EUR Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A | C -1.0% | P 2.5%
1000 EUR Trade Balance (DEC) A | C 25.3b | P 25.8b
1330 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (DEC) A | C 0.6% | P -0.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow drift through the session in Asia opening around the 1.3815 area and slowly drifting through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.3790 areas before ranging through to the grey hours holding the level, London were slow sellers through to penetrate the 1.3780 area before slowly ranging through to the NYK session around the 1.3790 area and pushing through to the 1.3810 and then quickly push through to the 1.3850 area and after a brief pause push again and steady rise to test the 1.3870 levels before holding just above the 1.3860 level to the close.
- JPY: Rising from its lows the USDJPY rose only through to just above the 104.80 area from the 104.75 area through too late in the Tokyo session before extending towards the 104.90 areas, the move into the grey hours saw a sharp move through to the 105.18 area before dropping back for the move into the London session to range around the 105.00 to the end of London and then a dip through to the 104.95 area for the run to the close.
- AUD: Weakness through the Asian session with minor spike above the 0.7760 level to set the early highs, a slow move through into the Tokyo session saw the market slowly selling through initially to the 0.7735 area, a slow rise into the grey hours then saw the market dropping back for the London opening testing the 0.7720 areas and then ranging around the level through to the NYK session, an hour into the NYK session saw the market rally steadily through to above the 0.7760 level for the high of the day before drifting a little for the close.
- EUR: A slow drift through into the midsession Tokyo from the 1.2130 level saw the market holding the 0.7120 area and recovering to the opening levels for the move into the Tokyo session, London opening saw the market drop back to the 1.2100 and a slow range around the 1.2105-10 area through into the NYK session before dipping through the low and extending to the 1.2080 area before finding support and a slow move higher through to the 1.2130 and a slow drift to the close around the 1.2120 level
Premiership Results
NZD Business NZ PMI (JAN) A 57.5 | P 48.7
Holiday China – Spring Festival
GBP Business Investments QoQ (Q4) A 1.3% | P 9.4% | R 14.5%
GBP GDP YoY (Q4) A -7.8% | C -8.1% | P -8.6% | R -8.7%
GBP GDP QoQ (Q4) A 1.0% | C 0.5% | P 16.0% | R 16.1%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.5% | P -0.1% | R 0.3%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.6% | P 0.7% | R 1.1%
GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A 1.0% | P 4.1%
GBP Trade Balance (DEC) A -14.32b | C -15.00b | P -16.01b | R -14.79b
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (DEC) A -5.20b | P -8.01b
CHF CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.1% | P -0.1%
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (JAN) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.6% | R -0.5%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (JAN) A 0.4% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (DEC) A -1.3% | C -1.5% | P 0.7%
GBP NIESR GDP Monthly GDP Tracker A -2.5% | P 0.9% | R 1.0%
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (FEB) A 69.8 | C 75.7 | P 74.0
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A 76.2 | C 80.8 | P 79.0
USD Baker Hughes Total Oil Rig Count A 306 | P 384 | R 299
Best Regards
Andy
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