Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.255 | EURUSD 1.21897 | AUDUSD 0.77559 | NZDUSD 0.72343 | USDCAD 1.2082| USDCHF 0.89752 | GBPUSD 1.41767 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.21941 | 1.21776

USDJPY                109.442 | 109.20

GBPUSD              1.41889 | 1.41558

USDCHF              0.89806 | 0.89739

AUDUSD              0.77636 | 0.77426

NZDUSD              0.72325 | 0.72149

USDCAD              1.20903 | 1.2078

EURCHF               1.09436 | 1.0935

EURGBP              0.86029 | 0.85906

EURJPY                133.352 | 133.106

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Early high into the Tokyo fix for a test to the 1.4185 area before slowly drifting through the session through to the 1.4155 for the move into the grey hour in light trading, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 area with some congestion increasing on any move to the 1.4300 and stronger offers in the area, a break above the 1.4310 area will likely see weak stops and breakout stops coinciding and the topside open to a quick squeeze through the 1.4350 level and an attempt on the possibly weak 1.4400 area and stronger stops again through the level. Downside bids likely to increase on a move through to the 1.4100 with a couple of weeks of congestion building up in the area with weak stops on a break through the 1.4090-80 area and opening to the 1.4000 level with very little support other than limited sentimental bids, however, the move through will then start to see stronger bids into the 1.3950-1.3900 area limiting any further loses.
  • JPY: Opening quietly and light cross selling saw the USDJPY testing through the 109.20 level again before moving steadily through to the 109.45 area and then holding quietly through to the grey hour trading in a tight range around the 109.40 level. Downside light through the 109.20-00 with increasing bids into the 108.50 this opens the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
  • AUD: A slow drift with cross selling once the Tokyo fix was over and the oz dipping from the 0.7765 area back through the 0.7755 opening levels and testing through to 0.7745 area for the move into the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79-cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7700 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7680 area however, stronger bids then start to show through into the 0.7650 and ultimately the 0.7600 area and likely to continue in that fashion through to the 0.7550 area.
  • EUR: Same story for the Euro with light cross/JPY selling dominating the market and the Euro falling away from the 1.2190 highs through to test below the 1.2180 before holding for the move into the grey hour in light trading, Topside offers congested through to  the 1.2220 area before weak stops appear and the market opens for a renewed push to the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

US report concluded Covid19 may have leaked from Wuhan Lab – DJ
AUD:

Australia enter new growth period as business conditions surge – BBG

WestPac hikes two- and three-year fixed rates – AFR

 

Today’s Data

GBP        BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MAY) A 18.5% | P 39.6%

JPY         Adjusted Current Account A 1.55t | P 1.70t

JPY         Current Account n.s.a. (APR) A 1.322t | C 1.50t | P 2.65t

JPY         GDP YoY (Q1) A -3.9% | C -4.8% | P 11.7%

JPY         GDP QoQ (Q1) A -1.0% | C -1.2% | P 2.8%

AUD       NAB Business Confidence (MAY) A 20 | P 26 | R 17

0700      EUR       German Industrial Production MoM (APR) A | C 0.5% | P 2.5%

1000      EUR       German ZEW Current Conditions (JUN) A | C -27.8 | P -40.1

1000      EUR       German ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUN) A | C 86.0 | P 84.4

1000      EUR       GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -0.6% | P -0.6%

1000      EUR       GDP YoY (Q1) A | C 1.8% | P -1.8%

1000      EUR       ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUN) A | P 84.0

1330      USD       Exports A | P 200.03b

1330      USD       Imports A | P 274.48b

1330      USD       Trade Balance (APR) A | C -69.0b | P -74.4b

1330      CAD       Trade Balance (APR) A | C -0.70b | P -1.14b

1400      GBP        BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks

1500      USD       Jolts Job Openings (APR) A | C 8.30m | P 8.123m

2130      USD       API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -5.360m

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening around the Friday close 1.4160 area to lightly push into the 1.4170 level for the Tokyo session before sliding off through into mid-Tokyo to hold the 1.4140 area for the grey hour, early selling into the London session saw the market lifting of the 1.4110 low of the day to steadily move through to the 1.4150 level and then pushing smartly through to the opening level for the move into the NYK session and a steady rise through to the 1.4185 level, a minimum sell off saw the market extend the high for the day to just above the 1.4190 area before sliding to a close just off the highs.
  • JPY: A very limited range throughout the day with the market pushing into the Tokyo session to make the high just short of the 109.65 level before holding above the 109.50 area through until late in the session before selling appeared just before Tokyo lunch to test the 109.40 area for the move into the grey hour, some light buying through the grey hour and into the London opening saw the market pushing again towards the 109.60 area before London entered as light sellers through to the NYK session to push the market to the 109.25 and following through to the 109.20 level for the low of the day and then a long run to the close holding in a tight range around the 109.25 level.
  • AUD: Quiet throughout the Asian session saw the market opening unchanged around the 0.7740 level and making the early high towards the 0.7750 area before dipping away through to the 0.7730 area to hold quietly into the London session with the opening seeing the low of the day just above the 0.7725 area and a slow recovery through into the NYK session testing the 0.7765 level for the high and a slow run to the close ranging quietly to finish in the 0.7755 level.
  • EUR: Asian trading saw the market opening a little lower than Friday and holding the 1.2160 area for the move into the Tokyo session where light buying pushed through the 1.2170 level for the high of the session in Asia, the move through midsession saw a test of the opening levels again and after ranging through into the Tokyo Lunch period dipped through into pre-London making the low around the 1.2145 level with London opening buying saw  the market holding around the 1.2160 area through to the NYK session in quiet trading, NYK were slow buyers through to test just above the 1.2200 level before being forced to just below and then struggling through to the close holding just above the 1.2190 level.

 

Premier Results

NZD Holiday Queens Birthday

CNY       Trade Balance (USD) (MAY) A 45.53b | C 50.50b | P 42.86b

CNY       Exports YoY (MAY) A 27.9 | C 32.1% | P 32.3%

CNY       Imports YoY (MAY) A 51.1% | C 51.5% | P 43.1%

CHF        Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (MAY) A 3.1% | P 3.3%

CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY) A 3.0% | P 3.1% | R 3.2%

EUR       German Factory Orders MoM (APR) A -0.2% | C 1.0% | P 3.0% | R 3.9%

CHF        CPI MoM (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

GBP        Halifax House Price Index YoY A 9.5% | P 8.2%

GBP        Halifax House Price Index MoM (MAY) A 1.3% | C 1.2% | P 1.4% | R 1.5%

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.