Total notional volume from last Monday to Friday came in at $1.1 billion, 35% lower than the previous week.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $507 million, 50% lower than the previous week. Ether volume came in at $225 million, 17% lower than the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $6.1 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,305 and average position size for ether at $1,905.

Volatility is tracking at multi-month lows and remains exceptionally subdued. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,948 and $76 respectively.

The crypto market continues to trade in a state of cautious consolidation after the latest recovery wave, with investors still debating whether price action reflects a pause ahead of another downside extension or the base for the first major rally of 2026.

Our bias continues to favor the latter view, particularly as broader sentiment stabilizes and technical conditions argue for the formation of a meaningful medium-term floor after what has been an extended period of depressed valuations across digital assets.

Bitcoin remains the primary macro proxy for the asset class and continues to show relative resilience after its recent breakout beyond the $76k area. Price action has moderated in recent sessions, though importantly without any meaningful deterioration in broader market structure.

Institutional participation remains constructive, particularly as crypto continues to benefit from improving global risk appetite tied to easing geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, softer oil prices, and renewed demand for higher beta assets across global markets.

That said, we continue to believe the more important signal for the crypto market sits with Ethereum rather than bitcoin at this stage of the cycle. ETH has notably lagged BTC throughout much of 2026 and has thus far been unable to establish a convincing breakout despite bitcoin’s strength.

As a result, the key level for the market remains ETH $2,400. A sustained break above there would send an important message that participation is broadening beyond bitcoin and that risk appetite is returning more meaningfully across the digital asset space.

On a shorter-term basis, the immediate level to watch comes in around ETH $2,160, representing last Thursday’s high. A move back above that level would help strengthen the bullish technical case and materially improve the probability of a renewed push toward the critical $2,400 threshold.

Failure to reclaim that resistance, however, would reinforce concerns that the market remains trapped in a broader consolidation range despite improving macro conditions.

From the macro side, crypto continues to take direction from traditional markets, particularly US equities, real yields and dollar dynamics. The latest softening in the dollar alongside improving global sentiment has offered near-term support, while expectations around Fed policy remain central for broader positioning.

With liquidity conditions thin owing to US and UK holidays, near-term moves may prove exaggerated, though the broader backdrop appears increasingly supportive for a recovery phase should Ethereum begin to confirm bitcoin’s recent strength.