LMAX Digital volumes were light to start the week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $186 million, 32% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $90 million, 50% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $48 million, 11% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,852 and average position size for ether at $1,868.

Volatility remains subdued and continues to track at multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,891 and $71 respectively.

The crypto market has entered a period of consolidation after a strong recovery off the recent lows, with bitcoin and ETH both pausing as investors assess whether the latest pullback is simply a healthy retracement or the start of a deeper move back toward the year’s lows.

For now, price action remains constructive, but conviction is likely to come from the next decisive breakout rather than continued range-bound trading.

The focus in the near term is whether buyers can regain control and build on the recovery that has developed over recent weeks. While some caution is understandable after the recent advance, the broader tone remains one of waiting for confirmation rather than abandoning the recovery narrative altogether.

From a technical perspective, the key near-term levels to watch are $64,700 for bitcoin and $1,850 for ETH. A sustained break and daily close above these levels would reinforce the view that the market has established its next major cycle low, encouraging fresh inflows and strengthening bullish momentum.

Failure to overcome these resistance levels would leave the market vulnerable to additional consolidation or even another test of the yearly lows. As a result, these price points are likely to act as an important gauge of investor conviction over the coming sessions.

On the fundamental side, the regulatory backdrop continues to improve. Momentum behind the Clarity Act remains an encouraging development, with further legislative progress likely to reinforce the longer-term institutional investment case for digital assets. Continued progress would represent another important step toward reducing uncertainty and supporting broader adoption across the sector.

The immediate focus, however, shifts back to the macro landscape. Today’s US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony have the potential to drive volatility well beyond traditional markets. Crypto has shown increasing signs of standing on its own fundamentals over the longer term, but it remains highly sensitive to major macro catalysts in the short run.

A softer inflation print, combined with no fresh hawkish surprises from the Fed Chair, would likely support risk appetite, ease pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields, and provide a constructive backdrop for bitcoin, ETH and the broader crypto market.

On the other hand, another upside inflation surprise or a more hawkish policy message could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, boosting the dollar and weighing on digital assets.

Adding another layer of uncertainty is the ongoing geopolitical backdrop. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices sharply higher and reintroduced inflation concerns into financial markets, creating another source of volatility that crypto investors will need to monitor closely alongside today’s macro events.

Looking beyond the near-term headlines, the broader investment case for digital assets continues to strengthen as institutional participation expands, regulatory clarity gradually improves and blockchain networks continue to mature. These longer-term themes remain intact despite periods of heightened volatility.