LMAX Group digital asset volumes held up well on Tuesday. Total volume came in at $1.1 billion.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $959 million. Ether volume came in at $27 million.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,742 and average position size for ether at $2,600.

Volatility has been in contraction mode since rebounding sharply from its August low. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,866 and $82 respectively.

The crypto market heads into Wednesday’s Fed decision at a potentially important inflection point, with Bitcoin and ETH showing encouraging signs of stabilization following an extended period of corrective price action.

Attention is now firmly on the central bank event risk, with the broader direction of the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and risk appetite likely to dictate the next meaningful move.

Our view remains that the bar for a hawkish Fed surprise is increasingly high, with markets having already absorbed a considerable amount of policy uncertainty.

This leaves the balance of risk favoring post-event Dollar profit-taking, a moderation in yields, and renewed demand for risk assets. Such a reaction would be particularly supportive of crypto, where sentiment has remained fragile despite an underlying technical structure that continues to look constructive.

Tuesday’s price action offered an early indication that the market may already be preparing for a shift in momentum. Both Bitcoin and ETH produced encouraging bullish daily reversals following several sessions of grinding weakness.

While confirmation is still needed, these developments strengthen the case for a more meaningful recovery taking shape, with selling pressure potentially beginning to exhaust itself.

Stepping back, the weakness since the September highs has undoubtedly tested investor conviction, but we continue to view this as a corrective phase within a broader recovery rather than the beginning of another sustained downturn.

The rebound from the yearly lows remains the more important development, with the latest pullback potentially establishing the next higher low in an increasingly constructive longer-term technical formation.

Beyond the immediate Fed decision, the interaction between global liquidity expectations, equity market resilience, and geopolitical uncertainty will remain central to the outlook.

Provided the macro backdrop avoids a fresh deterioration, we believe conditions are increasingly favorable for Bitcoin to resume its broader recovery, with ETH positioned to participate in a renewed expansion of risk appetite.

Ultimately, our core outlook continues to favor a much larger advance, initially back toward the late-2025 record highs and eventually through those levels as the next major leg of the cycle develops.