Bad news is still good news

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September. The latest weekly close back above the September high at 1.1739 strengthens this prospect. Any setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 1.1100. Next key resistance comes in at 1.2668.

• R2 1.2447– 14 December high – Strong
• R1 1.2243 – 19 December high – Medium
• S1 1.1958 – 4 January low – Medium
• S2 1.1900 – 30 November low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound has outperformed in recent sessions despite worrying UK housing data. UK mortgage approvals missed big at 46.1k versus 53k expected, the largest ex-pandemic decline since the GFC. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar include German trade, Eurozone and German construction PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, US ADP employment, trade, initial jobless claims, Fed speak, and Canada trade.

USDJPY – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from severe overbought readings. Look for additional corrective price action back down towards the 126.00 area before the market considers the possibility of uptrend resumption. Rallies should now be well capped ahead of 140.00.

• R2 138.18 – 15 December high – Strong
• R1 134.51 – 14 December low – Medium
• S1 129.51 – 3 January low – Medium
• S2 128.62 – 4 May low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen was sold aggressively in recent sessions on the back of the BOJ's fourth day of unscheduled JGB buying. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar include German trade, Eurozone and German construction PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, US ADP employment, trade, initial jobless claims, Fed speak, and Canada trade.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base following the recent surge back above 0.6500. The recent weekly close back above previous support now turned resistance at 0.6682 strengthens the outlook for a bullish structural shift.

• R1 0.6917 – 13 September high – Strong
• R2 0.6894 – 13 December high – Medium
• S1 0.6700 – Figure – Medium
• S2 0.6630 – 20 December low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

A run higher in metals prices has been behind a lot of this latest push in the Australian Dollar. Also helping the Australian Dollar is the news that Chinese officials are discussing plans to resume some imports of Australian coal after a two years plus ban. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar include German trade, Eurozone and German construction PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, US ADP employment, trade, initial jobless claims, Fed speak, and Canada trade.

USDCAD – technical overview

A recent surge back above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3809 – 3 November high – Medium
• R1 1.3706 – 16 December high – Medium
• S1 1.3470 – 5 January low – Medium
• S2 1.3385 – 5 December low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Wednesday's rally in the Canadian Dollar was somewhat perplexing when considering the heavy round of downside pressure in the price of oil. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar include German trade, Eurozone and German construction PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, US ADP employment, trade, initial jobless claims, Fed speak, and Canada trade.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with risk for the current recovery rally to stall out and form a lower top for the next major downside extension. A break back above 0.6577 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 0.6577 – 3 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6514 – 13 December high – Medium
• S1 0.6200– 3 January low – Medium
• S2 0.6156 – 28 November low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar traded up on Wednesday, getting a boost from the run higher in currencies. However, the Kiwi rate has underperformed on the back of a sharp decline in housing data and fresh doubts about just how much the RBNZ will need to shift less hawkish. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar include German trade, Eurozone and German construction PMI reads, UK PMI reads, Eurozone producer prices, US ADP employment, trade, initial jobless claims, Fed speak, and Canada trade.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from extended readings off record highs. Look for rallies to be well capped in favor of lower tops and lower lows. A monthly close back above 4300 will be required at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Next major support comes in at 3492.

• R2 4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 3907 – 16 December high – Medium
• S1 3763 – 22 December low – Medium
• S2 3699 – 3 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

We've finally reached a point in the cycle where the Fed recognizes unanchored inflation expectations pose a greater downside risk than over-tightening. This is significant, as it means less investor friendly monetary policy that risks potential recession in the months ahead. Overall, we expect inflation to continue to be a problem in H1 2023 that results in downside pressure into rallies.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600 on a monthly close basis ahead of the next major upside extension. The recent break back above 1808 strengthens the bullish outlook.

• R2 1880 – 13 June high – Strong
• R1 1866 – 4 January high – Medium
• S1 1774 – 15 December low – Medium
• S2 1719 – 23 November low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.