Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 103.138 | EURUSD 1.2252 | AUDUSD 0.76662 | NZDUSD 0.7164 | USDCAD 1.27766 | USDCHF 0.88118 | GBPUSD 1.35712 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.22767 | 1.22387

USDJPY                103.191 | 102.937

GBPUSD              1.35998 | 1.35621

USDCHF              0.88159 | 0.88002

AUDUSD              0.77094 | 0.76611

NZDUSD              0.72182 | 0.71697

USDCAD              1.27907 | 1.27403

EURCHF               1.08060 | 1.07897

EURGBP              0.90333 | 0.90213

EURJPY                126.544 | 126.290

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A slow rise through towards the 1.3600 level from the opening around the 1.3570 area having dipped only slightly through that level for the lows. Weak offers likely through the 1.3600 level and increasing on slightly into the 1.3650 area before stronger offers start appearing the closer the market moves to the 1.3700 area, with barely a stop loss to be seen through to those levels, a break through the 1.3715-25 area will likely gain quickly to the 1.3750 areas before starting to grind for the 1.3800 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.3550 area again with bids in the area and likely to increase through to the 1.3500 area with weak stops likely immediately behind the level and opening a deeper move.
    • JPY: Ranging around the 103.15 area through deep into the Tokyo session testing the 103.20 level early in the session before holding through to midsession before dropping slowly off for the move into the grey hours probing towards the 102.90 area. bids into the 102.80 before very light weak stops appear however, bids through the 102.50 area likely to be substantial and continue appearing around the sentimental 00-20 and 80-00. Topside offers light through to the 103.40 level with some light congestion from there with offers increasing into the 103.80 level and continuing through the 104.00 area with weak stops above the 104.20 levels.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7670 area and holding the 0.7660 area through into the Tokyo session before starting a slow rise through to the 0.7710 level before ranging around the 77 cents area through into the grey hours, Topside stops light through the 0.7720 level and stronger levels around the 0.7750 area likely to cause the market to slow, a push towards the 0.7780 level is likely to see option barriers appearing for any attempt at the 78 cents area and then congestion then quickly appearing through any break higher, downside bids into the 76 cents level with weak stops on a dip through the 0.7580-70 area to open the downside to the stronger 75 cents area.
  • EUR: A slow move through into the Tokyo session holding around the opening around the 1.2250 area only for Tokyo to slowly push higher through to just above the 1.2275 area for the highs of the day and a slow drift through to range around the 1.2260 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers likely to continue on any move through the 1.2300 level with weak stops on a push through the 1.2320 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2340 level with a long term trend line in play, downside bids light through to the 1.2200 area with limited bids in the sentimental areas before opening up only on a dip through the 1.2150 area but unlikely today.

 

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

Fed’s Bostic says Bond tapering possible this year – RTRs

Fed’s Mester, Economy still beset by high uncertainty – DJ

NYSE says no longer plans to delist China Telco – BBG

IRR/USD:

As Trumps Presidency comes to an end Iran increases Uranium enrichment to 20% – AP

Iran captures S. Korean tanker – AP

GBP:

Honda idling UK plant for 2 days due to global supply issues – BBG

GBP/CNY:

FTSE Russell to drop three more Chinese Companies – MTN

CNY:

PBoC’s fixing message is in the Jump – BBG

AUD:

Inflation unlikely to challenge RBA target anytime soon – AFR

 

Today’s Data     

0700      EUR       German Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A | C -2.0% | P 2.6%

0730      CHF        CPI MoM (DEC) A | C -0.1% | P -0.2%

0800      EUR       Spanish Unemployment Change A | P 25.3k

0855      EUR       German Unemployment Change (DEC) A | C 10k | P 39k

0855      EUR       German Unemployment Rate (DEC) A | C 6.1% | P 6.1%

1330      CAD       RMPI MoM (NOV) A | P 0.5%

1500      USD       ISM Manufacturing Employment (DEC) A | P 48.4

1500      USD       ISM Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A | C 58.6 | P 57.5

2045      USD       FOMC Member Williams Speaks

2130      USD       API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks A | P -4.785m

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady rise from a weaker start to the new year pushing through the 1.3680 level before dipping a little and slowly recovering and pushing through to the 1.3700 level holding quietly through to the London session having initially failed pushing again into the London opening again testing lightly through and continuing to the end of the London morning, news that England is going into another Lockdown for 6 weeks saw the market steadily drop back through to the London close testing through the 1.3550 area holding around the 1.3545 area for the lows holding around the 1.3570 level for the close.
  • JPY: Filling the small gap on the charts after a weaker start lifting from the 103.20 area and pushing through into the Tokyo session moving lightly through the 103.30 level for the high of the day before starting a slow steady drift through to the 102.90 area for the move into the London opening, London continued the move through to the 102.70 area before moving into a tight channelled recovery through to the 103.30 area again peaking a little higher before ranging quietly around the 103.20-30 area through to the close.
  • AUD: Bouncing around the 77 cents level through into the grey hours after opening at the level, early low was just above the 0.7690 area and then moving off that low through to post just above the 0.7720 area before drifting off for the move into the grey hours, the move through to the London opening saw the market pressing through to the 0.7730 area and eventually grinding to the highs just above the 0.7740 area before falling back in early London as USD buyers moved through the market steadily selling the AUD through to the London close to press through to just above the 0.7640 area and a slight recovery through to the 0.7670 close.
  • EUR: Stronger opening saw the market not looking back as it moved through to the Tokyo session lifting from the opening around the 1.2230 level and pushing through to range around the 1.2250 level with a couple of pushes through to the 1.2260 area before moving into the grey hours and early Eastern Europeans bought through to the 1.2300 level into early morning in London, the move through NYK to the London close saw the market back to the 1.2240 level and ranging around the 1.2250 area to the close.

 

Premiership Results

NZD       Holday

CNY       Caixin Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 53.0 | C 54.8 | P 54.9

0815      EUR       Spanish Manufacturing PMI A 51.0 | C 52.8 | P 49.8

0830      CHF        Procure ch PMI (DEC) A 58.0 | C 54.0 | P 55.2

0855      EUR       German Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 58.3 | C 58.6 | P 58.6

0900      EUR       Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 55.2 | C 55.5 | P 55.5

0930      GBP        Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 57.5 | C 57.3 | P 57.3

1000      USD       OPEC Meeting

1445      USD       Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 57.1 | P 56.5

1500      USD       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.