Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.536 | EURUSD 1.21055 | AUDUSD 0.77451 | NZDUSD 0.71591 | USDCAD 1.26337 | USDCHF 0.88968 | GBPUSD 1.36561 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21339 | 1.21018
USDJPY 103.667 | 103.333
GBPUSD 1.36874 | 1.36512
USDCHF 0.89033 | 0.88856
AUDUSD 0.77766 | 0.77449
NZDUSD 0.72112 | 0.71699
USDCAD 1.26361 | 1.26127
EURCHF 1.07810 | 1.07733
EURGBP 0.88694 | 0.88613
EURJPY 125.628 | 125.393
For Today
- GBP: A steady rise from the opening lows around the 1.3655 area to push through into the Tokyo session edging into the 1.3675 area, a brief dip saw the market rising for the second time and testing to the 1.3680 area with the market then running tightly around the 1.3685-80 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3700 area and weak stops likely through the level and stronger stops possibly above the 1.3750 area for a quick test to the 1.3800 area and limited congestion running through to the next sentimental area. Downside bids into the 1.3550 area likely to again be strong with interest likely to be holding around the 1.3500 area for the same sort of support, a break below the level is likely to see weak stops opening the downside bids likely through to the 1.3450 sentimental level and a weak supportive area with congestion then running to the 1.3400 level.
- JPY: Holding quietly through the early part of the session then moving steadily through to the 103.70 area for the Tokyo fix before slipping back and dipping through the opening level 103.55 and holding briefly through to midsession before dropping steadily again and this time through to the 103.35 level for the move into the grey hours, Light offers through the 104.00 area and increasing a little through to the 104.20 area, weak stops on the move level and light congestion running through to the 104.50 area and increasing offers then through to the 104.80-105.00 level and stronger offers. Downside bids through to the 103.00 area, a push through the level will likely see bids continuing until a break of the 102.80 area and then a similar pattern through on the 102 handle with 102.50 then providing support.
- AUD: Initial run higher from the opening lows around the 0.7740 area testing a little above the 0.7760 easing a little into the 0.7750 area before the full Tokyo session moves in to push through to the 0.7770 area ranging around the level through to the grey hours not quiet able to make the 0.7780 areas. , light bids through to the 0.7660 area where support stiffens and the bids continue with only a little weakness to the 0.7620 area with strong stops on any dip through the 0.7580 area before stronger bids again appear in the 0.7550 area. Topside offers through the 0.7750 level and then thickening as the market tests towards the 0.7780 area with weak stops on a move through the 0.7820 areas, stops may cause some problems however, congestion is likely through the 0.7850 area and increase again through the 0.7900 areas.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2105 area and rose slowly through to the 1.2120 area for the move into Tokyo before slipping a little through to the 1.2110 level before rallying quickly to test the 1.2130 and ranging around the area through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
USD:
Keystone XL permit revoked by US Pres. Biden – CBC
Spokesman for Pres. Biden: China’s decision to sanction former Trump administration officials is unproductive and cynical – Tradethenews
Biden to roll back Trump policies, remake US role in climate crisis – AFP
JPY:
BoJ Maintains policy framework of QQE with Yield Control with target around 0.0%
BoJ maintains annual ETF purchases at 12t Yen, maintains JREIT purchases
BoJ: Decided to extend its funding program by one year
BoJ sees extremely high uncertainty over virus impact on economy
GBP:
BoE’s Bailey expects pronounced recovery for economy – RTR’s
AUD:
RBA won’t change course under low visibility
EUR/TWD:
The EU Parliament on Wednesday passed two resolutions bearing content support for Taiwan’s democracy – FBK
Today’s Data
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A 0.48t | P 0.57t | R 0.55t
JPY Exports YoY (DEC) A 2.0% | C 2.4% | P -4.2%
JPY Trade Balance (DEC) A 751.0b | C 942.8b | P 366.1b
AUD Employment Change (DEC) A 50.0k | C 50.0k | P 90.0k
AUD Full Employment Change (DEC) A 35.7k | P 84.2k
AUD Unemployment rate (DEC) A 6.6% | C 6.7% | P 6.8%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BoJ Outlook Report YoY
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
0930 GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
1100 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (JAN) A | C -35 | P -25
1245 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JAN) A | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1245 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (JAN)
1330 USD Building Permits (DEC) A | C 1.604m | P 1.635m
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (DEC) A | P 5.9%
1330 USD Housing Starts MoM (DEC) A | P 1.2%
1330 USD Housing Starts (DEC) A | C 1.560m | P 1.547m
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 910k | P 965k
1330 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (JAN) A | C 12.0 | P 9.1
1330 USD Philly Fed employment (JAN) A | P 5.6
1330 CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (DEC) A | P 0.6%
1330 ECB Press Conference
2130 NZD Business NZ PMI (DEC) A | P 55.3
2145 NZD CPI YoY (Q4) A | C 1.0% | P 1.4%
2145 NZD CPI QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.1% | P 0.7%
2330 JPY National Core CPI YoY (DEC) A | C -1.1% | P -0.9%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3635 area the Asian session struggled through the 1.3650 level into midsession in Tokyo and held quietly for a couple hours before starting a slow climb through to the 1.3665 area and then early London stepped in pushing quickly to the 1.3700 area, the market repeatedly tried to push the level for a couple of hours before breaking through triggering some weak stops before dipping back through 1.3700 area and continued in a steady manner through to the 1.3680 level and holding through to the NYK opening, early US sellers saw the market dipping through to set the lows around the 1.3625 area, recovering slightly the market held around the 1.3645 area through to the close.
- JPY: Quiet early part of the session dipping from the opening highs just short of the 103.95 area and moving through into the Tokyo session dropping through to range around the 103.75 area deep into the London morning, while London bought a little the range only improved to the 103.80 area, NYK sold from the opening fairly aggressively testing quickly through the 103.50 area and then ranging between 103.50-60 to the close.
- AUD: Pushing through he early part of the session quietly before moving into the Tokyo session running from the lows to test above the 0.7715 area before ranging around the 0.7710 area through the early part of the session before starting a slow struggle through to the 0.7720 area, the move through to the grey hours saw a third wave of buying and the market grinding through into the London session pushing the 0.7740 area before drifting through to the NYK session testing back to the 0.7720 level before quickly popping through to the 0.7760 area holding briefly before dropping back to the 0.7740 area and a slow rise through to the close.
- EUR: Early buying from the lows of the day around the 1.2125 area to push through to the 1.2140 on the move into the Tokyo session, short period of ranging around the level before forcing through to the 1.2150 area and then a slow drift through to the grey hours, a push through to just short of the 1.2160 level before dropping quickly through the 1.2140 area and continue descending through to the 1.2120 area before slowing for the move into the NYK session and quickly disappearing for a dip to the 1.2080 areas bouncing back and ranging between the 1.2100-10 level to the close.
Premiership Results
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (JAN) A -4.5% | P 4.1%
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
GBP CPI MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P -0.1%
GBP CPI YoY (DEC) A 0.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.3%
GBP CPI PPI Input MoM (DEC) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.2% | R 0.4%
EUR German PPI MoM (DEC) A 0.8% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
EUR Core CPI YoY (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
EUR CPI MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P -0.3%
EUR CPI YoY (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.3% | P -0.3%
CAD Core CPI YoY (DEC) A 1.5% | P 1.5%
CAD Core CPI MoM (DEC) A -0.4% | P 0.2%
CAD CPI MoM (DEC) A -0.2% | P 0.1%
CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BoC Rate Statement
CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
CAD BoC Press Conference
GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 2.562m | P -5.821m
Best Regards
Andy
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