Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.258 | EURUSD 1.21219 | AUDUSD 0.76779 | NZDUSD 0.7181 | USDCAD 1.28306 | USDCHF 0.8886 | GBPUSD 1.37228 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21296 | 1.20944
USDJPY 104.571 | 104.209
GBPUSD 1.37342 | 1.36963
USDCHF 0.88997 | 0.88793
AUDUSD 0.76867 | 0.76367
NZDUSD 0.71889 | 0.71519
USDCAD 1.28748 | 1.28168
EURCHF 1.07734 | 1.07624
EURGBP 0.88372 | 0.88257
EURJPY 126.609 | 126.344
For Today
- GBP: Opening quietly and making early high around the 1.3730 area before dipping slowly through to the 1.3710 area, light recovery before sliding through to test lightly through the 1.3700 area to range around the level through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3750 area with weak stops covered by stronger offers the closer the market pushes towards the 1.3800 area, weak stops through the level on a move through and likely to continue only a short distance before weakness appears and the topside opens up through to the 1.40 handle with sentimental offers limited. Downside bids through the 1.3650 level and increasing into the 1.3600 area and stops losses through the level run through to the 1.3550 area and strong bids start to appear and continue to increase into the 1.3500 level.
- JPY: Quiet trading into the Tokyo session where buying for the Tokyo fix saw the market moving off the 104.20 area to push through to the 104.55 levels before ranging around the 104.50 area through to the grey hours and once that fix was fulfilled a very quiet session, Topside offers through the 104.80 area increasing through to 105.00 level normal offers are likely to be thin with an old trend line in the area and weak stops are likely joined by break out players for a move through to the 105.50 area before congestion starts to appear. Downside bids light through the 104.00 level and weak stops limited, market likely to remain weak through to the 103.50 area where interest starts to increase with congestion around that level and stronger bids through to the 102.80 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7680 area and slowly drifting through the session to test just below the 0.7640 area before holding quietly through into the grey hours, Stronger bids likely just below the lows and through into the 0.7580 area before weak stops appear opening the market a little through to the 0.7550 area with stronger bids again and possibly continue through to the 0.7500 area. Topside offers light through the 77 cents level and likely to continue through to the 0.7750 with very little interference however beyond that level is likely to see stronger offers the closer the market gets to the 78 cents area and continuing through to the 0.7820 area before stops appear and open a higher move over the next couple of days.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2125 area and then moving into the Tokyo session drifting through to initially test the 1.2105 area and then through to hold just below the 1.2100 area to range quietly through the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
LME/AUD:
Tiny Iron ore mines start shipping as rally flashes warning – BBG
USD:
US should continue to view China as a threat – Congressional Panel – SMP
CNY:
Four of China’s biggest cities scramble to knock a real estate bull run off its pace amid fear of risk and bubbling debt – SMP
EUR/GBP:
Germany recommends against giving Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine to over 65s – SYH
GBP/HKD:
UK says upholding freedom and autonomy with new Hong Kong visas – AFP
USD:
US Biotech firm Novavax two shot Covid19 vaccine showed 89.3% efficacy in trials effective against UK variant where it was tested
USD/EUR:
Diplomacy chiefs discuss ways to repair ties, France welcomes active US multinational tax talks
INR/CNY:
China-India border dispute: Delhi Minister slams Beijing over troops and infrastructure – SMP
Today’s Data
JPY Jobs/Applications Ratio (DEC) A 1.06 | C 1.06 | P 1.06
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (JAN) A -0.4% | C -0.6% | P -0.9%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (JAN) A 0.2% | P -0.1%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A -1.6% | C -1.5% | P -0.5%
AUD PPI YoY (Q4) A | P -0.4%
AUD PPI QoQ (Q4) A | P 0.4%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (DEC) A | P 0.1%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 7.3%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P 0.8%
0800 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (JAN) A | C 102.0 | P 104.3
0800 CHF World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY A | P -0.5%
0800 EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C -1.5% | P 16.4%
0800 EUR Spanish HiCP YoY (JAN) A | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
0855 EUR German Unemployment Change (JAN) A | C 6k | P -37k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Rate (JAN) A | C 6.1% | P 6.1%
0900 EUR German GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -3.4% | P -3.9%
0900 EUR German GDP QoQ (Q4) A | P 8.5%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (DEC) A | C 1.3% | P 1.4%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (DEC) A | C 0.1%
1330 USD Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
1330 USD PCE Price Index YoY (DEC) A | P 1.1
1330 USD PCE Price Index MoM A | P 0.0%
1330 USD Personal Spending MoM (DEC) A | C -0.4% | P -0.4%
1330 CAD GDP MoM (NOV) A | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
1330 CAD RMPI MoM (DEC) A | P 0.6%
1445 USD Chicago PMI (JAN) A | C 58.5 | P 58.7
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (JAN) A | C 79.2 | P 79.2
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (JAN) A | P 73.8
1500 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (DEC) A | C -0.1% | P -2.6%
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 373
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Light selling after a short period ranging around the 1.3685 area opening, the market pushed into the Tokyo session testing the 1.3660 before returning through to the 1.3680 area and ranging around the 1.3670 through to the grey hours, dropping through to the 1.3640 level into the grey hours saw the market recover for a brief period into the London opening before dropping again and testing to the 1.3630 area for the low of the day, limited recovery through to the 1.3670 area before drifting back to the 1.3650 area for the move into the NYK session where stronger buying started to move into the market and the Cable pushed through to the 1.3690 area holding for a short period before running steadily through to the 1.3730 area holding for the NYK Option cut, the end of the London session saw the market pushing through to the 1.3745 area before drifting back to the 1.3720 level for the close.
- JPY: USDJPY ranged quietly through the session with 104.20-45 for the best part of the day after the low start pushed to the area, opening around the 104.10 level and into the Tokyo session pushing through the 104.20 area and then ranged through the balance of the Asian session and deep into the London session before heading into the NYK opening to test through the 104.45 level for the high of the day before dipping back and holding through to the London close, a light drift through to the close saw the 104.20 area tested before finishing in the mid 20’s
- AUD: A slow drift from the opening 0.7660 area testing through into the Tokyo session holding initially above the 0.7620 area through too the grey hours, dropping through to he 0.7600 level the London opening saw further selling as an attempt to move through the area but struggled with the 0.7590 area and eventually made it into the NYK session and a steady round of USD selling helped the market to recover and eventually break through the 0.7660 area and head steadily then through to above the 0.7690 area with very little resistance before drifting a little for the close.
- EUR: Drifting from the 1.2110 area the market slowly drifted through into the Tokyo session testing towards the 1.2080 area for the first time, the market then basing around the 1.2090 area through into the grey hours where the second attempt failed before recovering quickly into the London opening to test the opening levels, a quiet range through into the NYK opening and a quick move through the 1.2140 area testing the level 3 times before drifting for the close.
Premiership Results
NZD Trade Balance MoM (DEC) A 17m | P 252m | R 290m
NZD Trade Balance YoY (DEC) A 2,940m | P 3,260m | R 330m
JPY Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P 0.6%
CHF World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
EUR German CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.8% | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
USD GDP QoQ (Q4) A 4.0% | C 4.0% | P 33.4%
USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q3) A 1.9% | C 2.4% | P 3.7%
USD Goods Trade Balance (DEC) A -82.47b | P -85.49b
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 847k | C 875k | P 900k | R 914k
USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (DEC) A 1.1% | P 0.2% | R 0.4%
CAD Building Permits MoM (DEC) A -4.1% | C -5.0% | P 12.9% | 12.5%
USD New home sales (DEC) A 842k | C 865k | P 841k | R 829k
USD New Home Sales MoM (DEC) A 1.6% | C 1.9% | P -11.0% | R -12.6%
EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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