Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.72 | EURUSD 1.21377 | AUDUSD 0.76437 | NZDUSD 0.71832 | USDCAD 1.27765 | USDCHF 0.89074 | GBPUSD 1.36998 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21381 | 1.2120
USDJPY 104.829 | 104.607
GBPUSD 1.37399 | 1.36953
USDCHF 0.89218 | 0.89061
AUDUSD 0.76539 | 0.76064
NZDUSD 0.72032 | 0.71538
USDCAD 1.28195 | 1.2768
EURCHF 1.08184 | 1.07987
EURGBP 0.88541 | 0.88308
EURJPY 127.109 | 126.898
For Today
- GBP: A light dip to the lows to test lightly through to the 1.3692 area before moving into the Tokyo session to slowly rise through to the 1.3740 area as EURGBP selling moved through the market with tensions beginning to ebb after a few days of temper tantrums from parts of the EU over the believed slight of not receiving 100m vaccines the day before they cleared it for use in Europe, calls for resignation of Van Der Leyen, probably more from the anti-EU in Europe than the so called ultra-right wing Brexit types after attempting to block vaccination of a set of UK peoples using Article 16 of the Brexit agreement, Cable drifted from the high through to the grey hours to hold around the 1.3730 area for the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.3750 area with weak stops covered by stronger offers the closer the market pushes towards the 1.3800 area, weak stops through the level on a move through and likely to continue only a short distance before weakness appears and the topside opens up through to the 1.40 handle with sentimental offers limited. Downside bids through the 1.3650 level and increasing into the 1.3600 area and stops losses through the level run through to the 1.3550 area and strong bids start to appear and continue to increase into the 1.3500 level.
- JPY: A slow start to the week, opening a little higher and testing around the 104.80 area before slowly slipping back through to fill the gap to the 104.70 level and dipped into early Tokyo testing the 104.60 area before returning to the 104.70 area to meander through to the grey hours holding the level quietly, Topside offers through the 104.80 area increasing through to 105.00 level normal offers are likely to be thin with an old trend line in the area and weak stops are likely joined by break out players for a move through to the 105.50 area before congestion starts to appear. Downside bids light through the 104.00 level and weak stops limited, market likely to remain weak through to the 103.50 area where interest starts to increase with congestion around that level and stronger bids through to the 102.80 area.
- AUD: Opening around 10 pips lower after looking to be unchanged, a dip for the Tokyo opening saw the market testing through to the 0.7605 area before rejecting the lows and steadily trend through to the 0.7650 area before starting to range around the level through to the grey hours, Stronger bids likely just below through into the 0.7580 area before weak stops appear opening the market a little through to the 0.7550 area with stronger bids again and possibly continue through to the 0.7500 area. Topside offers light through the 77 cents level and likely to continue through to the 0.7750 with very little interference however beyond that level is likely to see stronger offers the closer the market gets to the 78 cents area and continuing through to the 0.7820 area before stops appear and open a higher move over the next couple of days.
- EUR: Opening unchanged and then slipping through to the 1.2120 area before recovering to hold around the 1.2130 with minor approaches on the 1.2140 area in early trading but unable to improve through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
EUR/GBP:
Weekend squabbles continued with the EU initially threatening the vaccines for N. Ireland, even their own media were shocked with the notion and it was withdrawn
Macron reiterates German advise that the AstraZenica vaccine is ineffective at best for over 65’s
AUD:
RBA faces taper quandary as peers stand pat – BBG
Australian PM warns big spending may end – BBG
Australia remains committed to engagement with China – Morrison – BBG
EUR:
ECB more worried about inflation being too low, Schnabel says – BBG
ECB’s Lane says stocks, bank bonds not in toolbox – RTRs
France and Germany mull sanctions on vaccine providers as EU row over delays escalates – TEL
German economy minister proposes scaling back state holdings – BBG
USD/CNY:
Government SWAT team is reviewing past start up deals tied to Chinese Investors – DJ
XAG/USD:
Silver retail sites grind to halt as Reddit horde moves to coins
Overall Silver saw some choppy periods in the first hour but well contained overall
CNY:
Virus Controls undercut China’s Holidays and economic recovery – BBG
USD:
Mayor Bill de Blasio: Beginning 6am tomorrow nonessential travel will be restricted in NYC – BBG
Today’s Data
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (JAN) A 52.8 | P 55.1
CNY Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 51.3 | C 51.6 | P 51.9
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 52.4 | P 55.7
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (JAN) A 55.3 | P 52.1
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 51.5 | C 52.7 | P 53.0
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P 0.8%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 7.3%
0700 EUR German Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A | C -2.6% | P 1.9%
0730 CHF Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A | P 1.7%
0815 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 50.9 | P 51.0
0830 CHF Precure.ch PMI (JAN) A | C 57.0 | P 58.0
0855 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 57.0 | P 58.3
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 54.7 | P 54.7
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 52.9 | P 562.9
1000 EUR Unemplo0yment Rate (DEC) A | C 8.3% | P 8.3%
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | P 59.1
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (JAN) A | P 51.7
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 60.0 | P 60.5
2130 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index A | P 52.1
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3720 area the market struggled with the 1.3730 area through into the Tokyo session before slowly drifting through the session to test lightly below the 1.3700 level before recovering to the 1.3715 area for the move into the grey hours, European sellers saw the Cable drifting through into midmorning in London testing through to the 1.3660 area before starting a steady rise through into the NYK session as the UK and EU discussed Article 16 of Brexit, the market rose through to the 1.3750 level for the highs of the day before drifting through to the close ranging steadily through to finish just above the 1.3700 area.
- JPY: Narrowing down from the opening around the 104.25 area and then starting a steady tight channelled move through to the 104.50 for the Tokyo fix testing lightly through to the upper 104.50’s before settling down to range around the 104.50 area through into the London opening before starting a steady quiet run through to the 104.65 before holding quietly for a short period and then quickly breaking through to the 104.90 area for the high and drifting back to range around the 104.70 level for the close.
- AUD: Light USD buying saw the Oz drifting through the Asian session testing back to the 0.7640 area forming a base for the day, the move into the London session saw the saw USD selling as the other pairs with the Oz slowly rising through to the NYK session testing the 0.7680 area dipping back and then after squeezing some longs our running quickly through to the 77 cents area before falling back to range around the base line through to the close.
- EUR: Limited range through into the Tokyo session having opened around the 1.2120 area and dip through to the 1.2100 level holding quietly through into the London session before starting a slow steady rise through into the NYK session pushing the 1.2155 area in early trading before drifting through the session to finish just above the opening levels.
Premiership Results
JPY Jobs/Applications Ratio (DEC) A 1.06 | C 1.06 | P 1.06
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (JAN) A -0.4% | C -0.6% | P -0.9%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (JAN) A 0.2% | P -0.1%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A -1.6% | C -1.5% | P -0.5%
AUD PPI YoY (Q4) A -0.1% | P -0.4%
AUD PPI QoQ (Q4) A 0.5% | P 0.4%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | P 0.1%
CHF KOF Leading Indicators (JAN) A 96.5 | C 102.0 | P 104.3 | R 104.1
CHF World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
EUR Spanish CPI YoY A 0.6% | P -0.5%
EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q4) A 0.4% | C -1.5% | P 16.4%
EUR Spanish HiCP YoY (JAN) A 0.6% | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
EUR German Unemployment Change (JAN) A -41k | C 6k | P -37k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 6.0% | C 6.1% | P 6.1% | R 6.0%
EUR German GDP YoY (Q4) A -2.9% | C -3.4% | P -3.9%
EUR German GDP QoQ (Q4) A 0.1% | P 8.5%
USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (DEC) A 1.5% | C 1.3% | P 1.4%
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | C 0.1%
USD Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q4) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
USD PCE Price Index YoY (DEC) A 1.3 | P 1.1
USD PCE Price Index MoM A 0.4% | P 0.0%
USD Personal Spending MoM (DEC) A -0.2% | C -0.4% | P -0.4%
CAD GDP MoM (NOV) A 0.7% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
CAD RMPI MoM (DEC) A 3.5% | P 0.6%
USD Chicago PMI (JAN) A 63.8 | C 58.5 | P 58.7
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (JAN) A 79.0 | C 79.2 | P 79.2
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (JAN) A 74.0 | P 73.8
USD Pending Home Sales MoM (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.1% | P -2.6% | R -2.5%
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 384 | P 378
Best Regards
Andy
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