Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.942 | EURUSD 1.20606 | AUDUSD 0.76215 | NZDUSD 0.71619 | USDCAD 1.28563 | USDCHF 0.89708 | GBPUSD 1.36628 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20877 | 1.20592
USDJPY 104.994 | 104.829
GBPUSD 1.36978 | 1.36598
USDCHF 0.89698 | 0.89579
AUDUSD 0.76622 | 0.76192
NZDUSD 0.71784 | 0.71494
USDCAD 1.28581 | 1.28232
EURCHF 1.08335 | 1.08194
EURGBP 0.88280 | 0.88220
EURJPY 126.819 | 126.530
For Today
- GBP: Making the lows in early trading and slowly making it into the Tokyo session trading through to the 1.3680 level before slipping lower through to range around the 1.3670 level for a short period before rising steadily through to hold above the 1.3690 area until late into the session to press into the grey hours holding in the mid 1.3680’s, Topside offers into the 1.3750 area with weak stops covered by stronger offers the closer the market pushes towards the 1.3800 area, weak stops through the level on a move through and likely to continue only a short distance before weakness appears and the topside opens up through to the 1.40 handle with sentimental offers limited. Downside bids through the 1.3650 level and increasing into the 1.3600 area and stops losses through the level run through to the 1.3550 area and strong bids start to appear and continue to increase into the 1.3500 level.
- JPY: Another quiet session opening around the 104.95 level dipping to the 104.88 area and snapping to just below the 105.00 area before settling down and drifting into the Tokyo session testing towards the 104.80 area and having made the lows slowly retracing to make the highs just below 105.00 level for the second time for the grey hours, Topside offers through the 105.00-20 area with possible weak stops through the level before stronger offers start to appear in a congestive move through into the 105.60 level and after a little bit of weakness increases through to the 106.00 level with stronger stops above the 106.20-30 area. Downside bids light through to the 104.50 level with bids beginning to fill the market around the level and stronger into the 104.00-20 areas and stronger bids below the 103.60 levels.
- AUD: Opening on its lows the Oz moved off the 0.7620 area to slowly push into the Tokyo session testing to just short of the 0.7640 area before dipping for a short period, pre-release trading saw the market slowly rising through the 0.7660 level and a no change dovish commentary saw the market quickly back to the lows for the move into the grey hours, Stronger bids likely just below through into the 0.7580 area before weak stops appear opening the market a little through to the 0.7550 area with stronger bids again and possibly continue through to the 0.7500 area. Topside offers light through the 77 cents level and likely to continue through to the 0.7750 with very little interference however beyond that level is likely to see stronger offers the closer the market gets to the 78 cents area and continuing through to the 0.7820 area before stops appear and open a higher move over the next couple of days.
- EUR: A steady rise from the opening lows just above the 1.2060 area testing through to just short of the 1.2090 area before slowly drifting a little lower through into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
USD:
Fed’s Kashkari: Fed shouldn’t pull back on aid – DJ
HKD:
Exchange Fund only for defending the currency – SMP
AUD:
RBA Tightening will be later and faster than market expects – CBA
RBA leaves cash rate target unchanged at 0.10%
RBA leaves 3-year yield target unchanged at 0.10%
RBA: Outlook for global economy has improved in recent months
RBA: Won’t raise rates until CPI sustainably within target
RBA: Path ahead likely to remain bumpy
RBA: Purchase additional AUD100b of government/state bonds
RBA: Purchases to start mid-April at AUD5b per week rate
RBA: CPI to remain below 2% over next couple of years
TWD:
Taiwan lawmakers seek to remove references to Chinese Unity from constitution – SMP
USD/CNY:
Biden told senators there are many areas where their proposal does not address urgent issues – RTRs
Biden: He hopes his rescue plan can pass with bipartisan support and he said a reconciliation package is a path to achieve that end – RTRs
CNY/USD:
Top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi says China is prepared to work with the US to move the relationship forward along the track of no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation – RTRs
Yang Jiechi: China has no intention to challenge or replace the US’s position in the world – RTRs
Yang: US-China history give optimism for hope of better ties – RTRs
Today’s Data
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (JAN) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P 0.8%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 7.3%
0800 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A | P 36.8k
1000 EUR GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -4.3% | P -4.3%
1000 EUR GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 12.7% | P 12.7%
1900 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -5.272m
2145 NZD Employment Change QoQ (Q4) A | C -0.8% | P -0.8%
2145 NZD Unemployment Rate (Q4) A | C 5.6% | P 5.3%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening a touch higher from Fridays close, the market quickly filled the gap on the charts and having tested the 1.3695 area pushed higher into the Tokyo session trading steadily through to the 1.3740 area to trade quietly into the grey hours, European buying saw the market pushing through to test lightly above the 1.3750 area on a stretch before drifting back to trade through into the London session again testing through the 1.3750 level but unable to push to the 1.3760 area and falling back into the London session pushing through towards the 1.3740 area to hold quietly through to early NYK and the market breaking through into the NYK session testing the 1.3660 level again basing along the area to the close.
- JPY: A very quiet range for the USDJPY with the market drifting from a higher opening around the 104.80 area to test through to the 104.60 and then ranging through into the London opening around the 104.70 level in a tight range, early London buyers saw the market push through to the 104.90 area and ranged around the level through into the NYK session, a minor breach of the 105.00 level saw the market then drift in the 104.95 area to the close.
- AUD: Opening a little lower pushing through to the 0.7605 area before early Tokyo started buying to take the market through to the 0.7640 area to fill the gap, the market continued to rise at a slow rate pushing through to the 0.7660 area for the high of the day just beyond the level before steadily drifting through to the 0.7630 area and ranging for the most part on a declining slope through to the 0.7610 area bouncing on the move through the London close and then dipping back from the 0.7645 area before holding quietly just above the 0.7620 areas.
- EUR: A quiet run through the Asian hours with the Euro dipping from the opening around the 1.2130 level to slip through to test the 1.2120 area, the move through into the London opening saw strong selling move the market quickly through to the 1.2090 ;level and then a second move to test the 1.2070 area with some weak stops triggered before slowly rallying through to the London close testing towards the 1.2100 area before drifting through the NYK session to close on its lows.
Premiership Results
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (JAN) A 52.8 | P 55.1
CNY Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 51.3 | C 51.6 | P 51.9
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 52.4 | P 55.7
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (JAN) A 55.3 | P 52.1
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 51.5 | C 52.7 | P 53.0
EUR German Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A -9.6% | C -2.6% | P 1.9% | R 1.1%
CHF Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A 4.7% | P 1.7% | R 1.8%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 49.3 | C 50.9 | P 51.0
CHF Precure.ch PMI (JAN) A 59.4 | C 57.0 | P 58.0
EUR German Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 57.1 | C 57.0 | P 58.3
EUR Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 54.8 | C 54.7 | P 54.7
GBP Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 54.1 | C 52.9 | P 562.9
EUR Unemplo0yment Rate (DEC) A 8.3% | C 8.3% | P 8.3%
USD Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 59.2 | P 59.1
USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (JAN) A 52.6 | P 51.7
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A 58.7 | C 60.0 | P 60.5
Best Regards
Andy
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