Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today

• GBP: A quiet drift from the opening to test the 1.3820 area and then a steady push through to test the 1.3850 level before holding steady for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers increasing through into the 1.3900 with increasing offers through any move higher weak stops likely on a break through the figure level and opening up a repeat of this weeks movements. Downside bids light through the 1.3800 level and weak stops now moved up closer to the market and the downside limited in support through to the 1.3700 areas before stronger bids appearing through and into the 1.3650 area to increase further into the 1.3600 level.
• JPY: A very quiet holiday session with the market holding around the 104.60 opening level all the way through with a very tight range less than 10 pips between the high and the lows, stronger bids through the 104.20-103.80 area will likely see weak stops however, strong bids are likely to appear on any test of the 103.50 area and continuing through to the 103.00 level, Topside offers light through the 105.00 level and increasing into the 105.40-60 area however, strong resistance remains in the 105.80-106.00 level with congestion likely to continue through the 106.70-107.00 areas.
• AUD: Holding around the 0.7722 area to rise to the 0.7725 for the opening in Tokyo before dropping quickly back to hold the 0.7710 area and a slow grind through the session testing through the 0.7738 level before holding around the highs for the move into the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7750 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
• EUR: Initially trading around the 1.2120 area dipping a little through into the 1.2115 area before slowly rising through to test the 1.2125 area and back to drifting for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.

Overnight News

USD:
USD faces divergent path despite better growth outlook – BBG
Yellen says Treasury will fight misuse of Cryptocurrencies, foster innovation – NPW
US needs to play long game on China in order to prevail over time – RTRs
EUR/GBP:
EU poised to lock Britain out of its banking market warns BoE Gov. Bailey – TEL
USD/CNY:
Biden Expresses concern to Xi on Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang – BBG
A US Priority was preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific – RTRs
Biden wants to ensure he and Xi have the opportunity to have an open line of communication – RTRs
Tariffs on China will remain in place while US review on trade policy takes place – RTRs
US is not going to act precipitously to lift tariffs on China, but there will be changes in trade policy – RTRs
US will look at new targeted restrictions on sensitive technology exports to China – RTRs
CNY/USD:
Xi tells USs Biden China and the US should re-establish various dialogue mechanisms to accurately understand each other’s political intentions and avoid misunderstandings and misjudgements – RTRs

Today’s Data
NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -0.4% | P 19.2% | R -0.6%
Holiday Japan National day
Holiday China Spring Festival
GBP RICS House Price Balance (JAN) A 50% | C 60% | P 65% | R 63%
0800 EUR ECBs De Guindos Speaks
1000 EUR Economic Projections for the EU
1200 USD OPEC Monthly Report
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 757k | P 779k
1600 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
1900 USD US Fed Budget A | P -430.0b
2130 NZD Business NZ PMI (JAN) A | P 48.7

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening around the 1.3815 area saw a light dip through into the Tokyo session testing through to just above the 1.3800 level before bouncing back through to 1.3820 and steadily rising towards the 1.3830 area before drifting through to the grey hours to hold around the 1.3820 for the move through the grey hours, early London were quick buyers and the market was pushing through the 1.3840 level for the opening to test through into the 1.3855 area before holding and drifting through into late morning holding just above the 1.3830 area again, with relationships between the UK and EU starting to head into a dark place with calls for the PM to retaliate for several blocks to UK trade to the EU now affecting the relationship countered by further attacks on the EU from within from MEP’s, NYK saw the market quickly move through to the 1.3865 level before drifting back and after a long period of trading around the 1.3840 area slipping back to the 1.3830 again for the close.
• JPY: USDJPY trading through the day was more like a heart monitor with a steady regular beat through too the early London morning and a jump, opening around the 104.60 area the market based for the most part on that area through to the London session, initially testing to the 104.70 area for the early highs in Tokyo before running around the 104.60 area with a minor dip to the 104.50 area for the move into the London session and the low posted just above the 104.40 level before quickly squeezing to the 104.85 area and a quiet run through into NYK holding around the 104.75 level before dipping on the opening back to the 104.60 area and a quiet run to the close.
• AUD: A light range throughout the day with the market opening around the 0.7730 area and rising initially above the 0.7740 level before dipping off in the run into Tokyo to test the 0.7725 level and repeat, the market held around the 0.7740 area for the run to the grey hours and the London session pushe3d to just above the 0.7750 area before dropping off on the opening in London and dipping through to the 0.7720 level and a little bit of a bounce through into the NYK opening testing through the 0.7755 level for the high of the day before drifting through to finish around the 0.7720 areas.
• EUR: Drift through into the Tokyo session slipping from the opening around the 1.2120 area to test the 1.2110 level and the low for the day, a steady rise through the early part of the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.2130 level before drifting and holding the 1.2125 for the move into the London session, London opening saw the market spiking through to the 1.2145 area before dropping back and pushing through to the opening level before ranging around the 12120 level into the NYK session, a rise through to the 1.2140 area and the market then holding around the 1.2135 through to late into the session before drifting back to the opening levels for the close.

Premiership Results
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A 1.9% | P -4.5%
CNY CPI MoM (JAN) A 1.0% | C 1.0% | P 0.7%
CNY CPI YoY (JAN) A -0.3% | C -0.1% | P 0.2%
CNY PPI YoY (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P -0.4%
EUR German CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.8% | C 0.8% | P 0.5%
EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
USD Core CPI YoY (JAN) A 1.4% | C 1.5% | P 1.6%
USD Core CPI MoM (JAN A 0.0% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.4% | R 0.2%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -6.6441m | C 0.985m | P -0.994m
CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
GBP Gov. Bailey Speaks
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
USD Fed Budget Balance (JAN) A -163.0b | C -150.0b | P -144.0b

Best Regards
Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

Sign up for Global FX Insights, the daily market commentary from LMAX Group

Cookie settings

Necessary cookies

Analytics cookies