Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.863 | EURUSD 1.20406 | AUDUSD 0.7751 | NZDUSD 0.71879 | USDCAD 1.27002 | USDCHF 0.89886 | GBPUSD 1.38644 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20504 | 1.2036
USDJPY 105.912 | 105.698
GBPUSD 1.38764 | 1.38472
USDCHF 0.89900 | 0.89805
AUDUSD 0.77716 | 0.77482
NZDUSD 0.72015 | 0.71825
USDCAD 1.27121 | 1.26868
EURCHF 1.08251 | 1.08213
EURGBP 0.86927 | 0.86836
EURJPY 127.571 | 127.358
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3860 area and holding quietly through into the Tokyo session pushing through to just below the 1.3880 area before drifting once the Tokyo fix was over to fall through to the 1.3850 area and ranging through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through 1.3950 with stronger offers likely through the 1.4000 area and option related barriers to clear with weak stops on a strong break of the 1.4000 areas, light offers into the 1.4050 areas and increasing again into the 1.4100 level and offers then thinning out for further moves through the sentimental levels, downside bids light through to the 1.3850 area with weak bids continuing through to the 1.3800 level and weak stops appearing on a dip through the level to run into stronger bids through 1.3750.
- JPY: A very quiet run through to the Tokyo session with USDJPY dipping through to the 105.70 area into the Tokyo fix and then slowly rise back through the opening level to test the 105.92 highs, Topside offers around the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas with stronger stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
- AUD: Trading quietly moving off the 0.7750 area to move into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7770 area before dropping just as quickly back once the Tokyo fix was over with, a little bit of movement around the 0.7755 area before moving through to the grey hours holding quietly, Offers through the 0.7800 area and then likely to see increasing offers through to the 0.7820 area before congestive offers then start kicking in on any move through the area into the 0.7850-60 areas. Downside bids light back through the 77 cents level and weak stops on a dip through the 0.7680 area and limited bids through to the 0.7620 level and increasing through to the 0.7580 level before stops appear.
- EUR: A light rise through to the 1.2050 area before slowly drifting lower from the midsession onwards to test the 1.3030 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.2150 area and then after a brief weak period increasing into the 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
AUD:
China’s rare earth export curbs push Australian miner to fast track Africa project as nations step up diversification plans – SMP
Facebook cuts off news in Australia in fight over payments – BBG
USD:
One third of troops turning down Covid vaccine, Pentagon official say – NZ1
MXN:
Mexico to announce significant aid for PEMEX, Herrera says – BBG
CNY:
China Coal futures drop below 600 Yuan as bitter winter eases – BBG
JPY:
BoJ’s Kuroda tell Suga March review aimed at sustaining easing policy
Today’s Data
AUD Employment Change (JAN) A 29.1k | C 40.0k | P 50.0k
AUD Full Employment Change (JAN) A 39.0k | P 35.7k
AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 6.4% | P 6.5% | P 6.6%
1000 EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
1000 GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
1230 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
1300 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (JAN) A | P 4.2%
1330 USD Building Permits (JAN) A | C 1.678m | P 1.704m
1330 USD Export Price Index MoM (JAN) A | C 0.7% | P 1.1%
1330 USD Housing Starts (JAN) A | 1.658m | P 1.669m
1330 USD Housing Starts MoM (JAN) A | P 5.8%
1330 USD Import Price Index MoM (JAN) A | C 1.0% | P 0.9%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 765k | P 793k
1330 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB) A | C 20.0 | P 26.5
1330 USD Philly Fed Employment (FEB) A | P 22.5
1330 CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (JAN) A | P 0.3%
1500 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1600 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.429m | P 0.6.644m
1615 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
2145 NZD PPI Input QoQ (Q4) A | P 0.6%
2330 JPY National Core CPI YoY (JAN) A | C -0.7% | P -1.0%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A steady drift through from the opening above the 1.3905 area and the highs for the day to test into the 1.3860 level before finding some buyers, ranging around the 1.3890 level through into the grey hours, and after a brief test of the 1.3870 area recovered through into the London session pushing just above the 1.3900 areas again. Early London were overall sellers and the market dropping down to the 1.3855 area recovering a little then dropping again on the move into the NYK session to test into the 1.3830 level for the low of the day before recovering a little on the move to the London close and then slowly rise to the 1.3865 closing area.
- JPY: Opening in a rising move through to the 106.20 level into Tokyo to make the high of the day before holding quietly for a short period around the 106.10 area a second test higher for the fix could not improve the high and a steady drift through into midsession holding the 105.90 area for a period and then ranging around the level starting a steady rise through to the NYK session again pushing for the highs and failing and then dropping quickly back after the flirtation dipping this time and ranging around the 105.80 level and a quiet run to the close just short of the 105.90 level.
- AUD: The Oz dipped into the Tokyo session from the 0.7760 level to test the 0.7730 area and then steadily recovering through to the 0.7750 area to range around the level through to the grey hours, pushing steadily higher through to the 0.7770 area for the high of the day only to drift back at a slightly slower pace testing the 0.7740 for the move into the NYK session and pushing through the 0.7725 area for the lows basing in the area for several hours before recovering a little for the move to the close.
- EUR: Opening on its highs and dipping through to the 1.2080 area and basing along the level through into the London session before renewing the move lower, Main stream media seems to be ignoring the opening cracks in the EU with repeated calls for Von der Leyen under pressure to resign and several MEP’s as well as Verhofstadt making deep commentaries on failures, moving into the NYK session the USD buyers moved through to test the 1.2030 area and after a brief reprieve pushing through into the 1.2025 level for the low of the session and slow quiet range through to the close holding around the 1.2040 areas.
Premiership Results
JPY Exports YoY (JAN) A 6.4% | C 6.6% | P 2.0%
JPY Trade Balance (JAN) A -323.9b | C -600.0b | P 749.6b
Holiday CNY Spring Festival
AUD RBA Asst Gov Kent Speaks
GBP CPI MoM (JAN) A -0.2% | C -0.4% | P 0.3%
GBP CPI YoY (JAN) A 0.7% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
GBP PPI Input MoM (JAN) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.8% | R 1.2%
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
USD Core PPI MoM (JAN) A 1.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD Core Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 5.9% | C 1.0% | P -1.4% | R -1.8%
USD PPI MoM (JAN) A 1.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.3%
USD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 5.3% | C 1.1% | P -0.7% | R -1.0%
CAD Core CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.5% | P -0.4%
CAD Core CPI YoY (JAN) A 1.6% | C 1.4% | P 1.5%
CAD CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.6% | C 0.4% | P -0.2%
USD Industrial Production YoY (JAN) A -1.82% | P -3.58% | R -3.15%
USD Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A 0.9% | C 0.5% | P 1.6% | R 1.3%
USD Business Inventories MoM (DEC) A 0.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto A 1.2% | P 1.1%
GBP MPC Member Ramaden Speaks
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -5.800m | P -3.500m
Best Regards
Andy
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