Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.076 | EURUSD 1.21578 | AUDUSD 0.79163 | NZDUSD 0.73361 | USDCAD 1.26174 | USDCHF 0.89611 | GBPUSD 1.40626 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21774 | 1.21532
USDJPY 105.119 | 104.923
GBPUSD 1.40843 | 1.40551
USDCHF 0.89598 | 0.8950
AUDUSD 0.79347 | 0.7909
NZDUSD 0.73328 | 0.73125
USDCAD 1.26187 | 1.25855
EURCHF 1.09028 | 1.08964
EURGBP 0.86482 | 0.86428
EURJPY 127.835 | 127.659
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise pushing through the 1.4080 area again and again from the opening just above the 1.4060 level, a little bit of selling through midsession before again returning to push through into the grey hours testing above the 1.4080 level. Topside light offers through to the 1.4100 level with weak offers likely to continue through the level with stops likely on a push beyond the 1.4110 area with any congestion limited to the sentimental levels, with 1.4150 area and stronger into 1.4200, downside bids light through the 1.4000 level and then weak stops light opening to the 1.3950 area for stronger bids from there to the 1.3900 level.
- JPY: Drifting from the opening around the 105.10 area and testing through to just above the 104.90 area and ranging around the 105.00 level through to the grey hours in quiet Asian session with JPY holiday, Topside offers around the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas with stronger stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
- AUD: Quiet range with the market ranging around the 0.7915 area for several hours into a bank holiday Tokyo session rising a little through toe the 0.7935 area before drifting back to test the 0.7910 area and returning to the opening areas for the move into the grey hours, weak offers through to the 0.7950 area stronger offers kick in with possible option barriers into the strong sentimental 80 cents level and strong stops on a move through to likely challenge the 0.8050 level quickly, downside bids light through the 79 cents level with weak stops opening a chance of a deeper run as people are squeezed with better bids likely on any move into the 0.7800 areas.
- EUR: A slow rise from the 1.2155 area to push steadily through to the 1.2175 level before drifting back to range around the 1.2170 area for the grey hours in quiet trading, Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
NZD Retail Sales QoQ (Q4) A -2.7% | P 28.0%
Japan Holiday Emperor’s Birthday
0700 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (DEC) A | C 4.1% | P 3.6%
0700 GBP Claimant Count Change (JAN) A | C 35.0k | P 7.0k
0700 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (DEC) A | C -30k | P -88k
0700 GBP Unemployment Rate (DEC) A | C 5.1% | P 5.0%
0730 CHF PPI MoM (JAN) A | P 0.5%
0930 GBP Labour Productivity A | P 4.0%
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 1.4% | P 0.2%
1000 EUR CPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (JAN) A | C 0.9% | P -0.3%
1400 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. YoY (DEC) A | C 9.9% | P 9.1%
1500 USD CB Consumer Confidence (FEB) A | C 90.0 | P 89.3
1500 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
1730 CAD BoC Gov. Council Member Macklem Speaks
2100 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -5.800M
Today’s Data
USD:
Biden picks up where Trump left off in hard-line stances at WTO – BBG
Collins, Romney to vote no on Biden budget nominee Tanden – AXS
EUR/CNY:
Top EU diplomats step up criticism of China’s crackdown on Hong Kong – SMP
NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr scheduled to speak March 4 at Waikato conference
AUD:
Craig Kelly quits the Liberal Party, PM’s numbers squeezed – AFR
Australia preliminary Jan goods exports tumbled 9% ABS says – BBG
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A light opening just above Fridays close saw the early part of the session dipping to fill the gap and then steadily move through to the 1.4050 area into early Tokyo before reversing to test back to the opening level and a tight range through to the grey hours holding around the 1.4015 area where we opened, European sellers saw a push below the figure level to test to the 1.3980 level for the London session to open and buyers push it back through to the 1.4025 level and a steady range through to the NYK opening and after a brief pause before rallying through to the 1.4065 area for the NYK option cut and after a brief test of the 1.4050 area the market steadily rose through to the 1.4085 highs of the day and then drifting through to the close.
- JPY: Opening unchanged and pushing through to the 105.60 level from 105.40 opening lows to push through to the 105.70 area into the Tokyo session and then holding quietly around the 105.65 area through the grey hours, early London become buyers through to the 105.80 area topping out just short of the 105.85 area before drifting off through the session to fall back to the 105.50 area for the move into the NYK session pausing and then continuing through to the 105.00 areas and a suggestion of someone buying GBPJPY throughout.
- AUD: A steady rise through the early part of the Asian session testing through to the 0.7910 area before drifting back for the grey hours holding just above the opening level before drifting to the 0.7855 level for the move into the London session testing the area a couple of times before starting a slow steady climb through to the 0.7930 area for the high of the day late into the NYK session before dipping a little for the move to the close.
- EUR: A reasonably quiet session for the Euro with the market making an early rise from the opening around the 1.2110 area to push lightly through the 1.2130 level, a dip back and then holding quietly through to the grey hours holding the 1.2120 areas dipping through the grey hours testing below 1.2110 before heading into the London session quickly dipping to the 1.2090 area for the low of the day, a steady recovery through the London session saw the market holding around the 1.2140 level to range through to the Tokyo session before slowly pushing to the highs holding just below the 1.2170 area before drifting a little for the close.
Premiership Results
EUR German Business Expectations (FEB) A 94.2 | C 91.8 | P 91.1 | R 91.5
EUR German Current Assessment (FEB) A 90.0 | C 89.0 | P 89.2
EUR German ifo Business Climate Index (FEB) A 92.4 | C 90.5 | P 90.1 | R 90.3
EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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