Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 105.254 | EURUSD 1.2150 | AUDUSD 0.79115 | NZDUSD 0.73304 | USDCAD 1.2589 | USDCHF 0.90528 | GBPUSD 1.41126 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21662 | 1.21431
USDJPY 105.538 | 105.193
GBPUSD 1.42437 | 1.41002
USDCHF 0.90661 | 0.90426
AUDUSD 0.79454 | 0.7904
NZDUSD 0.73834 | 0.73143
USDCAD 1.25965 | 1.2560
EURCHF 1.10149 | 1.09694
EURGBP 0.86157 | 0.85397
EURJPY 128.284 | 127.775
For Today
- GBP: Opening quietly and trading off the 1.4110 area through into the Tokyo session and the Tokyo fix seeing a strong demand for GBPJPY helping the Cable push quickly from the 1.4120 through to the 1.4200 level with a spike beyond the level, once the demand was over with the market dipped instantly to the 1.4185 area and then a steady drift through to hold around the 1.4165 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.4250 level with light stops quickly reappearing above the 1.4200 level but possibly matched through to the sentimental level, congestion through to the 1.4300 level and likely to be a harder task to grind through to the 1.44 levels if the M&A action is over with, downside bids light through to the 1.4100 level although the further into the day we go the more the bids will move up, a dip through the 1.4100 level is likely to see some weak stops and the market opening to the 1.4050/1.4000 level with possibly stronger bids into the lower end however, a move through to those levels will likely undermine the market opening a deeper move with a lack of buying following through the past weeks run.
- JPY: Drifting a little into the Tokyo session and then moving off the 105.20 area lows and pushing steadily through to the 105.50 level with the bulk of the move into the Tokyo fix with the GBPJPY, the rest of the session was limited and ranged around the 105.50 area. Topside offers around the 106.50 area and stronger offers through to the 107.00 areas with stronger stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 105.00 level and weak stops light through the 104.80 area and then stronger bids likely to appear below the 104.50 areas and continuing into the 104.00 level.
- AUD: AUD remains in the middle of a lot of option expiries today with downside marked at 0.7850 and topside 0.7950 and likely to continue through the week with notable amounts through to Friday. Holding quietly around the 0.7910 area dipping lightly towards the 79 cents level before moving into the Tokyo session and rising quickly through to the 0.7945 area before holding for a short period and drifting through to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, , weak offers through to the 0.7950 area stronger offers kick in with possible option barriers into the strong sentimental 80 cents level and strong stops on a move through to likely challenge the 0.8050 level quickly, downside bids light through the 79 cents level with weak stops opening a chance of a deeper run as people are squeezed with better bids likely on any move into the 0.7800 areas.
- EUR: Rising steadily from the opening around the 1.2150 area, dragged by the Cable move the market managed a test above the 1.2165 level before drifting through the balance of the session testing through to the 1.2145 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
USD:
Biden’s trade chief tasked with reset after Trump tariff chaos – BBG
A bipartisan group of US senators will revive legislation as soon as Wednesday to counter Chinese – RTRs
CNY/HKD:
China says non-patriots to be banned from HK’s Government – AFR
NZD:
RBNZ Sees inflation slowing to 1.4% in 2Q 2022
RBNZ: Prepared to provide additional stimulus if necessary
RBNZ: Maintains benchmark interest rate at 0.25%
RBNZ: Refrains from publishing cash rate projections
RBNZ Bond purchase program NZD 100b
GBP:
Boris Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown could be accelerated if real world data on the effect of vaccines is better than expected – TEL
Today’s Data
AUD Construction Work Done QoQ (Q4) A -0.9% | C 1.0% | P -2.6%
AUD Wage Price Index QoQ (Q4) A 0.6% | C 0.3% | P 0.1%
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
0700 EUR German GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.1% | P 8.5%
0700 EUR German GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -2.9% | P -3.9%
1200 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
1500 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
1500 USD New Home Sales (JAN) A | C 855k | P 842k
1500 USD New Home Sales MoM (JAN) A | C 2.1% | P 1.6%
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -5.190m | P -7.258m
1530 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
1800 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Reasonably quiet but steady grind through to the 1.4100 level, opening around the 1.4070 area rising into the Tokyo session pushing the 1.4085 area before moving into the grey hours dipping towards the 1.4065 level, early London buyers through to just short of the 1.4100 level for the first time and then holding around the 1.4085 areas through to the NYK session dipping back to make the lows into the 1.4055 level bouncing off the level and pushing steadily through to push just above the 1.4120 level and a long time trend line which held more or less to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 105.10 area the market dipped in early trading falling back through to hold just above the 104.90 areas and into the Tokyo session to slowly rise through into the London session testing the 105.30 level with GBPJPY showing strongly through the session on M&A buying one would guess, the move into the NYK session saw the market pushing lightly through the 105.40 level before dropping back once the market moved deeper in that session testing the 10510 area and a steady finish into the close.
- AUD: A quiet opening holding around the 0.7916/18 area through to the Tokyo session rising through to the 0.7935 highs for the day before dipping steadily back to range around the opening levels, London slowly sold through the morning into the 0.7890 level before ranging around the 79 cents into the NYK session, a quick dip through to the 0.7880 level before returning to the opening levels and a quiet move through to the close.
- EUR: Steady rise through into the Tokyo session pushing above the 1.2175 level before settling back to range around the 1.2170 level through to the grey hours where light buying through the 1.2180 area saw the highs for the day, USD buying through the London session saw the Euro dipping awa through to the NYK session testing the 1.2135 level before bouncing through to the 1.2165 area and settling into a low range for the close.
Premiership Results
NZD Retail Sales QoQ (Q4) A -2.7% | P 28.0%
Japan Holiday Emperor’s Birthday
GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (DEC) A 4.7% | C 4.1% | P 3.6% | R 3.7%
GBP Claimant Count Change (JAN) A -20.0k | C 35.0k | P 7.0k | R -20.4k
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (DEC) A -114k | C -30k | P -88k
GBP Unemployment Rate (DEC) A 5.1% | C 5.1% | P 5.0%
CHF PPI MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | P 0.5%
GBP Labour Productivity A -1.1% | P 4.0%
EUR Core CPI YoY (JAN) A 1.4% | C 1.4% | P 0.2%
EUR CPI MoM (JAN) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
EUR CPI YoY (JAN) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P -0.3%
USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. YoY (DEC) A 10.1% | C 9.9% | P 9.1% | R 9.2%
USD CB Consumer Confidence (FEB) A 91.3 | C 90.0 | P 89.3 | R 88.9
USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
CAD BoC Gov. Council Member Macklem Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 1.026m | P -5.800M
Best Regards
Andy
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