Data light day puts focus on Nvidia earnings

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.366 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound has been a clear outperformer in recent sessions as BOE rate cut odds fade. At the same time, the PM has warned of a painful budget, higher taxes, and greater borrowing. On the data front, CBI retail sales went negative for the third month. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

BOJ Deputy Governor Himino was out on the wires echoing recent comments from BOJ Ueda, hinting the central bank could hike rates further if the economy and prices evolved as projected. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6814 – 28 August high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Aussie headline CPI decelerated by less than expected, with the result translating to a fresh wave of Aussie demand to an eight month high against the US Dollar. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The latest run of Canadian Dollar gains seem to be more about stop-hunting than anything else. Fundamentally, the outlook for the Canada economy remains in question, while Tuesday's setbacks in the price of oil and negative wholesale sales print should do nothing to help. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6286 – 4 January/2024 high – Strong
• R1 0.6255 – 27 August high – Medium
• S1 0.6128 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has been well bid of late on the back of a weaker US Dollar and well supported US equities. Economic data out of New Zealand has been rather neutral of late. Filled jobs contracted in July for a fourth straight month, though the pace of decline fell to its slowest rate over this time period. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5656 – 26 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.