12 October 2021
6 reasons bitcoin is surging in October
LMAX Digital performance

Total notional volume at LMAX Digital continues to trade at impressive levels in October. On Monday we highlighted the ramp up in volume in the previous week relative to the week before, and into Tuesday, things are still holding up well.

But we are coming off a lighter session on account of holidays in North America, and this did perhaps result in a bit of a slower day on Monday. Still, total notional volume for Monday came in at $1.13 billion, just 4% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume actually was up 2% relative to 30-day volume on Monday. Bitcoin volume came in at $642 million on Monday. Ether went the other way, albeit mildly, with volume coming in at $313 million, 8% below 30-day average volume.

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There’s been a lot of talk about this latest surge in the price of bitcoin, with the price now closing in on a retest of the record high from earlier this year. So we thought we would take some time to highlight the major drivers of price action. Here goes:

One: The market has become less worried about regulatory threats out of China. This sentiment has strengthened in the aftermath of the most recent hype around China bans at the end of September. Bottom line. Nothing new and just the same old same.

Two: As much as the regulatory climate has been unfriendly in China, things appear to be, at least for now, moving in a better direction in the US. Official comments have definitely been less cold and talk around a working ETF product is moving closer towards a reality.

Three: Seasonality is also playing a part here. October has been one of the best performance months for bitcoin, perhaps as market participants buckle down and consider positioning into the 4th quarter of the year.

Four: The year of 2021 has been the year of institutional adoption in the space and as the year has moved on, there have been more and more big names that have wanted to start dipping in. Soros Fund Management is another one of these big names recently making headlines.

Five: There has been a longtime discussion around the compelling case for bitcoin as an alternative store of value to gold. In 2021, we’ve seen large outflows from gold ETFs, all while we see massive inflows into bitcoin funds. According to a report of a major US bank, $10 billion has been pulled out of gold ETFs, and $20 billion has moved into bitcoin funds in 2021 thus far.

Six: Bitcoin’s Lightning Network has continued to make amazing strides. The advanced payment protocol has the potential to be a major gamechanger for global payments and efforts to increase transaction speeds on Lightning have been extremely effective.

LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,586
ETHUSD
$214
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