LMAX Digital volumes got off to a healthy start this week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $371 million, 30% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $231 million on Monday, 34% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $91 million, 34% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,818 and average position size for ether at $2,883.

Market volatility continues to trend lower since peaking back in August. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,923 and $102 respectively.

Absence of any major headlines has left us focused on seasonal trend analysis and global macro headlines.

As far as seasonal trend analysis goes, there is plenty of room for optimism with Q4 far and away the strongest quarter for bitcoin performance. This includes impressive historical performance in the month of October.

Perhaps even more encouraging is performance in Q4 during halving years. In the previous two halving years (2016, 2020), Q4 performance was outstanding, with bitcoin posting strong double digit returns in each Q4 month.

In 2016, bitcoin produced returns of +15.87%, +5.85%, and +28.09% in October, November, and December. In 2020, bitcoin produced returns of +29.36%, +39.92%, and +49.63% in October, November, and December.

On the macro front, while there has been some short-term crypto weakness to start the week, overall, things are looking quite bright.

The combination of wider adoption in 2024, a return to accommodative Fed policy, and what will likely be increased upside pressure on inflation, is a combination that lends itself to a higher bitcoin price.

Technically speaking, we remain confined to a consolidation, though this continues to be a consolidation within a very strong uptrend. This sets the stage for an eventual breakout to fresh record highs.

Given Q4 historical performance metrics, we wouldn’t at all be surprised to see that breakout happening sooner than later.