LMAX Digital volumes were light on Wednesday. Total notional volume came in at $357 million, 43% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $207 million, 47% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $87 million, 47% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $9,954 and average position size for ether at $4,341.

Market volatility is off about 30% from the multi-month high in March. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,793 and $153 respectively.

Bitcoin has been under mild pressure all week, producing bearish daily closes on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Having said that, we really haven’t gone anywhere at all and continue to trade well above last week’s critical low.

As per our technical insights, we’ve introduced the possibility of last week’s low representing an important low as the next higher low ahead of a fresh upside extension to another record high.

Fundamentally, there’s been some disappointment around the prospect the SEC will be approving an eth spot ETF anytime soon. The fact that Grayscale has withdrawn its application originally filed in September 2023 has reinforced this view.

At the same time, in our Wednesday note we talked about what’s priced in versus the balance of risk and highlighted the fact that with expectations running so low for an eth spot ETF approval, there is room for the market to trade higher on any positive updates that might come in the days and weeks ahead.

The US elections could very well play a part in shaping where things go. Most recently, President Trump has been more vocal about his affection from the crypto space.

Of course, the outlook for the US Dollar and Fed policy will also play a part.

Should the Fed lean more accommodative, it will likely open US Dollar outflows, which are expected to benefit crypto assets.

If however the Fed chooses to push back towards a more restrictive policy path, it will invite more demand for the US Dollar and could invite some downside pressure on crypto assets.