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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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20 August 2026
Compression breaks, conviction returns
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes were impressive on Wednesday, putting in their strongest performance since early July.

Total notional volume for came in at $349 million, 130% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $200 million, 145% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $55 million, 135% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,806 and average position size for ether at $1,900.

Volatility has finally picked up, showing signs of wanting to break out from a prolonged period of subdued trade. Daily ranges in bitcoin and ether have risen to $1,555 and $72 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

Bitcoin has broken decisively higher after an extended period of range contraction, with the move through $67,300 marking an important shift in the market structure.

The breakout opens the door to a potentially much larger topside move, with $83,000 emerging as the next major target if Bitcoin can consolidate above the former resistance zone.

The initial catalyst was the US Treasury’s decision to at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks. The announcement eased stress in the Treasury market, pulled the 10-year yield back towards 4.65% and weakened the dollar towards a three-month low.

That combination improved global liquidity expectations and provided a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin and other higher-duration assets.

The rally was then amplified by positioning. Around $1.4 billion of bearish crypto positions were reportedly liquidated within several hours, forcing short sellers to buy back into a rapidly rising market.

The break above the recent range also attracted momentum demand, while optimism surrounding President Trump’s meeting with crypto executives reinforced expectations that market-structure legislation could advance when Congress returns in September.

Ether is leading the higher-beta portion of the move as capital rotates into the more depressed major asset. Having reclaimed $2,000, the next significant test comes at $2,470.

A sustained break above that level should accelerate momentum and open a path towards $3,500, while continued improvement in ETHBTC would provide stronger confirmation that the advance is broadening into DeFi and the wider digital-asset market.

The near-term backdrop is therefore increasingly constructive. For now, falling yields, dollar weakness, improving regulatory expectations and major technical breakouts suggest crypto may be entering the early stages of a substantially larger move higher.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$1,555
ETHUSD
$72
Tweets Social media

@TheBlockCo
Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $517.2 million in net inflows on Wednesday.

@Cointelegraph
Grayscale says new SEC crypto rules could unlock more token fundraising in the US and boost major networks.

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