26 June 2024
Considering the Mt. Gox repayment risk
LMAX Digital performance

LMAX Digital volumes were up across the board on Tuesday. Total notional volume came in at $573 million, 55% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $322 million, 75% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $191 million, 36% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $9,061 and average position size for ether at $4,440.

Market volatility has been trending lower since March but could finally be showing some signs of wanting to bottom out. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,976 and $129 respectively.

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The other day, we talked about how the Mt. Gox bitcoin repayment plan was adding to downside pressure on bitcoin. The big picture view is that the a lot of this repaid bitcoin will ultimately be sold, which will drive the price lower.

We believe there has definitely been a specific downside pressure on bitcoin because of this, with evidence emerging by way of the ETHBTC rate.

Risk markets have been stumbling in recent sessions which would normally invite ETH underperformance relative to bitcoin. And yet, ETH has enjoyed a wave of outperformance versus bitcoin over the past week or so.

And so, with that said, it becomes a lot easier to point to the Mt. Gox bitcoin repayment story as a way to reconcile the price action.

Having said that, we believe there are two key reasons why we’ve already seen most of the downside from the Mt. Gox story.

The first is that markets are very good at anticipating future events and pricing them in. Now that the details of the repayments have been revealed, the market has digested the news and reacted accordingly.

The second reason is that we don’t believe the Mt. Gox victims will be so quick to liquidate their recovered bitcoin.

Now that the price of bitcoin has cooled off quite a bit from the record high, these holders will be more motivated to look to be sitting still and holding onto their bitcoin at more attractive prices.

It’s also important to remember that these holders were early holders of bitcoin, before most even understood what bitcoin was. This supports the idea that many of these holders should be very happy to hang on to that bitcoin.

LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$1,976
ETHUSD
$129
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