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| 9 October 2025 Fed caution keeps crypto in check…for now |
| LMAX Digital performance |
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LMAX Digital volumes cooled off from Tuesday levels but were still solid overall on Wednesday. Total notional volume came in at $643 million, 10% above 30-day average volume. Bitcoin volume printed $303 million, 23% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $206 million, 3% above 30-day average volume. Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $12,857 and average position size for ether at $3,586. Bitcoin volatility is trending higher, recovering from the lowest levels of the year. ETH volatility has stabilized after a period of cool down from multi-month highs. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,812 and $180 respectively. |
| Latest industry news |
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Bitcoin has traded softer in recent sessions, slipping back after testing highs earlier in the week. The move reflects a moderation in momentum following heavy inflows into crypto-linked ETFs and strong institutional participation. The combination of a mild wave of demand for the U.S. dollar and cautious risk sentiment across broader markets has left bitcoin consolidating rather than extending gains. ETH has moderately underperformed relative to bitcoin, struggling to maintain the $4,500 handle. Resistance near the $4,700–4,800 band has proven resilient for the time being. While the medium-term backdrop of network upgrades and robust on-chain activity remains supportive, near-term trading suggests ETH may need additional consolidation before any renewed push higher. The broader digital asset complex has experienced bouts of volatility tied to liquidations of leveraged long positions, which has also amplified downside moves. Still, selective outperformance is evident in pockets of DeFi and exchange tokens, as investors rotate into names with differentiated narratives. Traditional market dynamics have added pressure, with the latest Fed Minutes reinforcing the narrative of a central bank still wary about declaring victory over inflation. The minutes suggested a willingness to hold rates restrictive for longer, dampening risk appetite and supporting the dollar. Looking ahead, the balance between ongoing ETF demand and macro headwinds will determine direction. If risk sentiment stabilizes and the Fed narrative shifts toward a clearer path for easing in 2025, crypto could find renewed support. For now, stretched positioning and lingering uncertainty in both U.S. politics and global markets leave bitcoin and ETH happy in consolidation before attempting fresh upside. |
| LMAX Digital metrics | ||||
| Price performance last 30 days avg. vs USD (%) |
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| Total volumes last 30 days ($bn) |
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| BTCUSD volumes last 30 days ($bn) |
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| BTCUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k) |
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| ETHUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k) |
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| Average daily range | ||||
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