Total notional volume from last Monday through Friday came in at $3.8 billion, 16% higher than the previous week.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $2.2 billion, 12% higher than the previous week. Ether volume came in at $1 billion, 58% higher than the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $18 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $9,545 and average position size for ether at $2,944.

Bitcoin and ETH volatility remains elevated but is starting to cool off from multi-month highs. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $4,195 and $213 respectively.

Sentiment across the crypto complex remains deeply depressed, and history suggests that when Bitcoin reaches oversold technical conditions—much as it has in recent days—it often marks the early stage of a bullish reversal.

While the recent pullback has been extreme, it has not altered our broader outlook. As we move toward year-end, we suspect the market will begin the process of carving out a meaningful bottom, one that should ultimately set the stage for a broader recovery across major crypto assets into 2026.

The drivers behind the recent weakness are multifaceted. The most visible has been the shift toward a more hawkish tone in prior Fed communications, which briefly fueled risk-off flows and reinforced broad U.S. dollar strength.

As we have noted before, however, such periods rarely persist; the Fed has repeatedly shown a tendency to lean back toward market expectations, and recent commentary has already taken on a more dovish hue.

At the same time, the market likely became overextended after the strong wave of adoption and regulatory progress throughout 2025, creating a natural “what’s next?” pause that invited profit-taking. This, in turn, triggered a cascade of liquidations as over-levered positions were forced out.

Technicals added another layer of pressure. The conviction that Bitcoin would not revisit sub-$100k levels—once that barrier broke—introduced doubt among shorter-term participants less familiar with the asset’s historical volatility profile.

Despite the long-term trend toward lower volatility, Bitcoin remains capable of producing sharp corrective moves, and these episodes tend to shake out weaker hands. Compounding matters, expectations for a characteristically strong Q4 were high, and the failure of the market to deliver on those seasonal hopes further eroded confidence and accelerated the slide in sentiment.

Still, none of these developments meaningfully alters the fundamental trajectory. Crypto’s history is defined by deep pullbacks that ultimately resolve in new highs, and the structural drivers underpinning Bitcoin and the broader asset class remain intact.

While calling a precise bottom is never possible, we believe we are considerably closer to that inflection point. As positioning cleans up and oversold conditions mature, we expect demand to begin rebuilding in the days ahead, with any additional setbacks likely to prove limited.