LMAX Digital volumes jumped sharply on Thursday, delivering the highest print since November. Total notional volume came in at $839 million, 140% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $506 million, 164% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $130 million, 63% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,875 and average position size for ether at $2,051.

Recent sessions have been marked by rising volatility. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $4,331 and $196 respectively.

Crypto markets have been back in the spotlight on a global scale as losses intensify in recent days, leaving bitcoin more than 50% below its October record high and ETH roughly 65% off its August peak.

While the drawdown feels severe, this kind of volatility is far from unusual for crypto, which has weathered multiple deep corrections throughout its history and gone on each time to recover and print fresh highs.

Notably, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit extreme fear into Friday—levels that have historically coincided with capitulation phases and often marked important market bottoms ahead of powerful rebounds.

We see the current selloff as the product of overlapping forces: expectations became stretched in 2025 around the idea that bitcoin would not revisit sub-$100k levels, Q4 failed to deliver the upside momentum many had priced in, and positioning quickly unwound.

The correction has also been psychologically harder to absorb given that structural progress and mainstream adoption arguably look stronger than ever.

Compounding matters, crypto has struggled to attract incremental inflows even as equities made new highs and metals surged, leaving digital assets isolated in the broader risk landscape, while rising uncertainty around the Fed outlook has further weighed on sentiment.

Ultimately, we view this move as driven by short-term positioning and confidence, not a deterioration in long-term fundamentals—a disconnect that medium- and longer-term investors are likely to see as opportunity.

From a technical perspective, bitcoin has entered a major prior congestion zone from 2024, which should act as a formidable base for an eventual cycle low.

While pinpointing the bottom is impossible, we see scope anywhere between current levels and the August 2024 low near $49k, and do not expect sustained weakness below that area.

Fundamentals continue to strengthen, with real-world adoption accelerating and major financial institutions integrating crypto, stablecoins, and blockchain infrastructure.

Put in perspective, this is volatility we’ve seen before—and history suggests that crypto’s path out of these periods has repeatedly been the same: stabilization, recovery, and ultimately a push to fresh record highs.