LMAX Digital volumes were healthy overall on Tuesday. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $545 million, 27% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $325 million on Tuesday, 48% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $77 million, 7% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,402 and average position size for ether at $2,386.

Bitcoin volatility has fallen back to the lower end of a familiar consolidation range. ETH volatility has gravitated to the lowest levels since November. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $3,123 and $111 respectively.

It’s been a challenging period for cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin and ether experiencing their weakest quarterly performance since 2018. In Q1, bitcoin declined by 12%, while ether faced a more substantial drop of 42%. We attribute this initial weakness to a “sell-the-fact” reaction following the market’s peak optimism after the US election results in November 2024. Subsequently, macroeconomic headwinds triggered another intense wave of selling pressure, as crypto assets struggled to withstand the strain from geopolitical tensions and trade tariff concerns.

Looking forward, we anticipate a significantly more positive outlook for the second quarter and the remainder of 2025. The magnitude of the recent pullback has piqued the interest of medium and long-term investors, who see an appealing opportunity to buy at lower prices. Furthermore, we expect a new surge of institutional adoption to drive increased demand in the coming months.

On the policy front, we anticipate clearer US regulatory guidelines and a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance towards a more accommodating approach, aligning with investor sentiment. Additionally, we foresee a reduction in tensions surrounding US trade policy, which should stimulate a resurgence in demand for risk assets.

From a seasonal perspective, historical trends bode well for bitcoin and ether in the second quarter. Over this period, bitcoin has typically delivered returns of 25%, while ether has demonstrated even more remarkable performance, surpassing 60% gains. With these factors in mind, we remain optimistic about the potential for a robust recovery and growth in the cryptocurrency market throughout the rest of 2025.