LMAX Digital volumes improved from Monday but remained thin overall in a summer light Tuesday session. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $281 million, 29% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $173 million on Tuesday, 28% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $67 million, 30% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,441 and average position size for ether at $2,914.

Market volatility has cooled off after an impressive run higher in early August. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,680 and $143 respectively.

As per today’s technical insights, it’s important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

When we look at recent price action in the context of the weekly chart, it becomes very clear the latest setbacks are nothing more than chop within a bullish consolidation.

As a reminder, seasonality trends were never really on bitcoin’s side in August.

In fact, when looking at median returns since 2013, August is bitcoin’s worst performing month, producing median returns of -7.67%, right around where we are heading into the monthly close.

Unfortunately, data suggests things could continue to be a bit more of a struggle in September. Median returns show September as the second worst performing month at -5.58% from 2013 to present.

And as far as average returns go, September has been bitcoin’s worst performing month, at -4.78% from 2013 to present.

The good news is that all things considered, even if bitcoin were to put in September declines that matched the average negative return for September, the market would still be very comfortably in an uptrend, well above the August low.

The other good news here is that Q4 is far and away bitcoin’s best performing quarter, with October and November often producing exceptional monthly returns.

It’s also worth highlighting the fact that despite the negative performance in September, we did see a positive showing in September 2023.

The arrival of the bitcoin spot ETFs is yet another positive in 2024 that hadn’t been there in the past, which could offer further encouragement that things might not be all that bad in September.