LMAX Digital volumes got off to a slow start this week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $177 million, 70% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $125 million on Monday, 69% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $32 million, 75% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,414 and average position size for ether at 2,355.

Volatility continues to decline to yearly lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,262 and $93 respectively.

There had been some signs of potential relief, with bitcoin trying to break to the topside last week. But all of that momentum has faded away and the pressure remains on the downside.

A recent Bloomberg survey was rather downbeat as well, showing 60% of investors believing bitcoin was more likely to extend declines to $10,000, than to rally back to $30,000.

We like to look at the Fear & Greed Index for possible signs of extreme sentiment. As much as things seem overly bearish right now, the index is still showing plenty of room for deeper setbacks.

Fundamentally, we need to continue to keep an eye on all things global macro. Last week’s strong US NFP print all but seals the deal on a 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed this month, which has fueled broad based demand for the US Dollar.

At the same time, we do believe we’re getting closer to that point in which bitcoin breaks away from correlations with risk off. We contend ongoing instability in traditional markets will highlight the attractive value proposition of bitcoin as a diversification asset.

We also contend positive momentum in the price of bitcoin will serve to benefit the other major cryptocurrencies. But we suspect bitcoin will continue to outperform against the rest of the cryptocurrency market in periods of risk off.