3 February 2025
Seasonal trends point to brighter February
LMAX Digital performance

Total notional volume from last Monday through Friday came in at $3.6 billion, 17% lower than the week earlier.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $2.3 billion, 15% lower than the previous week. Ether volume came in at $384 million, 17% lower than the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $18 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $11,082 and average position size for ether at $2,601.

Market volatility remains elevated and is trending back towards peak levels. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $4,341 and $244 respectively.

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We’re coming out of a January month that was a mixed bag for crypto assets. On the one side, bitcoin traded up 10% while making a fresh record high. On the other side, ETH, the world’s second largest crypto asset struggled to keep pace, closing out lower by about 1%.

Overall, the market has been feeling good about all of the adoption into 2025, along with the warm embrace from the new US administration. At the same time, there is a feeling all of the positives have been priced in and all of the euphoria has faded away.

This has prevented bitcoin from managing a continuation of gains through $110k, while inspiring a subsequent wave of across the board profit taking after some already impressive moves in recent months.

As far as ETH’s struggles go, a lot of this has come from concerns around leadership within the Ethereum community and competition from other chains. Yet overall, Ethereum continues to be the major force when it comes to decentralized finance and smart contracts, with plenty of ETH demand expected into dips.

We’re also seeing some macro headwinds take hold. The market has been increasingly worried about a Federal Reserve that may not have the luxury of being as accommodative as it would like it to be in 2025. This along with disruptions associated with President Trump trade tariffs have invited more downside pressure into February.

With all that said, the outlook remains highly constructive. There has been a clear path set for wider adoption of crypto assets over the coming months and we have even seen the Fed Chair himself recognizing crypto assets and the ability for banks to provide crypto services to clients.

Seasonality trends are also looking up for crypto assets. If we use bitcoin as a proxy, we should expect a strong performance over the next 4 weeks, with February standing out as one of the best months for bitcoin performance. ETH has been even more impressive in the month of February.

Technically speaking, as we continue to highlight, there has been nothing alarming about the latest pullback in bitcoin, with the market well confined to a bullish consolidation range supported around $89k.

LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$4,341
ETHUSD
$244
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