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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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26 October 2026
The anatomy of a shakeout
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Group digital asset volumes were strong in the previous week. Total volume from Monday to Friday came in at $5.7 billion.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $5.2 billion. Ether volume came in at $215 million.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,972 and average position size for ether at $2,687.

Volatility has been in contraction mode since rebounding sharply from its August low. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,060 and $93 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

The crypto market has come under renewed selling pressure heading into the new week, with Bitcoin leading a broader retreat and ETH and other major digital assets suffering even sharper declines.

Weekend weakness has been driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with renewed threats of US military action against Iran triggering a defensive shift in sentiment. Thin weekend liquidity and a wave of leveraged liquidations have amplified the downside, reinforcing an already fragile market backdrop.

The latest developments come at a particularly challenging time for risk assets, with surging oil prices reviving inflation concerns and rising Treasury yields complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

The prospect of further geopolitical escalation has added to uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, while pressure on technology stocks and growing questions surrounding the sustainability of AI investment spending have contributed to a broader deterioration in risk appetite.

Within crypto, the selling has been compounded by inconsistent institutional demand, with renewed outflows from spot Bitcoin and ETH exchange-traded funds undermining confidence.

ETH has been particularly vulnerable to the broader liquidation cycle, while the underperformance of smaller digital assets reflects a continued reluctance among investors to take on additional risk. Nevertheless, the latest weakness appears to be driven more by external macroeconomic pressures and positioning adjustments than by any meaningful deterioration in the underlying digital asset investment thesis.

While the setbacks have undoubtedly been discouraging, we would caution against interpreting the latest decline as evidence that the broader bullish cycle has run its course.

From a technical perspective, the market remains in what we view as a corrective pullback following the impressive advance that began in August and extended into September. We continue to look for the formation of a higher low that would preserve the broader constructive structure and set the stage for an eventual continuation of that earlier run.

Looking ahead, much will depend on whether geopolitical tensions stabilize and whether the upcoming round of central bank decisions can provide some relief from the prevailing macro uncertainty.

A moderation in oil prices, stabilization in bond yields, and renewed institutional inflows would all help restore confidence. For now, short-term downside pressure could persist, but we continue to believe the broader outlook for digital assets remains constructive, with the current correction potentially laying the groundwork for the next meaningful advance.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,060
ETHUSD
$93
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