LMAX Digital volumes were impressive to start the week. Total notional volume came in at $310 million, 45% above 30-day average volume.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $186 million, 67% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $49 million, 45% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,910 and average position size for ether at $1,280.

Volatility is consolidating after a sharp rise out from extremely subdued readings and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,235 and $92 respectively.

Bitcoin is consolidating after gaining 25% in an exceptionally strong August, marking its best August since 2017 and strongest monthly performance overall since November 2024.

The resilience is notable given the increasingly difficult cross-asset backdrop, with higher bond yields, a firmer dollar and renewed geopolitical stress all creating headwinds for risk assets.

The latest pressure has come from the escalation between the United States and Iran, which has pushed Brent crude above $90 and revived concerns about the inflationary consequences of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Combined with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message, the oil shock has lifted Treasury yields and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September. This is limiting immediate upside for Bitcoin, even as dips continue to attract demand.

From a technical perspective, the recent consolidation remains constructive. Severely overbought daily readings are unwinding primarily through time rather than a major correction in price, suggesting the underlying trend remains strong. Bitcoin is holding relatively close to its recent highs while creating additional room for another push higher once the market has fully absorbed August’s advance.

The key upside area remains $80,000 through the May high near $82,820. A sustained break above that zone would confirm a more significant bullish formation and could open an acceleration towards, and ultimately back above, $100,000. Until then, thinner spot activity and some evidence of profit-taking argue for continued consolidation rather than an uninterrupted advance.

Ether is holding around $2,500 and continues to display improved relative strength following its strong August performance. ETH’s participation is an encouraging sign that the recovery is broadening beyond Bitcoin, although both assets will remain sensitive to oil prices, Treasury yields and the dollar.

This week’s US ISM and labor-market data will therefore be important in determining whether tighter policy expectations persist or whether improving liquidity conditions can reassert themselves as the dominant crypto driver.