LMAX Digital volumes got off to a solid start to the week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $708 million, 2% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $356 million, on pace with 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $209 million, 16% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $11,886 and average position size for ether at $3,432.

Bitcoin and ETH volatility have been in cool down since running towards multi-month highs in October. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $3,618 and $205 respectively.

There’s been a lot of talk about a bear market, and sentiment has certainly turned fearful. Yet when we take a step back, the broader picture remains far more constructive and upbeat. Despite recent volatility, nothing has changed in the underlying outlook. The current setbacks have done little to compromise what continues to be a powerful uptrend in bitcoin.

Much attention has recently centered on the 50-week simple moving average, a key indicator many are watching. While we tend to favor the weekly Ichimoku cloud as a more comprehensive gauge of trend, the 50-week SMA sits closer to current price action and therefore serves as the more immediate reference point.

By both measures, bitcoin has been in a sustained uptrend since 2023. Each pullback since that breakout has found strong support near the 50-week SMA, which also roughly aligns with the top of the Ichimoku cloud. On two occasions since 2023, bitcoin briefly slipped below this level, but in both cases, weekly closes recovered swiftly back above it.

At present, the 50-week SMA comes in near $103,000, leaving bitcoin still firmly in an uptrend despite recent softness. Any additional weakness should be viewed as corrective, not structural, and as a compelling opportunity to increase exposure within the prevailing bullish trend.

A dip toward or slightly below the 50-week SMA, as seen in August 2024 and April 2025, would likely attract strong buying interest, particularly this time round, with the major psychological $100k threshold just beneath. Together, these technical layers create an appealing setup for a quick rebound and another weekly close back above the 50-week SMA.

Ethereum should broadly follow bitcoin’s lead, though its trend has been somewhat less pronounced. Even so, ETH notched a fresh record high earlier this year, and the current pullback appears corrective—a pause before the next higher low and leg higher.

Technically, any additional downside should be well supported toward $3,000. Seasonality also supports the case for strength ahead, with Q4 and early Q1 historically delivering strong performance across crypto assets, a pattern that could hold into 2026.

Fundamentally, this has been an exceptional year for crypto—from accelerating adoption and regulatory progress to continued development across protocols and infrastructure. Both bitcoin and Ethereum printing new all-time highs underscore the strength of this trend.

Some of the recent downside pressure can be traced to a less dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, which has temporarily supported the U.S. dollar and shifted yield differentials. However, this appears short-lived. The broader macro pressure remains on a Fed that is more likely to err on the side of accommodation, cutting rates further rather than tightening.

In short, nothing genuinely bearish has occurred. The structure of the uptrend remains intact, setbacks look corrective, and dips into major support levels should continue to present attractive entry opportunities. With both the technical and fundamental backdrops still aligned, the next move should be higher—and likely sooner rather than later.